There just haven’t been enough games like Saturday’s for the Cubs this year. It wasn’t easy. It never is with this team if they aren’t scoring 10 plus runs. But the pitching was really good save for one rough inning in the fifth that probably wasn’t as bad as it looked, aided by a weird, bad throw from Dansby Swanson on a relay play. That led to one of the two runs that the Cubs did allow in this one to being unearned. Daniel Palencia followed and was terrific. Aaron Civale was a little shaky. Ryan
Zeferjahn is really tough to watch despite clearly immense talent. I’ve not followed his career and haven’t dug into it, but without doing so, I can confidently say that every coach he’s ever has dreamed of a fully unlocked Zeferjahn who might be a truly elite pitcher. Ryan Rolison faced one batter, doing his job and recording a save.
Fun fact, this team has allowed exactly two runs 34 times this year. They are 26-8 (.765) when they do so. I was surprised it was so many games, given the struggles of this pitching staff. They’ve allowed two or fewer 50 times. They have a record of 42-8 in those games. If you mentally shed a tear for this team not having a healthy dose of 2024 Justin Steele, 2025 Cade Horton or 2026 Ben Brown, this is why. I heard it said on the Marquee pregame Saturday that this position player group should have led to a 100-plus win team. It felt so bold. But it’s totally true. With reasonable pitching, this is a 100-plus win team. And that’s why the postseason is not completely hopeless. If they get some pitching, they can win.
On the other side of the ball, the Cubs turned eight hits and three walks and a hit batter into five runs. So slightly less traffic than the night before, but one more run. Two homers and not one. A double to go with it. But more than anything, it was just clustering things together a little better. For the second straight night, the Cubs got largely nothing out of the duo of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman, who have led the way for this team, particularly in the second half. The rest of the lineup was pretty balanced and the offense was a team effort.
It’s been a week now since the last double-digit offensive game. It’s probably not worth a lot of mention, but it seems like the Cubs get one of those every week or 10 days. So that’s probably coming somewhere in the near term. It would be nice to get one of those easier ones and not to have to sweat every inning as this team closes in on clinching a playoff spot and tries to secure the top Wild Card. Regardless, the Cubs will have a chance to win a third straight series on Sunday afternoon and that’s what you want to see. It’s been a welcome bounceback after the nightmare in Milwaukee. As I said following that last game there, this team is very professional. They’ll bounce back and this won’t linger. It was a really good time to be right.
With any luck, this team will just keep on winning series as the season winds down. Win Sunday afternoon, get home and take a series from a Marlins team that is fighting down to the wire despite being eliminated. The Marlins are in San Diego and we’ll catch them coming back east after playing there and in Arizona. That’s a tough trip. Especially when the clock strikes midnight on your season mid trip. Nine-game trips are always hard. But three good teams, a couple of different time zones (that are both different from their home time zone), different styles of play. It’s a lot. Then the Cubs get a Red Sox team that is pretty squarely locked into the second Wild Card spot. They’ll want to be lining up pitching for their Wild Card series which very likely will be against the Yankees. Of course, the Cubs will be getting theirs set too. But the gap between one and six for Cub starters just isn’t massive (which is damning with faint praise).
Anyway, it was a good night in Cincinnati. Seiya Suzuki seems to be coming out of a slump a little bit. Three singles in the last two games. Only one really hit hard, but using the field and having some success. Michael Busch hit a monster homer. Dansby Swanson had his rehab washed out, but save for the weird throw, he looked like he’s ready to contribute. He had a single and a homer of his own. Good to get Dansby back. It’s his defense that provides most of his value. But, Dansby has the mind and approach of a superstar. He doesn’t shy from the biggest moments. That’s not a bad bat to have down at eight or nine in your lineup. This team is better with Dansby on the field. Just as it usually is with Ian Happ on the field. A player need not be a Superstar to produce consistent positive value for a team.
Three Positives:
- Daniel Palencia faced six batters in the sixth and seventh inning. That sixth inning was huge with just a one-run lead and the 2-3-4 hitters due up for the Reds. He was fairly efficient and got a second inning of work. He’s looked better the last couple of times and is maybe re-finding himself just in time.
- Dansby Swanson had a single and a homer, scored twice.
- Michael Busch had a single, a homer and was hit by a pitch. He scored once. He had a really nice homestand before this trip (.316/.417/.526). He hasn’t really hit a groove all year long. Maybe he too is hitting his peak at just the right time?
Game 155, September 19: Cubs 5, Reds 2 (86-69)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Busch (.208). 2-3, HR, HBP, RBI, R
- Hero: Daniel Palencia (.197). 2 IP, 6 BF, 3K
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.128). 2-3, BB, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Tyrone Taylor (-.125). 0-3
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.094). 0-4
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.082). 0-5
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch hit a solo homer with one out in the sixth to give the Cubs a one run lead. (.167)
Reds Play of the Game: JJ Bleday singled with a runner on first and one outs, the Reds down two in the fifth. This is the play where Dansby Swanson threw it past Alex Bregman at third, allowing a run to score. (.149)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 154 Winner: Carson Kelly received just 17 of 43 votes, but with very divided voting, that was enough to win.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +25
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +22.5
- Carson Kelly +17.5
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -16
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Seiya Suzuki -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Scoreboard Watching: The Phillies lost for the second straight night. They fall one game behind the Cubs, while the Padres won and are tied with the Cubs. The Cubs hold tiebreakers over both teams. The Diamondbacks won a game started by Cam Schlittler, finding some offense against him and then walking it off to win. The Arizona win delays the eventual Cub playoff clinch. That’s two this week as they try to keep their very narrow playoff hopes alive. Even with the win, they remain four games behind the Phillies for the last playoff spot.
Up Next: The Cubs finish the series with the Reds. David Peterson (8-8, 5.11) starts for the Cubs. David is 2-1 with a 4.31 over his last seven, including a win last time against the Braves, allowing a run on three hits and three walks over six innings. The general trend for Peterson is about four good starts to every bad one and they are very stratified. So once he gets it going, he usually delivers. Look to see if he can get locked in early in Cincy. Certainly a guy who likes to keep the ball down is a welcome choice in that park. He held the Reds to two runs over five at Wrigley at the end of August. But they also saw him twice as a Met and did quite well against him (nine runs in eight innings of work).
24-year-old Rhett Lowder (6-11, 5.79) has had a rough first full year as a starter (27 appearances, 24 starts). The strain of a long season may be weighing him down as the year draws towards a close. He’s 2-4 with a 7.13 over his last seven games. He’s allowed 45 hits and 12 walks in just 35.1 innings over those seven starts. The Cubs have seen him twice as a starter and once as a reliever. As a starter, he’s allowed six runs in just eight innings of work. The two relief innings were scoreless, though he issued two walks. He and Peterson faced each other in that game in August. Lowder won, despite allowing three runs over five innings. He did a good job that night staying in the strike zone, not walking anyone (the only time he’s done so since July). He hasn’t won since that start at the end of August, losing all three starts (Brewers, Dodgers, Dodgers, ouch).
Get the offense going early and see if you can post some crooked numbers and ride that to a win. Don’t let Lowder settle in and find some of what made him a 7th overall pick in 2023. He’ll probably eventually be a good starter. But how about not now?
