With the NHL Draft Lottery coming and going with some boons to the Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks, attention among Devils fans turned to what the team should do with their first-round pick. Thankfully, the Devils did not drop in position as a result of the Lottery since both the Leafs and Sharks finished with fewer standings points than them. However, sitting at 12th overall and not expected to get an obvious first-year stud rookie, many fans and web-sphere Devils writers have argued that
the team should trade the pick for forward help.
In theory, that sounds great, right? Why not look for some top-line forward talent to acquire for a draft pick that might not impact the team for a few seasons?
The biggest issue for any NHL General Manager looking to swing a blockbuster trade on Draft Day is that teams around the league are largely managed with conservative approaches. While rebuilds can still happen naturally after star players age or sign elsewhere, teams almost invariably stick their rosters out to the bitter end. Teardowns are a rarity. Admitting roster flaws and committing to retools are only slightly less so. As a result, true difference-makers are rarely on the table.
I do not believe that the Devils should plan on moving this 12th overall pick. Not only do I not believe that players like Brady Tkachuk or Robert Thomas will be available, but I am totally disinterested in the lesser trade ideas out there. Whether it’s Matthew Knies or Vincent Trocheck possibly on the move, I do not believe either move the needle enough to justify weakening the Devils’ player development program any further. If the Devils are not getting a true top-line or top-pairing skater, the Devils need to make this operation more sustainable in the long-term through the 2026 NHL Draft.
The Future of Homegrown Devils Scorers is Already Bleak
The New Jersey Devils have a barren prospect pool. Byron Bader of Hockey Prospecting recently published his 32-team pool rankings, with the Devils dropping from 18th in July 2025 to 31st in May 2026. Hockey Prospecting’s NHLe system uses prospect production in various leagues and projects a percentage chance that those players turn into full-time NHLers (over 200 games played) or star producers (58 points per 82 games for forwards and 37 points per 82 for defensemen). Out of the entire Devils system, only Lenni Hameenaho and Seamus Casey have a “NHLer Probability” over 50%. Only Casey has a “Star Probability” over 10%.
You may notice below that I had to cross out a prospect. That would be Herman Traff, who would have been the team’s fourth-best skater prospect under Bader’s prediction model if he were not traded by Tom Fitzgerald for a trade deadline rental.
You might also notice that the Devils have only one first-round prospect who is not yet in the NHL. Anton Silayev cratered under Bader’s model due to his 2025-26 season, in which Silayev only had three points in 61 games. True, his squad had hired a new coach who sharply reduced his minutes, and Silayev is someone whose impact might not be measured in points, but it’s not looking great. As a top-10 pick, you would at least want Silayev to have enough offensive skill to hold down a second-pairing role, so Mehta’s front office might have their work cut out for them in terms of turning his development around.
There is another solution to the Devils’ utter lack of first round-level prospects aside from stocking all of our hope into Silayev: the Devils can actually make their first-round pick. This is not a case of “loser mentality,” with the Devils not being willing to take the next step when they have the assets to do so. Keeping the pick would rather be admitting that the organization, from top-to-bottom, is not yet good enough to be a reliable Stanley Cup contender. The Timo Meier trade, in which Tom Fitzgerald gave up a 2023 first-rounder, was fine. The Devils had a chance to capitalize on a franchise record-setting regular season. The Jacob Markstrom trade, in which the Devils gave up a 2025 first-rounder, was also sensible at the time given the team’s goaltending issues in 2024, but has turned disastrous over time.
Turning around from those two moves and saying, we’re just one draft-day trade away from contention seems foolish to me. And it’s not like Fitzgerald was unwilling to move those first-rounders for win-now pieces. It just so happens that between those trades and the Dumoulin trade (a second-rounder and Traff), the Devils have very few prospects worth looking forward to. That might be fine for a team in a position like the Colorado Avalanche, but the Devils are not that good yet. They can’t just trade a first-rounder for whichever forwards might be available. If they make that move, it needs to be a huge one.
It’s Been A Long Time Since the Devils Drafted an Impact Forward
If you think the Devils need to move this pick, ask yourself, do you want to go seven years the Devils without picking an NHL-bound forward in the first round? Dawson Mercer, picked 18th in 2020, was the last. In all of Tom Fitzgerald’s tenure as a General Manager of the New Jersey Devils, he has only drafted one true NHL forward. Alex Holtz looks like a bust. Chase Stillman is a bust. We can be hopeful about Lenni Hameenaho, but he’s not a certain factor yet. So, if you were looking for the last seven successful forward picks by the Devils, this would be that list:
- Dawson Mercer (18th, 2020) — Fitzgerald
- Arseny Gritsyuk (129th, 2019) — Shero
- Jack Hughes (1st, 2019) — Shero
- Yegor Sharangovich (141st, 2018) — Shero
- Fabian Zetterlund (63rd, 2017) — Shero
- Jesper Boqvist (36th, 2017) — Shero
- Nico Hischier (1st, 2017) — Shero
It is pretty much unforgivable for a General Manager to have such a poor track record in the Draft for a team that only made the playoffs in two seasons under his tenure. Rather than continuing Fitzgerald’s poor roster building strategies of chasing the shortcut to victory, the Devils need to look for a better, different process. With Sunny Mehta at the helm — a guy who I perceive as a likely good drafter — the Devils should definitely make this pick, keeping in mind that this might be the highest they make a selection over the next five or ten years.
Keeping this pick doesn’t mean that they won’t be able to package picks and prospects in the future for established high-level talent. But the Devils cannot chase the shiny object just yet: they need to build a team that will still be good in several years, and they cannot bet that just keeping a core of Hischier, Hughes, and Bratt with whatever smattering of free agents and veteran trade acquisitions is going to do it year in and year out. Sunny Mehta needs to find someone who will complement them for years and years, and he might not get a better chance to find one in the NHL Draft than right here and now. It’s not like true contending teams have been unable to move late firsts for high-impact players at trade deadlines.
And, hey, you never know. Benjamin Kindel and Porter Martone looked pretty good this season for the Pennsylvanian teams, and neither were top-five picks in 2025.
Your Thoughts
What do you think about trading the 12th overall pick? Who would you be willing to trade it for? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
