NBA Draft Big Board: Bullets Forever’s definitive rankings

In just a few days, the Washington Wizards go on the clock in the 2026 NBA Draft with the chance to select a franchise cornerstone who will lead them for the next decade plus. They chose a great time to hit the lottery, so to speak because this year’s draft class is loaded at the top.

According to Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short), which is the basis for the rankings below, the 2026 draft is stocked with:

4 players with a YODA score consistent with being the top pick in just about any draft
12 players have grades that would usually get them in the top five
35 players have “draftable” grades, which is roughly eight more than “normal.”

If the next couple drafts are as weak as they’re reputed to be — I don’t have the resources

to evaluate those classes — it would seem to be a good time to trade future picks for additional slots in 2026.

Before I dive into the rankings, a few words on YODA. As previously mentioned, YODA is based purely on publicly available statistics and data. I sometimes watch video here and there, especially if there’s a major mismatch between a player’s ranking by the experts and what YODA is saying.

For example, when YODA had Tyrese Haliburton number two overall, and the consensus mocks had him going later, I dug in a bit. Ditto when YODA had Jae Crowder as a top pick, and the mocks had him in the second round. The current version of YODA wouldn’t have had Crowder that high, by the way — since then I’ve tinkered with how the algorithm handles age, level of competition, and physical tools.

Anyway, YODA uses standard box score stats per 40 minutes, as well as measures and times from the Draft Combine, and then research-derived adjustments for age and level of competition. I used to have an adjustment I called “Intangibles,” which was intended to give a small bump to guys who did things like make All-Defense teams or dings to guys who got hurt.

Because I believe that a strategy that melds scouting, the kind of intel people like Jonathan Givony gather by traveling everywhere and talking to everyone, and statistical analysis, I’ve dumped the “intangibles” and replaced it with an adjustment based on a player’s rank in the Rookie Scale consensus mock draft. The “scout” score is calibrated to not overwhelm the statistical signal. In practice, it’ll move a player up or down a few slots but won’t bump someone with terrible stats to the top five.

All that information gets rolled into a single score, which determines the rankings.

Note: While we’re billing this as “definitive rankings,” others at Bullets Forever likely have different opinions, and I reserve the right to make adjustments right up until draft day. I’ve run data on enough players to assemble the board, but I still have more work to do on fringe prospects.

After each player’s school or international team/league, I’ve included where they rank in the Rookie Scale Consensus Mock Draft.

The 2026 NBA Draft According to YODA

Cameron Boozer, F | Duke | RS: 3— Every stat-based system has Boozer at the top, and it’s easy to see why — his stats are great. No real weakness — he converts inside, hits threes, makes his free throws, rebounds, assists without a lot of turnovers, and doesn’t foul. His 1.7 steals per 40 minutes are high for a forward. He measured well (solid height and plus wingspan), though his athletic scores at the combine were only around average. It’d be nice if he blocked shots. All that said, prospects with similar YODA scores were almost uniformly terrific NBA players.
AJ Dybantsa, F | BYU | RS: 1 — Impressive scorer with good agility (though not good enough times to earn a coveted bonus in YODA) and outstanding leaping ability. Great size and skills — if he is indeed the number one pick, as the FanDuel odds indicate, I suspect Wizards fans would be very happy. In virtually any draft, he’d be the top pick.
Caleb Wilson, F | UNC | RS: 4 — Long and athletic, efficient offense despite shooting just 25.9% on threes. Wilson’s true calling card is defense, which shows in his rebounding and defensive playmaking. In a normal draft, an NBA team would be happy to pick him first overall. Someone will get him third or fourth, most likley.
Darryn Peterson, G | Kansas | RS: 2 — Big guard with solid athletic tools (he didn’t pop at the combine) who had an up and down year at Kansas and still posted numbers consistent with being the top pick in most drafts. This guy’s good, though YODA does estimate a step down from the first three to Peterson.
Keaton Wagler, G | Illinois | RS: 5 — Finally, YODA and the experts agree on something! Wagler’s numbers reveal a superb shooter (39.7% from deep) who had some issues finishing inside (sub-50% on twos). He rebounded well for a guard and produced assists without elevated turnovers. A concern: anemic steals (just 1.1 per 40) and no blocks to speak of.
Darius Acuff Jr., G | Arkansas | RS: 6 — What did YODA just mooch these rankings from Rookie Scalle? I’d heard alleged that Acuff is too small to excel in the NBA, and then he went and scored right about average for size at the combine. Strengths: great shooting (44% on threes), playmaking without turnovers. He’s an offensive engine. Weaknesses: very low steals and blocks — often signals of defensive effort and awareness, and of applied athleticism.
Allen Graves, F | Santa Clara | RS: 23 — Kind of a value Boozer. Makes shots from everywhere. Good rebounds and assists. Tons of steals (3.4 per 40) and 1.7 blocks. He played against relatively weaker competition, so he needed to dominate, which he did. The concern: poor agility scores at the combine calls into question his ability to step up to NBA competition. So, while I kinda understand the No. 23 ranking, YODA still think he’s better than that.
Kingston Flemings, G | Houston | RS: 8 — Small guard with elite athletic tools — blazing speed, great leaper. Good statistical profile — strong shooting, production across the board. Despite the diminutive stature, he looks likely to be a good NBA player.
Brayden Burries, G | Arizona | RS: 10 — SHOOTER — 56% on twos, 39% on threes, 80% on free throws. Plus solid rebounding for a guard, some playmaking, and 2.0 steals per 40. He’d be top five in most drafts, at least according to YODA>
Morez Johnson, C | Michigan | RS: 16 — The consensus favors his teammates Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, but YODA prefers Johnson’s plus athletic tools, good shooting (including flashes of three-point range), rebounding, and defensive playmaking.
Mikel Brown Jr., G | Louisville | RS: 7 — Impressive athlete with a good rebounds and assists. The offensive efficiency was relatively low, his three-point shooting was meh, and the assists came with elevated turnovers. He posted good-not-great steal numbers for someone with his athletic tools. That’s all in terms relative to his competitors — he still had a YODA score that would have put him in the top 5-7 of most drafts.
Labaron Philon Jr., G | Alabama | RS: 14 — Superb shooter and playmaker who had a 2:1 assists-to-turnovers ratio. He was efficient and high usage — both a volume scorer and a guy who set up his teammates. The concern: a subpar combine where his agility times were bad enough to earn a ding, and his vertical was below average.
Sergio de Larrea, G | Valenica | RS: 33 — The first major disagreement between YODA and consensus, and he could move some if combine scores become available. Looking at the numbers, I’m not sure why consensus is so low on de Larrea. He didn’t shoot great in Euro League, but he rebounded (9.6 per 40), assisted, and got steals and blocks. The statistical markers for athleticism are all positive. Potential negatives: just 34.5% on threes and 70.0% from the free throw line, plus 3.3 turnovers per 40. Of course, that was still almost a 2:1 ast/tov ratio.
Yaxel Lendeborg, F | Michigan | RS: 12 — Super production across the board — outstanding efficiency and good defensive numbers, and he’s big for a forward, suggesting he could succeed as an ultra-skilled center. He’s this low because he’s already 23-years-old, which brings into question whether his production was a result of being a great player or dominated because he was 2-4 years older than most of his competitors. His measured vertical at the combine wasn’t good.
Ebuka Okorie, G | Stanford | RS: 24 — Efficient volume scorer who was also willing to setup teammates, do some rebounding, and defend a bit. Not eye-popping athletic tools, but big, quick, good leaper. Interesting prospect.
Trevon Brazile, F | Arkansas | RS: 40 — Another older prospect (23.5 on draft day), but he’s huge, agile, and leaps great. He converts inside (65% on twos), rebounds, and defends like crazy (1.9 steals and 2.0 blocks per 40). If he’s really available in the second round, it would be worth buying a pick to take him.
Christian Anderson, G | Texas Tech | RS: 20 — Three things pop out; shooting (excellent), assists (very good), steals (decent). Okay, a fourth thing — the assists came without elevated turnovers — a 2:1 ast/tov ratio.
Richie Saunders, G | BYU | RS: 38 — Another older prospect — Saunders is almost 25 already. If a good team is looking for a plug-and-play reserve, he might fit the bill — good size, excellent shooting, strong production across the board.
Hannes Steinbach, C | Washington | RS: 14 — Rebounds — especially the offensive variety, converts inside, even hit a few threes on low volume. Doesn’t block many shots. Almost no assists.
Zuby Ejiofor, C | St. John’s | RS: 28 — Got a YODA bonus for his vertical, which is important because he’s undersized to play center — which he’ll have to do in the NBA. High assists for a center (4.7 per 40), plus blocked shots. Assists from a big man are often signal defensive awareness.
Cameron Carr, W | Baylor | RS: 18 — Big and hyper-athletic. Decent shooting from three and 60+% on twos. Rebounding numbers are solid, and he got nearly two blocks per 40 as a wing, which is very good. Just 1.0 steal per 40.
Nate Ament, F | Tennesee | RS: 11 — Some mocks have him going in the top 10, though I’m not sure why. He shot just 43% on twos (not good), and 33% on threes. He got some rebounds and assists, though the board work wasn’t dominant, and the assists came with an almost equal number of turnovers.
Koa Peat, F | Arizona | RS: 25 — Solid prospect with a decent chance of being a good pro if he works hard in the right place.
Dailyn Swain, W | Texas | RS: 23 — Solid numbers across the board. I would have liked to see better three-point shooting and fewer turnovers. I suspect he could be productive in the right NBA role.
Meleek Thomas, G | Arkansas | RS: 27 — A mixed bag of messages in the numbers. Slow with a good three-point percentage, but trouble converting from two-point range. Meh rebounding and assists, but 2.0 steals per 40 — and very few turnovers. He profiles as a 3&D type, if he can bring the athleticism necessary to play strong defense.
Duke Miles, G | Vanderbilt | RS: 66 — I know this is probably crazy. The first year I ran YODA, the algorithm fell in love with a small senior guard who the Spurs picked late in the second round. He broke his foot, went overseas and never made it back to the NBA. Miles might be that guy this year. He’s 24 already and he shot just 34.8% from three. But he rebounded, assisted, and produced loads of steals (3.5 per 40 — highest in the draft).
Chris Cenac Jr., C | Houston | RS: 22 — Agile big man with some shooting ability from three. Solid rebounder. Almost never got the free throw line. Didn’t block shots.
Isaiah Evans, W | Duke | RS: 26 — Slow, solid shooting, some all-around production. Duke players have tended to perform well at the NBA level, so he’s a candidate to out-perform where YODA has him rated.
Izaiyah Nelson, C | South Florida | RS: 50 — Almost 23, but Nelson plugs into a rim-running, rebounding, defending role immediately. He averaged 2.4 steals and 2.1 blocks. Just limit him to dunking and getting shots from the offensive glass.
Tarris Reed, C | Connecticut | RS: 31 — Rebounds, blocks, finishing inside.
Bruce Thornton, G | Ohio St. | RS: 45 — Poor agility times at the combine, but great shooting.
Aday Mara, C | Michigan | RS: 9 — Outstanding size, strong rebounding and blocks. He also measured out as a poor athlete (by NBA standards) and he committed lots of turnovers and fouls. While of similar size, he isn’t like Zach Edey, whose agility was solid for a big.
Ugonna Onyenso, C | Virginia | RS: 41 — Long, agile, great shot blocking (6.3 per 40).
Tobe Awaka, C | Arizona | RS: 64 — Grabbed 17.4 rebounds per 40 but didn’t block many shots.
Tamin Lipsey, G | Iowa St. | RS: 61 — Kinda impressive that he could get this high at 23-years-old while shooting just 31.4% from three. He did with better than 3:1 ast/tov ratio and high steals. Interesting prospect for a team looking for a backup guard.

So, that’s the list of guys with draftable scores in YODA this year. It could shuffle around a bit. Here’s a list of prospects with borderline YODA scores — close enough to think they might still be NBA contributors: