Game notes
- Time and date: Wednesday, November 12 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Yager Stadium — Oxford, OH
- Spread: Toledo (-3.5)
- Over/under: 45.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 29-24-1
- Last meeting: Toledo 30, Miami (OH) 20 — October 5, 2024
- Current streak: Toledo, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Two MAC contenders clash in a Wednesday night showdown. Toledo and Miami (OH) recently met in the 2023 MAC Championship Game, and both programs are annual fixtures in the conference title race. Miami qualified
for the championship game in 2019, 2023, and 2024, while Toledo punched a ticket in 2017, 2022, and 2023. Their head coaches, Chuck Martin and Jason Candle, are the only active MAC coaches with multiple MAC titles.
Both teams are firmly in a crowded MAC title race down the stretch of the season, and one team takes a significant leap with win in Oxford, OH on Midweek MACtion.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Toledo (5-4, 3-2 MAC) is one win away from a 16th-straight season of bowl eligibility, and the Rockets can continue the sixth-longest streak in the FBS on Wednesday night. But in order to do so, Toledo must accomplish something it hasn’t once in 2025 — win on the road.
Toledo is as dominant of a home team as you’ll find in the country, outscoring opponents 237-37 in the confines of the Glass Bowl, averaging 47.4 points and 520 yards per game en route to a 5-0 record. On the road, that team is unrecognizable. Toledo is 0-4 away from home with 14.8 points and 334 yards per game, squandering 13-0 and 21-0 leads in its two conference losses.
The Rockets need to figure out how to make every venue the Glass Bowl. It all starts with quarterback Tucker Gleason, who has taken zero sacks and completed 75 percent of passes or better in all five home starts this year. Gleason must replicate that comfortability across the state in Oxford, as he aims to build on his near-perfect 25-of-31, 309-yard performance against Northern Illinois from last week.
Gleason benefits from the presence of star wide receiver Junior Vandeross III, who leads the MAC with nine touchdown receptions and ranks second in the league in catches (58) and receiving yards (705). Vandeross makes his presence felt in every game, and Toledo’s offense elevates another level when Trayvon Rudolph excels as a co-star. The NIU transfer returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown last week and produced a 119-yard outing in mid-October, serving as the premier secondary option in the nation’s 33rd-ranked passing offense.
The run game returned starter Chip Trayanum last week, an explosive back whose last two 100+ yard games transpired in defeats. Trayanum averages 91 yards per outing and 5.6 per carry in an effective run game, and Kenji Christian provides good complementary support as the secondary back.
Toledo’s offense is hit-or-miss, but the defense is always hit. The Rockets are second in the FBS in fewest yards allowed per game at 233 and ninth in fewest points allowed at 14.6. It’s pick your poison against this bunch which fields top 10 ranks in both defending the run and pass.
The Rockets’ secondary is among the best in the country, featuring a star-studded lineup headlined by a potential All-American free safety in Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. Teams only generate 141 passing yards per game on a 50.9 completion rate against McNeil-Warren and the Rockets, and he’s not the only star on the back end. Cornerback Andre Fuller has eight pass breakups while strong safety Braden Awls is the MAC leader with four interceptions.
If teams prefer to avoid these DBs, then there’s a good chance they’ll meet K’Von Sherman, who ranks first on the team in tackles (64) and tackles for loss (9.0). This is one of the most complete units in the country, and nobody has eclipsed 28 points on the 2025 Rockets.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Miami (OH) (5-4, 4-1 MAC) watched its 5-game win streak dissipate last Tuesday night in Athens, OH to the reigning champion Bobcats. Still, the RedHawks control their own destiny for a third-straight MAC Championship Game appearance — which hasn’t been attained since Bowling Green and Northern Illinois met every season from 2013-15.
Miami defeated Toledo in the 2023 MAC Championship Game, but the Rockets’ quarterback in that matchup now suits up for the RedHawks. Seventh-year senior Dequan Finn faces his former team for the first time, and the former MAC MVP looks to light up some familiar defenders on Wednesday night. Toledo’s fifth-leading passer in program history has 1,451 passing yards and 395 rushing yards in his first season as a RedHawk, keeping a revamped offense that replaced all 11 starters afloat.
Finn’s accuracy numbers (58.6 completion rate) may not jump off the page, but Miami likes to take plenty of vertical shots with the veteran. Nobody highlights this tendency more than receiving yards leader Kam Perry, who ranks first in the FBS in yards per reception (among all receivers with more than two catches). Perry has 25 receptions yet still averages 26.3 yards per catch as the master of getting open from double moves. Also testing Toledo’s vaunted secondary is rising contributor Cole Weaver who is fresh off his first two 90-yard showings of his college career.
Miami’s physical run game features no shortage of size and weight. The o-line is massive and so are the running backs. Jordan Brunson is 6’0” and 233 while D’Shawntae Jones is 5’10” and 245, bringing a bruising presence to a ground attack which collects 160 yards per game.
But as usual with Miami, the RedHawks’ record is more of a result of defensive success. The RedHawks’ are 38th in total defense, and they’ve held five of their nine opponents to 17 points or fewer in a stellar season. The defense’s breakout star is outside linebacker Corban Hondru who is fresh off a 17-tackle performance against Ohio. Hondru leads the group with 78 tackles and three interceptions as the defense’s most versatile man when it comes to halting the air and ground.
Defensive end Adam Trick and safety Eli Blakey are other candidates for First Team All-MAC honors on the defense. Trick is disruptive as a pass rusher, using speed to fly by tackles en route to 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Then Blakey guides one of the conference’s best pass defenses, individually tallying 69 tackles and seven pass breakups. He lacks his partner-in-crime and team captain Silas Walters, a standout safety who hasn’t played due to injury since Oct. 18.
One other luxury the RedHawks enjoy is a strong kicking game. Dom Dzioban is 14-of-16 on the year, following in the footsteps of Sam Sloman and Graham Nicholson in Miami’s recent kicking dynasty.
Prediction
These two consistent winners produced a 23-14 MAC Championship Score two years ago, and defense remains the identity of both squads. Toledo’s offensive output greatly wavers depending on geography, but the defense always travels on the road. Miami’s offense is susceptible to struggles, as noted in the first half at Ohio or in the 20-7 win over Akron.
Points will be at a premium in this one, and it won’t exactly be the cleanest game with several turnovers likely sprinkled in. Toledo presents more firepower with Junior Vandeross III as the best offensive player on the field Wednesday night. The Rockets produce one extra scoring drive in the fourth quarter, emerging in a close game against a fellow MAC contender.
Prediction: Toledo 20, Miami (OH) 17
