Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday, breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason.
Today, we look at Luka Dončić.
Even with the trade nearly six months in the rearview mirror, it’s hard to fathom that the Lakers are in this position.
This time last year, the questions surrounding the Lakers involved whether the championship window with LeBron James and Anthony Davis still existed and whether the team should go all in if so. The hope was that AD would take the proverbial torch and lead the franchise into the post-LeBron era, though that remained to be seen.
Now, there’s no question about who the present and future of the Lakers revolves around. And it’s not LeBron.
Luka Dončić is the epicenter of the franchise and will hold that role likely for the better part of the next decade. As he goes, the Lakers will go. It’s a role he’s familiar with, though it will come in a new jersey and a new city now.
The Lakers, themselves, are very familiar with having a star to build around. No franchise has a longer list of superstars with a who’s who of Hall of Famers having come through LA throughout their career.
On paper, this should be a fruitful partnership. But how soon will it start bearing fruit? Well, if you took a look at Luka this summer, it certainly feels like that could be very soon.
What is his best-case scenario?
When Luka is at his best, he’s not only in the argument for best player in basketball, but he might be the frontrunner. At his best, he took the Mavericks to the NBA Finals and we’re barely more than a year removed from that run.
Everything about his summer would suggest he’s primed to do it all over again. His offseason media tour led to plenty of talk about how in-shape he was, but his work in EuroBasket was proof of concept.
After doing so much on the fly last season, Luka and the Lakers should have a much more symbiotic relationship this year. It leads to Luka at his best and the Lakers looking like a legitimate contender.
Reinvigorated and rejuvenated, Luka looks not just like his 2023-24 self, but even better, resulting in an MVP award. Now in better shape, he’s able to mix the athleticism he had early in his career with the knowledge and IQ he’s developed after years in the NBA, resulting in a nearly unstoppable season.
Statistically, we’ve seen what a dominant Luka largely looks like. During that 2023-24 season, he shot a career-best 38.2% from the 3-point line while averaging 33.9 points per game. Even if he can’t quite reach those raw output numbers, the efficiency can still be there and if he leads the Lakers toward the top of the standings in a stacked Western Conference, that would certainly still help make a strong case.
Perhaps most important to the Lakers specifically, Luka playing at that level should afford the team the opportunity to rest LeBron more, allowing him to be in better physical shape heading into the postseason.
A healthy LeBron rested for the playoffs paired with an MVP-level Luka? No one would want to face them in a seven-game series.
What is his worst-case scenario?
Realistically, things going wrong for Luka this season probably have as much to do with the players around him as anything else.
In theory, an injury could derail him again, but, as I’ve said before, that would be an obvious answer for any player. Outside of that, Luka’s version of bad is much different than other players’ versions of bad. Last year was, effectively, the worst season of Luka’s career and Lakers faithful saw how good that still was.
A better look at a bad Luka season would be if the Lakers made the wrong moves to utilize him. What does his play look like if he and Reaves don’t complement each other? Or if Marcus Smart isn’t the defender the team hopes he is? Or if Deandre Ayton is more of his Blazers version than his Suns version?
In that sense, a worst-case scenario season for Luka is one in which he isn’t maximized and the Lakers struggle accordingly. Even if he is a younger superstar with many years in front of him, the aim for the franchise should be to put him and the team in the best position for success each year.
What is his most likely role on the team?
It’s hard not to be extremely optimistic about Luka heading into this season. With what he showed in EuroBasket, he looks primed for a big, big season.
Given time to actually build around him both in terms of roster construction and coaching philosophy, there are plenty of reasons to believe this will be a big year for him and the team. It’s realistic to think, then, that he’ll be competing for an MVP.
And if he’s playing at that level, then it’s going to be great news for the Lakers.
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
