If the Green Bay Packers defeat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football this evening, the two teams’ performances on third downs should be a major factor. In fact, those numbers are likely a significant
reason why the Packers remain favored coming into this game, even coming off a devastating upset loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago and with the Eagles holding the NFC’s top spot.
It may seem counter-intuitive that the Eagles, with a well-respected running game and a mobile quarterback, are among the NFL’s worst teams on third downs, but it’s true — and it’s true on both sides of the football.
When the Eagles have the ball
Offensively, Philadelphia ranks 30th in third down conversion rate, which comes in at exactly 33.3% this season. Part of the reason for this that their run game has been struggling to find its footing this year. The once-vaunted Eagles ground game went through a five-game stretch this season when they failed to hit the 90-yard mark in any single game. Two of those contests saw them pick up just 45 yards each.
Even in the Eagles’ last game, a 38-20 win over the New York Giants two weeks ago when the running game surged to a 267-yard day, they were bad on third down, going just 2-for-8.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense is a top-ten unit on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 36% of their opportunities.
Predictably, distance is a driving factor for success rate for both units. The Packers are allowing teams to convert at around a two-thirds clip on third and short (1-3 yards to gain). That number drops to a touch over 40% on third and medium (4-6), then down to around 10 percent on third and long (7+). The Eagles’ offense has similar conversion rates in all three bands, as you can see below. However, a big problem for Philly is the frequency at which they face 3rd-and-long:
Notably, more than half of the Eagles’ third downs are of the 7+ variety, which helps explain why they are among the league leaders in three-and-outs on offense. The Packers’ numbers on defense are much more spread out across distance. But if the Packers can replicate early-down success against the Eagles, this bodes really well — Jalen Hurts is taking a lot of sacks on 3rd-and-long, and the Packers’ pass rush unit would love to pin its ears back and get after him.
When the Packers have the ball
Green Bay’s offense is not nearly as dependent on yardage when it comes to their third down conversion rate. In fact, they are bizarrely better on third down and 7-10 yards to go than they are on third and short!
The Eagles, meanwhile, are actually pretty decent on stopping third-and-short, comparatively speaking. They’re allowing just over a 50 percent clip, even better than the Packers’ mark. However, they are notably bad on 3rd-and-1 (allowing first downs on 14 of 18 attempts) then get oddly good on 3rd-and-2 (5-for-14) and 3rd-and-3 (1-for-6).
Where the Eagles are giving up more than average is on medium and long distances, especially with 7-10 yards to gain. And although the Packers would love to keep their third downs to a more traditionally manageable distance, these numbers indicate that all is not lost if they do face some longer distances this evening.
It’s rather bizarre that a team’s offensive conversion rate would be higher — and fairly significantly higher, at that — at longer distances. Perhaps here we see playcalling and Jordan Love’s creativity coming into play. Many of Green Bay’s frustrating third down failures have been runs or screens on short yardage, such as the 3rd-and-3 screen to Emanuel Wilson last week that got blown up for a loss of five yards. By contrast, Love’s accuracy and playmaking ability has been on display on third and long with regularity this season.
Meanwhile, the Eagles having a fairly inefficient pass rush (they are tied for the 5th-fewest sacks in the NFL), which explains why their defense’s 3rd-and-long numbers are less than impressive. It should further boost the Packers’ chances of converting in those long situations if Love has time to go through his reads and find open receivers.
Additionally, the Packers’ offensive EPA/play on third down is a whopping 0.31 according to RBSDM.com, leading the NFL by a massive margin over second-place San Francisco (0.22). Not only are they converting at an elite rate (the best in the NFL at 49% overall), but they’re also hitting on big plays when they do so.
What does this mean for Sunday? A single game is of course a small sample size and the Packers will need to execute on third downs to win this game. But the trends all season point to Green Bay having the advantage in this area, which should give them a great chance to sustain their own offensive drives and force the Eagles into 4th down decisions.
