I will look at some brief tid bits about the Astros.
1. Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez returned about 10 days ago from extensive time on the injured list. Since then, Yordan has been really hot on offense. How hot? Below are the league rankings over the last 14 days (20 PA minimum):
- wRC+ No. 1 .271
- OBP No. 1 .595
- AVG No. 1 .500
- SLG No. 6 .786
- BB% No. 6 21.6%
- x-SLG No. 2 .926
- x-BA No. 1 .454
- EV90 No. 1 113.3 mph
That’s pretty impressive. Small sample and all. But Alvarez has returned at full steam. By the way, one of the guys hitting almost as well as Alvarez over this two week period is Kyle Tucker. Tucker is No. 8 in BA and OBP and No 4 in SLG
and wRC+. Imagine what the impact if Alvarez and Tucker were still batting back to back in the lineup? Oh, well. In terms of just “this season,” that trade with the Cubs doesn’t look very good. Of course, the trade were more about the future rather than this year (for the Astros anyway).
Another interesting thing jumps out from these rankings. Jesus Sanchez has been very good these last two weeks. Sanchez is No. 7 in SLG (ranked right behind Alvarez) at .767 and No. 9 in both ISO (.424) and wRC+ (.226). Thinking back to the Alvarez-Tucker example, is it worth considering Alvarez and Sanchez hitting back to back?
Also note that Alvarez’s rankings on expected stats (x stats) are also impressive, meaning that his results haven’t been driven by luck. In fact, Yordan has been smoking the ball. Look at his EV90 (exit velocity average for 90% of batted balls) for Alvarez. He ranks No. 1 at a sizzling 113.3 mph.
2. Luis Garcia
Last week I discussed the Stuff+ results for the last starts made by Arrighetti and Javier. But at the time, we didn’t have the Stuff+ numbers from his first start back from the injured list. Granted this is a small sample, but it’s all we have to examine Garcia’s return.
Stuff+ (Stuff, Location+, Pitching+)
92, 105, 94
Garcia’s results were impressive (4.59 ERA 2.53 x-ERA), but his stuff rating is pretty much mediocre. In particular the pure stuff rating (movement, velocity) is 8% below average. However, his location was good, giving him well above average Location+. The overall Pitching+ is 94. Interestingly, Garcia and Jason Alexander have almost identical Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. They currently profile as sub-par stuff but good command pitchers. I suspect that Garcia’s low average velocity in this first start (91.3) is preventing achievement of a higher Stuff+ rating. We will need to watch the progression of his FB velocity in future starts.
Can Garcia continue with his good command/control? He walked no batters in his first start. I don’t know. But I’m a little wary, given the potential game-t0-game command inconsistency which is possible with returning TJ surgery pitchers.
The start-t0- start consistency for returning TJ pitchers is not a steady straight line, but can be a little bumpy. Javier’s recent start is an example. Toronto’s Shane Bieber was out for a lengthy time (similar to Garcia) after TJ surgery. He returned on Aug. 22 with an excellent outing (FG game score of 71). But second and third outings did match his initial first game back. The ERA for Bieber games 8/22 to 9-2: 1.50; 3.58; 7.50. His game score for the latter two games was 52 and 53.
3. In the near future
As the Astros travel to DFW for an important match with the Rangers. The Astros’ division odds are as good as every—despite losing two consecutive series. The current FG odds for the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers:
Odd: Division/Bye/ Playoffs
Astros 74% / 9% / 93%
Mariners 24% / 2% / 77%
Rangers 2% / 0% / 12%
The Astros are in a good position to win the division. The Mariners are the only real competition for the division, according to the FG model. The Rangers’ back is against the wall, heading into the weekend series with the Astros. The Rangers’ best chance is to snag the final wild card slot—and the odds aren’t great. The Rangers desperately need to sweep the Astros. As far as the Astros go, the chance of grabbing a bye is almost nil.
Thoughts?
