Week 10 of the 2026 season is here, and this week has a loaded slate to discuss. For the first time this season, the Mountain West has joined the Pac-12 in having a team in the AP Top 25, though not in the absolute joke of a CFP poll that matters all the more for these programs. Despite the committee being a buzzkill on the mood in the conference, we still have a great slate of games to discuss this week. Let’s get right into the MW slate in Week 10.
#22/RV New Mexico Lobos (7-1) at Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5)
Date and Time: Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, 6:00 p.m.
PST, 7:00 p.m. MST
Network: CBSSN
Spread: UNM -10
Preview: For the first time in program history, the New Mexico Lobos are ranked in the AP Top 25. Unfortunately, the CFP committee had to spoil the party with their pro-SEC slop ranking, but this accomplishment is still commendable on part of the Lobos. Their first game as a ranked team will be a game against the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, a place where they first played in 1942, and still have yet to win. This is a classic trap game opportunity for the Lobos, though I sincerely doubt the Wolf Pack’s ability to pull a game like this off.
New Mexico has the leg up on Nevada in a lot of categories. UNM has the best defense in the country in terms of PPG allowed and a top-five unit in rushing yards allowed per game. Nevada has the second-best pass defense in the conference, but a mediocre run defense and the worst turnover differential in the country. These teams are both familiar with close games, New Mexico holding a 2-1 record in such games (loss was at #24 Oklahoma), whereas the Wolf Pack are 0-2. Each of the Lobos’ last two games have ended with 21-16 wins where their defense has stifled the opposing offense enough to emerge victorious.
Both teams have been hampered this season by truly atrocious quarterback play. The two teams have combined to throw 17 touchdowns and 19 interceptions on the year, averaging a completion percentage of just under 56 percent. Toa Fa’avae has been allowed to consistently run the Lobo offense despite terrible play, which has been the main reason for most of the Lobos’ close victories recently. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack QB room is somehow even worse. Luke Duncan is their only healthy non-freshman quarterback, but is coming off of a game against UCLA where he completed one pass to his team and three to the Bruins. Carter Jones and AJ Bianco are both dealing with injuries, but the Wolf Pack will desperately need one of those guys to have a chance in this game.
This should be a low-scoring game. Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley getting space to operate will be critical since their QB absolutely cannot be relied on to carry them to a win. Meanwhile, Nevada will struggle to score if Luke Duncan is their QB, and even if Jones/Bianco come back for this game, that will probably only be worth one more score. This game will look close on paper, but Nevada does not have it in them to actually keep things competitive.
Prediction: #22 New Mexico 20, Nevada 7
NIU Huskies (0-8) at San Jose State Spartans (4-5)
Date and Time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 1:00 p.m. PST, 3:00 p.m. CST
Network: MW+
Spread: SJSU -10
Preview: This game looks like an easy Spartan win on paper, but I really don’t think it is all that simple. Throughout the first seven games of their thus-far winless season, Northern Illinois looked every bit like the worst team in the country, having failed to keep any of their six FBS games within 21 points and giving up 56 at home to an awful Hawaii team. That all changed in their game against UNLV last week, one where the Huskies showed up in Vegas ready to play and were robbed of a monumental upset victory by two atrocious officiating calls in a 31-24 loss. The Huskies were so close to victory in their previous game, surely setting them up to be hungrier than ever when they travel up the coast to San Jose this week.
Huskies QB Taron Dickens had a fantastic game against the Rebels, accounting for over 300 yards of offense while turning over the ball just once. The Huskies also seemed to find something on the ground with sophomore back Elijah Porter rumbling for 113 and a TD. WRs George Dimopoulos and DeAree Rogers combined for 223 yards and both of Dickens’ TDs, which is a great sign considering the Spartans have the worst pass defense in the conference (223.1 YPG). All of these factors work against the Spartans, whose own offense has looked out of sorts and overall pretty sluggish in recent weeks. Thankfully for SJSU, the Huskies have an equally terrible pass defense (215 YPG), combining that with their even worse run defense (218.8 YPG) that got ravaged for 204 yards last week.
This game will all depend on whether or not the same version of the Huskies that played last week shows up once again. If they do, they will find themselves with their first win of the year. I so badly want to predict that the Huskies will manage to pull it off, but I do think they will suffer some regression against a Spartans squad equally desperate for a win to get to a bowl game. Rest assured, however, that if the Spartans do end up losing this game, there will be some immediate coaching changes in San Jose.
Prediction: San Jose State 31, Northern Illinois 21
Air Force Falcons (6-2) at Army Black Knights (5-3)
Date and Time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 5:30 p.m. MST
Network: CBS
Spread: ARMY -3
Preview: American football doesn’t get much better than watching two of the service academies go at it in pure trench warfare. Air Force and Army play this week in West Point, a game which serves as the Falcons’ final Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy game of the 2026 season. If the Falcons get the win here, they will clinch the series victory for the first time since 2022.
This game has been played annually since 1971, with Air Force holding a commanding lead of 38-21-1 in the all-time series. That stat belies the fact that Army has dominated this game as of late—7-2 against the Falcons in the last nine meetings. Appropriately, these two teams are led by the top two rushing attacks in the country—the Black Knights are the slightly better of the two. Both teams have middle-of-the-road run defenses, with the Falcons having the slight edge in the latter category.
These games are always low-scoring, hard-fought bar fights where every yard gained and lost could end up being the deciding factor. The Falcons will surely be motivated here since, in addition to not having won the trophy in four years, Air Force has not won in West Point since 2016. I think the Falcons’ slight edge in the run-stopping department will end up being the difference, taking their beloved trophy back to Colorado Springs for a shot in the arm heading into the home stretch.
Prediction: Air Force 23, Army 20
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-6) at UTEP Miners (1-7)
Date and Time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m. HST, 7:30 p.m. MST
Network: FS1
Spread: HAW -8.5
Preview: I truly do not understand how or why this game is on FS1. If you were to interview 100 college football fans, I think you would have a hard time people who would watch this matchup if you paid them to do so. The Miners and Warriors are both spiraling this season, finding next to no consistency on offense while pairing that with truly terribly defenses that can’t stop a light breeze. UTEP did jump out to a lead over conference contender NDSU last week, but like Hawaii in their similar home game against the Lobos, were not able to hold on while getting stifled offensively at every turn. This is simply another Mountain West tank bowl which will either be a Game of the Year contender or an unwatchable disaster, no in-between.
Hawaii’s defense, despite ranking just ahead of the Miners in points per game allowed, but actually allow 12 points per game less than UTEP does. This is the most major difference between these two teams, especially when considering the fact that UTEP has allowed less than 30 points in just one FBS game this season. Considering what Hawaii did to NIU two weeks ago, I have a feeling the ‘Bows are going to light up the nighttime sky at the Sun Bowl and turn this game into a rout very quickly.
Prediction: Hawaii 40, UTEP 13
Wyoming Cowboys (5-3) at UNLV Rebels (5-3)
Date and Time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 7:30 p.m. PST, 8:30 p.m. MST
Network: CBSSN
Spread: UNLV -5.5
Preview: In a match that once looked like an easy home win for UNLV, this game has somehow turned into a battle to control your destiny in the race for the Mountain West championship game. UNLV was definitely predicted to be here before the season, though it has been far from a smooth ride. Meanwhile, Wyoming was in a miserable state after a 1-2 start where many fans were calling for the firing of head coach Jay Sawvel, but has risen like a phoenix from the ashes with three straight wins that have put them well within the race for a Mountain West championship.
Wyoming’s offense has been highly inconsistent this season, currently ranking eighth in PPG (19.5). Tyler Hughes has not been fantastic through the air, but his greatest strength has been as a true dual-threat, averaging a little over 140 yards per game on the ground over Wyoming’s three-game win streak. UNLV’s defensive philosophy should entirely revolve around shutting Hughes down, which will be tough considering the Rebels have the conference’s second-worst run defense. Wyoming’s defense is comparable to UNLV’s in terms of rushing yards, but actually ranks third in the conference in points per game (20.0). These two teams are strikingly similar, which should produce a good game.
After needing referee support to beat NIU at home last week, my faith in UNLV’s ability to be a contender in this conference has been rocked. Perhaps the Rebels were looking forward to this matchup so they can stop Tyler Hughes, but I honestly think it’s more likely that the Rebels are an overrated team just waiting for someone to truly embarrass them and wake them up. I think this is the week it happens, and Wyoming will be able to stave off a UNLV second-half comeback attempt to secure a return to a bowl game and gain control over their own destiny in the MW title race.
Prediction: Wyoming 35, UNLV 31
