Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund are on pace for a phenomenal season, and it’s all thanks to the club’s stellar defensive record. BVB have only conceded 20 goals in 21 Bundesliga games. Without this, the squad’s comparatively paltry offensive numbers would be nowhere near good enough to have them anywhere close to a title challenge.
This effort has come in spite of a very shallow pool of defenders, many of whom have popped in and out of the squad repeatedly with injuries. Throughout the season the main
stalwart has been Nico Schlotterbeck. Unfortunately, against Mainz, Kovac will need to make magic without his star defender. Schlotterbeck’s ill-advised yellow card last weekend against Wolfsburg earned him a one-game suspension, putting an already thin squad on even thinner ice.
Mainz might be in 14th place, but their league position definitely obfuscates their true threat level to Borussia Dortmund. Since Urs Fischer took over for Bo Henriksen in December, Mainz have only been defeated once. They’ve won four of their last five, including a 2-1 win over RB Leipzig, and back in December even stole a point off of Bayern Munich.
Player to Watch: Lee Jae-Sung
Nadiem Amiri leads Mainz in goals by a massive margin, but 7 of his 9 came from the penalty spot. Lee Jae-Sung is probably the slightly more dangerous threat from open play. This season he’s dipped in form a bit, but last season he put up a respectable 7 goals and 6 assists across 31 appearances. He is an attacking midfielder who’s very technical and strong all the ball, and will be looking to be playmaker for his teammate Amiri.
Predicted Lineup
With Schlotterbeck suspended and Emre Can out with an adductor injury, Filippo Mané injured against Wolfsburg, and Aaron Anselmino shipped back to Chelsea, the options other than the U-23s are Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, and Ramy Bensebaini. To make things worse, BVB are shallow at full-back, with Yan Couto questionable due to an illness.
In a bit of better news, Karim Adeyemi is ready to return to the squad after missing the Wolfsburg match with an ankle injury. I suspect he may start on the bench, with Maximilian Beier and Julian Brandt getting the start on the wings. Marcel Sabitzer is still injured, so BVB have limited options in midfield other than Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha yet again.
Score Prediction
Mainz are in solid form and BVB’s defensive situation is less than ideal, so this will probably be a tough match. However, due to the title race, I will project some positivity and predict a very narrow 2-1 win.
