The Cubs are in the postseason, but still have work to do to clinch home field for a wild-card series. The Reds still have a very small, though non-zero, chance of making the October tournament.
For more on the Reds, please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.
Fun facts
The Cubs won two of three games in their previous series at Cincinnati on May 23-25. It was only their fourth series win in their last 17 visits to Great American Ballpark. They lost eight series and split five. Their record in games of all series is 23-33.
The Cubs have not swept a series at Cincinnati since they won three in a row June 27-29, 2016. This will be their 23rd series there since then.
…..
The Cubs have played 18 previous four-game series at Cincinnati since 2000. They won just three of them, each by 3-1, in 2004, 2006 and 2018. They split nine and lost six, including by 4-0 in 2014 and 2018.
In all games of those series, their record is 31-41.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Thursday: Colin Rea, RHP (10-6, 4.23 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 4.44 FIP) vs. Hunter Greene, RHP (6-4, 3.01 ERA, 0.993 WHIP, 3.56 FIP)
Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (9-7, 3.29 ERA, 0.948 WHIP, 4.57 FIP) vs. Nick Lodolo, LHP (8-8, 3.30 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, 3.86 FIP)
Saturday: Javier Assad, RHP (3-1, 4.23 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 4.88 FIP) vs. Zack Littell, RHP (1-0, 4.74 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 4.66 FIP in eight starts with Reds, 9-8, 3.86 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 4.86 FIP overall)
Sunday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (10-6, 3.93 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 4.88 FIP) vs. Andrew Abbott, LHP (9-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 3.68 FIP)
So here we are, just four hours before this series begins, and the Cubs are still “TBD” on MLB.com for all the starting pitchers in this series.
Other sources list the starters as shown above, so I’m going with that. Remember it says “probable,” so this is definitely subject to change. That’s particularly true for the series opener, where I could see Craig Counsell using an opener before Colin Rea.
Also, the insertion of Javier Assad into the rotation this weekend would set Cade Horton up to start the first game of the Mets series Tuesday — and then perhaps the first game of the Wild Card series against the Padres the following Tuesday.
As always, we await developments.
Times & TV channels
Thursday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map)
Friday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network (and MLB Network outside the Cubs and Reds market territories)
Saturday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 12:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network (and MLB Network outside the Cubs and Reds market territories)
Prediction
Well. The Cubs have had trouble with left-handed starters this year, and the Reds have two of them going in this series. But the Cubs handled Abbott pretty well when they faced him at Wrigley last month, and Lodolo got hit pretty hard by the A’s in his last start, and might be running out of gas.
The Reds might still be marginally in contention for the third wild-card spot, but the Cubs have been playing some of their best baseball recently. I’m going to call for three of four this weekend.
Up next
The Cubs have Monday off, then return to Wrigley Field for the final homestand of the 2025 regular season. The six-game homestand starts with a three-game series against the New York Mets, beginning Tuesday evening.
