10-year NFL draft history: Trading down out of Top 10 has worked most of the time

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - APRIL 24: Defensive Tackle Mason Graham of Michigan poses after being selected fifth overall pick by the Cleveland Browns during the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field on April 24, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Image

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What is the story about?

For Cleveland Browns fans, trading down has become a very polarizing topic. For those who are for it, especially in the 2026 NFL draft, it is all about value, opportunities (bites at the apple), and making a wise value decision. For those who are against it, drafting the top guys is always a good decision and the Browns history of trading down is just putrid.

Most Cleveland fans can point to any number of bad decisions, which often actually are not about the trading down but about the actual players

selected. So far, last year’s move from the second to the fifth pick for DT Mason Graham, RB Quinshon Judkins, and the 24th pick in the 2026 NFL draft has looked good. That doesn’t mean history will repeat itself.

While many point back to the Julio Jones trade, the last decade has seen most of the trade downs out of the Top 10 to be mostly successful for teams, besides the Browns in 2016:

(The original poster noted they made a mistake with the Jalen Carter trade noted here, which was a small trade up)

In general, most would take the players on the right side of that chart over the ones on the left. In some areas, it might be closer than others, but as a whole, trading back in the Top 10 has been a successful endeavor recently.

That isn’t to say that Cleveland GM Andrew Berry should make another trade back. As they say in finance, past performance is not indicative of future success. It does, however, provide a different picture than the one that Browns fans are generally focused on when it comes to trading down. On the other side, we do not know the moves that were not made due to value or choosing a top player over moving back.

The last decade shows us one thing: Teams can be successful trading back in the Top 10 of the NFL draft. While that is helpful information, it should not and does not inform Cleveland’s decision in 2026.

What do you think when you look back at the recent Top 10 trades? Does it impact your thoughts at all on trading back in general or in this year’s draft?