Hot stove season is hitting it’s stride, and November 17th is one of the relatively hotter days for said proverbial stove in the MLB off-season calendar.
- Rule 5 Draft Protection Date Deadline: Any minor-league players that are eligible to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft (have been in affiliated pro ball for 5 seasons if drafted at age 18 or younger, or 4 seasons if drafted when 19 or older) must be added to the 40-man by November 17.
- Qualifying Offer Deadline: Any players tendered the 1-year, $23.1mm contract (known as a Qualifying Offer) must accept or decline by November 17. Teams that have a QO declined receive draft capital as compensation.
- Owners Meetings: The Owners Meetings will also begin on November 17. These meetings are typically hotbeds of roster rumors and trade news. This year’s meetings will surely be colored by the pending expiration of the labor contract with the MLB Players Association (and associated owner-imposed lockout), so we might expect less trade activity than normal (or more!).
The Mariners have no obvious candidates for Rule 5 protection, per our prospect guru Max Ellingsen. Athletic-but-undersized outfielder Carlos Jimenez is the only top-30 prospect per MLB Pipeline (#25) that is Rule 5 eligible. Other long-shot candidates include a few pitchers: tantalizing-but-oft-injured Teddy McGraw, 29-year-old southpaw Peyton Alford,
and recent Arizona Fall League All-Star Adam Smith..
As for the Qualifying Offer, that one is rather simple. Randy Arozarena, the anchor of the 2026 Mariners’ offense has been tendered his offer and is certain to decline it.
So, as is tradition, let’s burn some of our few hours of daylight by breaking down the current 40-man roster (as of November 12) by looking at each position group, see how this projects to a 26-man roster before this offseason’s free agent and trade acquisitions.
Pitchers: 22
Starting Pitchers: 7
Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Kade Anderson (L), Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, Logan Evans
Not much has changed with the starting rotation from last season. Even after the mid-season trade of Luis Castillo, it is a position group that is ripe for trade rumors, for obvious reasons. The Mariners took several approaches to their embarrassment of riches, including a 6-man rotation, sending Bryce to the pen (and then back), and most notoriously, El Piggyback.
The working assumption is that Gilbert, Woo and Anderson are considered untouchable in these discussions, and Kirby, Hancock and Miller to be on the block. Evans underwent Tommy John surgery in January of 2026, leaving his availability for spring of 2027 in question, but he likely could be ready to provide rotation depth again once stretched out.
Relief Pitchers: 15
RHP: Eduard Bazardo, Matt Brash, C0oper Criswell, Nick Davila, Seranthony Domínguez, Isaac Mattson, Andrés Muñoz, Michael Rucker, Troy Taylor, Carlos Vargas, Cole Wilcox
LHP: José Ferrer, Gabe Speier, Robinson Ortiz
As usual and to be expected at this time of year, the bullpen section of the 40-man is a bit of a slop pile. There is a somewhat-clear top 7 of the depth chart here: Muñoz is the closer, Speier, Ferrer and Brash should be high-leverage options, while Domínguez, Bazardo and Vargas are solid arms to have as early-inning relief. But as the Mariners have seen over the last couple of years, it’s hard to go a full season without dipping deep into the 40-man for reinforcements for the bullpen. In particular, will Seattle run things back with Speier and Ferrer as the lone trusted lefties out of the pen, or will they seek to bolster their southpaw reserves?
Batters: 18
Catchers: 3
Cal Raleigh (S), Jhonny Pereda, Willie MacIver
The Mariners’ front office is likely satisfied with Pereda as their back-up for Raleigh. Raleigh will need to play a lot like more like 2025 & end-stage 2026 Cal, and a lot less like the nightmare that was most of his 2026. Seattle has ample catching depth just off the 40-man in their system, including Boston Smith and Luke Stevenson.
Infielders: 9
Josh Naylor (L), Cole Young (L), Brendan Donovan (L), Colt Emerson (L), Michael Arroyo, Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas (S), Brock Rodden (S), Michael Toglia (S)
Naylor, Young, Donovan and Emerson looks a lot like your starting infield. Arroyo, the little positionless-hitter that could, impressed in his September call up, racking up 0.5 bWAR in 15 games while hitting .371. Expect Arroyo to see plenty of at-bats against left-handed pitchers, spelling Donovan or Young as necessary, or even slotting in to designated hitter. Depending on Donovan’s health and hitting, Arroyo could work himself into a platoon with the veteran infielder, a proposal made more challenging by Donovan’s similar positional uncertainty. Donovan might also project as the primary third baseman once again, but such a decision would be challenging with the club’s ostensible emphasis on defensive improvements.
Outfielders: 6
Julio Rodríguez, Dominic Canzone (L), Lazaro Montes (L), Brennan Davis, Grant McCray (L), Luke Raley (L)
Julio is the anchor here. Montes was as advertised in his September call-up – he struck out so much and hit the ball so far. He will likely rotate through the corners and DH, along with Canzone, who has finally played himself out of platoon jail with a breakout 2026. The fourth outfielder spot likely belongs to Luke Raley, who has shown the ability to hit between stints on the IL. One-time first-round pick Davis would be the 25th or 26th man on the roster today. Both Arroyo and Donovan will play outfield roles as well, as could some of their undersized infielders. Still, it’s worth noting Arroyo will likely miss the start of the season recovering from injury, while Davis, Raley, Donovan, and Canzone are far from bankably clean bills of health. Arozarena’s departure costs Seattle production, of course, but also reliability and availability.
Projected 26-man roster:
SP: Gilbert, Woo, Kirby, Anderson, Hancock, Miller
RP: Muñoz, Speier, Ferrer, Brash, Bazardo, Domínguez, Vargas
C: Raleigh, Pereda
INF: Naylor, Young, Donovan, Emerson, Arroyo, Rivas
OF: Rodríguez, Canzone, Montes, Raley, Davis
Projected Lineup:
- Brendan Donovan (3B)
- Julio Rodríguez (CF)
- Cal Raleigh (C)
- Dominic Canzone (RF)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Cole Young (2B)
- Lazaro Montes (LF)
- Colt Emerson (SS)
- Michael Arroyo (DH)
Free Agency and Trade Priorities:
There is a glaring Randy-shaped hole in the lineup that most observers expect Seattle to fill via free agency or trade. Fellow QO-recipient, Seiya Suzuki, has been a name bandied about as an ideal fit for Seattle, including by our own John Trupin. However, given the proclivities of the front office, trading from the stores of starting pitchers seems more likely. This path makes even more sense given the imminence of Ryan Sloan.
More bullpen depth is needed as well, as there is a lot of question marks and churn-fodder beyond the top 7 or 8 arms. Running with a six-man rotation again seems hard to imagine given the cumulative consequences on the bullpen a season ago, but until a trade is made it’s hard to know if the club is willing to stick Bryce Miller in the bullpen again for a longer look.
If it looks like a questionable group, it seems reasonable that the M’s have been connected to several names already this winter. What it’ll shake out to be remains to be seen.
