UFC Shanghai is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 23, 2025) inside Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China. In the main event, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight knockout artists collide as Brazil’s Johnny Walker puts his No. 13 ranking on the line against surging Chinese killer, Zhang Mingyang.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in China when the chaotic dust settles.
We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Shanghai betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Shanghai odds here).
Last week’s recap: Our UFC 319 lock cashed as Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Gerald Meerschaert did not go the distance. Oleksiejczuk knocked “GM3” stiff in the first round (watch highlights).
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
In UFC Shanghai’s “Featured” fight, No. 3-seeded Sergei Pavlovich collides with surging Heavyweight, Waldo Cortes Acosta, in a fight that could be fun or … a snore.
This week, I’m locking in Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta To Go Over 1.5 Rounds at -180.
Here’s why:
Pavlovich is widely considered one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the division. He’s blasted through most of his opponents inside the first round with terrifying efficiency. But, in his last two outings, he hasn’t shown that danger at all; in fact, he has been hesitant, forced to fight behind his jab and use measured pressure. It is like Tom Aspinall took his killer instinct away, and then Alexander Volkov shattered his confidence as he landed fewer than 100 significant strikes in his last three fights.
Against Cortes-Acosta, that same patience could be on display.
Cortes-Acosta may not have Pavlovich’s one-punch power, but he’s an incredibly tough and disciplined Heavyweight who has never been finished in his professional career. His boxing is clean, his jab is steady and his defense is good enough to avoid early firefights. “Salsa Boy” has a knack for making fights gritty and methodical, and even when he loses rounds, he’s not the type to fold quickly. That kind of durability bodes well for pushing Pavlovich deeper into the fight.
If Pavlovich wins, it may not be with his trademark 90-second knockout, but rather by chipping away, testing Cortes-Acosta’s defenses, and eventually breaking him down after the seven-minute mark. Conversely, if Cortes-Acosta can extend the fight, his volume and composure could frustrate Pavlovich into a longer, more tactical battle.
What could go wrong?
Let’s be honest — Pavlovich has the type of power that can ruin bets in seconds. If he comes out swinging like the Pavlovich of old, the “Over 1.5” could be toast before fans even settle into their seats. Indeed, one clean right hand could end Cortes-Acosta’s unbeaten chin in a flash. Still, given both men’s recent tendencies, the over looks like solid value at -180.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user is riding with Cortes-Acosta:
- Sergei Pavlovich To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +110
- Sergei Pavlovich To Win By Submission: +2500
- Sergei Pavlovich To Win By Decision: +250
- Draw: +5000
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +500
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta To Win By Submission: +2500
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta To Win By Decision: +550
LIVE! Stream UFC Shanghai On ESPN+
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Where to Buy:
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Shanghai fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 6 a.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Shanghai: “Walker vs. Zhang” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
