Plenty of surprises have arisen a month into the NBA season.
The middle of the East, in particular, has been better than expected. All three of Philly, Miami, and Toronto occupy playoff or play-in spots,
when the Heat were the only ones who made it last year.
So, what’s changed? In Philly, it’s been a changing of the guard.
The Process is reaching its end
Currently the 8th seed with a 9-7 record, the Sixers have been better than expected — especially when factoring in Embiid’s form. Even with a good start, the Sixers are still searching for an identity that fits both Embiid and their young guns, since the big fella’s style is in direct contrast to how Edgecombe and Maxey want to play.
Due to his lumbering style, Philly’s transition frequency is an abysmal 12.6% (4th percentile) when Embiid is on the court, which skyrockets to 17% (74th) when he sits. To his credit, the Sixers are still a much better offensive team with him playing, in both transition and half-court settings: Philly has a 124.8 offensive rating when Embiid plays (94th percentile), which plummets to 116.1 (50th) without him.
Even with all his injuries, Embiid still has elite touch and footwork and can generate a good look for himself in all areas of the court. However, his efficiency has dipped significantly, as Embiid’s shooting just 43% from the mid-range when he was in the high 40s during his MVP contention years. His shot diet is even more concerning, as the big man is attempting just 19% of his shots in the short mid-range when his career norm is around 27%. It’s quite evident that Embiid just doesn’t have the lift to finish confidently around the basket anymore, like when he barely got off the ground on a failed dunk(?) attempt against the Raptors.
Embiid has 0 dunks so far this season in 140 minutes of action, and he’s also passing on opportunities that he wouldn’t have in years past.
Defense is an even bigger problem. The Sixers are giving up 124.6 points per 100 possessions (8th percentile) with Embiid on the floor, and 113.7 (61st) without him. Some of that discrepancy is due to shooting variance, as opposing teams are making a ludicrous 60% (0 percentile) of their midrangers when Embiid plays, and just 39.2% (84th) when he sits. Still, Philly’s opponents have found ways to punish Embiid’s defensive deficiencies, like prioritizing running whenever he’s on the floor: the Sixers are allowing transition opportunities on 20.1% of opposing plays (3rd percentile) with a defensive rating of 169.1 (0 percentile).
Embiid’s rim protection (or lack thereof) is also an issue given the decline in his movements. Opponents are shooting 63% against him within 6 feet of the basket, which is 1.6% higher than their expected rates. Yet, Philly as a whole has done a good job of insulating Embiid when he plays, as the team is conceding just 62.5% of opponent shots around the rim, which ranks in the 79th percentile league-wide. The big man still attempts to contest shots in his vicinity, but he’s so ground-borne now that it often doesn’t make a difference.
Take the play below as an example. Embiid’s sheer size results in Buzelis missing the initial shot, but the big man likely blocks that shot three years ago. He also doesn’t have the agility anymore to get back in position and contest Vucevic’s tip.
Overall, I’m not sure if Embiid’s even a positive for the Sixers when he plays. The offense is undoubtedly better, but his presence grounds their usual fast-paced attack to a halt, and the entire team turns stagnant to watch him iso when they want to be sprinting around screens for hand-offs. The defense should be better when the opponent shooting normalizes, but again, do the Sixers want to continue disrupting their rhythm to cater to a player whose status is perpetually in question?
Even with the uncertainty, one thing is for sure: the Sixers are no longer Joel Embiid’s team. Edgecombe’s emergence and Maxey’s leap into superstardom has finally allowed Philly to turn the page on an era full of what-ifs, even if the remnants of that time still linger.
The Zombie Heat are back
Somehow, Palpatine the Heat have returned.
Buried by many due to their turbulent previous season, Miami is 10-6 and firmly occupies a playoff spot in the East. Much of their revival can be attributed to the implementation of an offensive system that is contrary to what every other team runs following their hiring of Noah Laroche as a team consultant.
For starters, the Heat have given up on pick-and-rolls. Miami is last in shots taken directly from P&Rs per game at 5.7, which is less than half of what Memphis ran last year, who employed the same system under Laroche and ranked last as well.
Instead of relying on P&Rs, the Heat prioritize off-ball movement and drives. Miami is only second to Chicago in drives per game at 59.8, and they use movement and cutting to confuse the defense and open up lanes to the basket.
Take the play below as an example. Davion Mitchell drives to collapse the defense before kicking it out to Jaime Jaquez Jr., who swings it to Bam to drive and finish. Notice that all five players start on the perimeter to ensure that the paint is clear, and Pelle Larsson cuts to confuse the defense while also giving Bam an option to kick out for three.
By deleting P&Rs from their playbook, the Heat have essentially given up the most common play in basketball in favor of space and off-ball movement, as they lead the league in pace at 106.45. For reference, the difference between Miami and #2-ranked Chicago (104.15) is larger than the difference between Chicago and #12-ranked Atlanta (101.94), and the Heat are playing at the fastest pace in almost 35 years.
Miami uses their pace to catch teams off guard and open up driving lanes. The Heat lead the league in shot attempts within the first 9 seconds of the shot clock, many of which come when the opposing defense hasn’t had time to get set yet. Even in pure half-court settings, Miami still sprints around as a five-man unit, as can be seen below. The Heat love to swing the ball around the perimeter while each player rotates on the baseline and sidelines to get the defense moving, and as soon as someone sees an opening, they’ll drive in for a shot or kick out to an open shooter.
Even though they’re 22nd in three-point attempts, Miami’s new scheme gives all players the green light to pull from deep if the opportunity arises. Bam, for instance, is now attempting 5.6 shots from deep per game when his previous career high was 2.8, and he’s hitting them at a 37.5% clip too.
Playing such a free and egalitarian style has reignited the Heat (culture), and a team that’s had such a porous attack over the past few seasons now finds itself 11th in offensive rating. Given that Tyler Herro is yet to play, this Miami team could get even better throughout the season, and Erik Spoelstra has once again demonstrated why he’s the best coach in the league.
Jurassic Park is open again
Like Miami, Toronto has also exceeded expectations by utilizing speed. The Raptors are first league-wide in transition frequency at 20.5%, and the difference between them and #2-ranked Orlando (18.1%) is as large as the difference between Orlando and #15-ranked Portland (15.7%). Naturally, you’d expect them to be similarly elite in pace, but Toronto curiously only ranks 10th in that area.
What gives?
Well, the Raptors have successfully implemented a hybrid offensive system that’s able to shapeshift depending on the situation. They’re more than happy to play in the half-court: in fact, Toronto’s 104.3 half-court offensive rating is second in the league, and they’ve accomplished this by playing to the strengths of their best players.
Immanuel Quickley, an elite shooter, is attempting 50% of his shots from deep, which is his highest percentage since his days in New York. Toronto as a whole, though, is only attempting 33.4% of their shots from three, which is 27th league-wide. Darko knows that Quickley is the only consistent shooter in the starting lineup and gives him the green light to fire hang pulls from treball, but he uses his remaining players in other ways to succeed.
For example, Darko’s letting Brandon Ingram attempt 54% of his shots from mid-range, which is in line with his prime Pelicans days. However, Ingram’s isolation frequency is also amongst the lowest of his career, since he’s being put in better positions to get off his favourite shots.
The Raptors love running Ingram around screens to get extra daylight on his pull-ups, instead of forcing him to go one-on-one against the opposing team’s best perimeter defender.
If teams are guarding this action well, Toronto could then use the threat of Ingram’s pull-up to open up other opportunities like lobs.
It’s not a coincidence that Ingram’s making a career high 54% of his mid-rangers (88th percentile), and he’s not the only one being put in favorable situations. Both Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett are thriving too, especially in transition. They lead the league in transition points per game as a duo at just under 14, and the Raptors are prioritizing finding either player after securing defensive rebounds.
Barnes, especially, has taken another leap and seems poised to make his second All-Star game. The extra talent around him has allowed him to scale back his offensive load, as his 23.9% usage (86th percentile) is the lowest since his sophomore campaign. As a result, Barnes’ 56% eFG% is the highest of his career, while his 11.4% turnover rate is the lowest over his young career too. Barnes’ diminished offensive role has allowed him to fully realize his defensive potential as well, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make an All-Defense team this year.
Toronto is shockingly just one of two teams (OKC) in the league whose offensive and defensive ratings are both ranked in the top 5, but there are a few red flags that indicate regression is coming. For starters, the Raptors continue to be under water when their Mid Three of Barnes, Ingram, and Barrett share the court, as they’ve accumulated a -2.4 net rating (118.4 ORTG, 120.8 DRTG) in 598 possessions together. Much of their success has been propped up by an elite bench mob spearheaded by Jamal Shead and Spurs legend Mamu, but relying on the second unit to win back minutes lost by the team’s best trio isn’t a formula for success. Toronto’s defense has also been propped up by their opponents making just 32% of their threes (second lowest league-wide), and the Raptors’ own long-range sniper, Dick, has also lost his stroke, as he’s splashing on just 33.3% of his attempts while lasting just 16.8 minutes a night (the fewest of his career).
Still, the buy-in from the players to their versatile scheme is real, and I expect them to finish the season above average on both ends of the court. That should be enough to keep Toronto in the hunt for a top-six seed in the East and numb the pain of the Blue Jays’ season — somewhat.
This week, please check out Stephen Michael’s article on how Wemby first caught the eye of the basketball world! He does a great job of briefly discussing the Frenchman’s origins while also showcasing his otherworldly defensive impact.
Thanks for reading, and have a great week!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
