Where have we heard this before? An elite hitting outfielder is traded to a new team a year before he is expected to get a giant payday, and then hits the open market the following fall. Like Juan Soto in November 2024, Kyle Tucker is reaching the open market after spending his contract year in new threads. Unlike Soto, however, Tucker’s season with the Cubs was a relative down year for his lofty standards. Regardless, the former Astro and 2022 champion logged his fourth consecutive All-Star campaign
and collected his second Silver Slugger win. He heads to free agency two months ahead of his 29th birthday.
The Yankees fell short in their pursuit of Soto last December, but they always liked their chances given the full year they had to sell him on coming back—and owner Hal Steinbrenner on an everyday example of why he deserved the Brink’s truck of moolah. That obviously isn’t the case with Tucker, and it isn’t clear just how far the Bombers would go to woo him. There’s no doubt, however, that he is the crown jewel of the 2025-26 free agent class.
2025 Statistics: 136 games, 597 PA, .266/.377/.462 (136 wRC+), 22 HR, 73 RBI, -2 OAA, 4.5 fWAR
2026 FanGraphs Depths Charts Projections: 152 games, 658 PA, .268/.371/.482 (136 wRC+), 29 HR, 86 RBI, 4.4 fWAR
Tucker’s numbers, particularly in the second half, were slowed down by a couple of injuries—reportedly a finger fracture and a calf strain. The latter ailment came in September and caused him to miss time. While he returned in time for the postseason, he still appeared to be fighting through the injury and was not the threatening middle-of-the-order presence the Cubs needed him to be. Still, Tucker’s first-half stats, in which he posted an .882 OPS with 17 home runs en route to the All-Star Game, feel like a more honest predictor of the kind of production his suitors can expect across his next few prime seasons should he stay healthy.
The beginning of his prime was eye-popping enough. Tucker broke out for Houston in 2021 with a 30-homer campaign en route to an AL pennant, showcasing for the first time a high-damage, low-strikeout approach which would help him accrue 23.4 FanGraphs WAR from 2021 to 2025, 10th among all MLB hitters over that span. Tucker routinely ranks among the best hitters from year to year in terms of quality of contact, and has never topped a 16 percent strikeout rate at a time where the league average K rate has hovered around 22 percent. Additionally, unlike many left-handed hitters, Tucker is essentially platoon neutral, making him extraordinarily tough to pitch around.
Tucker’s defensive performances have been more uneven. While he took home a Gold Glove in the outfield back in 2022, he graded out quite poorly on defense the following season, as well as this year with the Cubs (2024 was better in limited action). Somewhat like Soto, Tucker has never been blessed with outstanding foot speed, and in recent years he has struggled with his jumps. His route running is decently efficient, but without great burst speed, he has had trouble catching up to flies and liners which he would ordinarily be expected to track down. Foot speed has a harsher aging curve than most other attributes, so while Tucker’s arm is quite strong, his range may continue to decline going forward.
Despite lacking elite agility, Tucker is a responsible baserunner who has racked up 25 stolen bases in three seasons, including 2025. Going back to that five year stretch, he has graded out positively in Statcast Baserunning Runs in every year except 2024, a year which was cut short by injury.
As for Tucker’s fit in pinstripes, Yankee Stadium would certainly be friendly to his pull-heavy approach. His already impressive power numbers could stand to be boosted by a Short Porch shot or two. The man has firsthand experience with it, too.
The Yankees would certainly love his ability to make consistent contact, as they perpetually look to shift away from the high-strikeout, all-or-nothing qualities which repeatedly sunk them in prior postseason runs, including some against Tucker’s Astros. There would be room for him on the roster, as fellow outfielders Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham both just entered free agency themselves.
One potential sticking point arises in the fact that Tucker has been strictly a right fielder his entire career. This is, of course, Aaron Judge’s position, so signing Tucker would require one of the two to move off right field permanently. Tucker is younger and therefore may have a better long-term prognosis in the field, and it’s difficult to imagine a soon-to-be-34-year-old Judge sliding over to center again (particularly long-term) as he did when Soto came aboard in 2024. That said, it feels equally difficult to envision that the Yankees would force their captain to move off his marquee position; besides, he graded out better defensively than Tucker did last season.
In all likelihood, if the Yankees signed Tucker, they would be asking him to shift to left field, a position he actually played in this year’s All-Star Game, but no other contest since 2020. This complicates their pitch, since other potential suitors for his services—such as the Cubs, Phillies, Giants, or even the Dodgers—would be able to offer him his natural, more comfortable outfield spot.
Then, of course, there’s the money. Thanks to his rather underwhelming contract year, it seems unlikely that Tucker will become the fourth player in league history to land a $500 million deal, but $400 million or more is well within the realm of possibility. MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Tucker will get $400 million total across an 11-year deal, which would take him through his age-39 season; for other ideas, FanGraphs suggested 10/$380M, ESPN offered 11/$418M, and The Athletic even went to 12/$460M.
The Yankees are certainly among the teams capable of offering Tucker such a lavish amount, but it’s easy to doubt that they would. The organization threw their whole body weight behind their attempt to sign Soto, but aside from him they have shied away from making such pitches to similar superstars in the past. For example, the Yankees never made a serious play to sign Bryce Harper, another right fielder who reached free agency before age 30. Maybe they were expecting to swoop in if Harper’s market collapsed, but they never appeared willing to pay him full price, which the Phillies ultimately did.
I don’t think the Yankees are likely to sign Kyle Tucker, but if they did, it would mark the ultimate all-in move. The team is already banking on breaking through with a championship within the next few seasons as the eventual end of Aaron Judge’s prime looms closer. Signing Tucker would also be a refutation of Steinbrenner’s repeated emphasis on more sustainable payrolls. It isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility—nothing for the Yankees is—but they don’t have the strongest pitch to offer Tucker, and would most likely tap out if his asking price gets too high.
