Another week, another look at the scenarios for Miami to make the ACC Championship game.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the Miami Hurricanes are 8-2, 4-2 in the ACC and looking to close the year strong to get to 10-2.
Let’s not dawdle and get into things.
Elimination on the horizon
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but after the results of week 12, there is a combination of results in week 13 that will set the ACCCG and it won’t include Miami.
This is correct. If these results all hit in week 13, there is no permutation of results in week 14 that would change the standings to put anyone other than Georgia Tech and Virginia in the ACCCG. And yes, that includes a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech in week 14; the Hoos would still hold the tiebreaker over any other teams at 6-2.
So, to keep hope alive for another week for Miami’s infinitesimal chances to make the ACCCG, you have to hope for Duke and/or Pitt (especially this one) and/or SMU winning in week 13.
ACC Standings
The present ACC standings are as follows:
- Georgia Tech and Virginia at 6-1 in the league
- SMU and Pitt at 5-1 in the league
- Miami, SMU at 4-2 in the league
- Then the rest, who really don’t figure into this conversation from a current-standings standpoint
To get to the ACC Championship game, Miami is looking for a 6-2 conference record for the year, and tiebreakers over others with the same record not named Duke. They will need plenty of help from teams in front of them losing to get in a position to win tiebreakers at 6-2, but it’s possible.
The Three Options
After a full week of results, we’re down to 2 ways Miami can make the ACC Championship game. It has to have all of the results in a given scenario to make it happen, but that’s it.
Scenario 1
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Louisville beats SMU
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, SMU beats Cal, Wake Forest beats Duke
If this plays out, Virginia is atop the ACC Standings at 7-1, and Miami is 2nd at 6-2, and wins the 4-way tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU to get into the ACCCG.
Scenario 2
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, SMU beats Louisville
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, Cal beats SMU, Wake Forest beats Duke
Similar to the above scenario. Virginia is 7-1, and Miami wins the 6-2 tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU.
The longshot
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, SMU beats Louisville
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, Cal beats SMU, Wake Forest beats Duke, Virginia Tech beats Virginia
In this longest of longshot scenarios, there would be 5 teams with 6-2 conference records. And the order of finish among those teams by virtue of tiebreakers would be: 1. Miami, 2. Georgia Tech, 3. Virginia, 4. SMU, 5. Pitt
This needs way more upsets in week 14, with Cal over SMU AND, the craziest one of all, Virginia Tech over Virginia. However, if ALL those things listed above happen in this specific configuration over the last 2 weeks, Miami would be headed to Charlotte.
Team by Team needs
Miami (4-2 ACC)
There’s only one need here: Miami wins out. I know I already said it, but I’m saying it again because y’all love to forget I just said it when I get to the other parts of these scenario pieces. Miami has to win the rest of their remaining games. On the road at Virginia Tech, and on the road at Pitt.
If that doesn’t happen, nothing else beyond this matters.
Duke (4-2 ACC)
We need Duke to lose 1 game, either against Carolina or Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech (6-1 ACC)
We need Georgia Tech to lose to Pitt. Full stop. That HAS TO happen for Miami to have a chance at the ACCCG.
SMU (5-1 ACC)
SMU needs to lose 1 game, either against Louisville or Cal.
Pitt (5-1 ACC)
Pitt HAS TO beat Georgia Tech in week 13.
Virginia (6-1 ACC)
The “no way this happens” path is Virginia losing to Virginia Tech in Week 14, coupled with all the other results. This is a LONGGGGGGGGGGGG SHOT, but if it happens with everything else, Miami would be the top team at 6-2 with all the tiebreakers.
So there you have it. One way for Miami’s small chance at making the ACCCG ending in week 13, and 3 specific collections of results over the last 2 weeks for the Canes to back door their way into the ACCCG.
This is fun, right?
