The Wisconsin Badgers have long defied the odds under head coach Greg Gard, exceeding expectations nearly every year over the past few seasons as they’ve found a way to be near the top of the Big Ten on a regular basis.
Over the past three years, the Badgers have finished fifth, third, and fifth in the Big Ten, while earning a top-five seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also had two first-place finishes in the conference and three other top-four finishes under Gard.
However, they haven’t seen that
level of respect when it comes to the Big Ten preseason media poll. Last year, Wisconsin came in at No. 7. Prior to the season, I had boldly predicted them to finish third in the Big Ten, which ultimately was a little too optimistic, as the defense never came together. Still, they exceeded expectations as the No. 5 team in the Big Ten, making the tournament semifinals before bowing out to No. 1 Michigan.
In 2024-25, Wisconsin was tied for 12th in the Big Ten media poll. That obviously turned out to be a huge mistake, as the Badgers came third in the conference that year, making it to the tournament championship game behind stars John Tonje and John Blackwell.
Now, this season, with some roster turnover happening again, where is Wisconsin projected to finish in the Big Ten?
ESPN’s Myron Medcalf took an early look at the Big Ten, compiling every team’s ceiling and floor in the conference. Ranking teams by projected ceiling wins, Wisconsin came in at ninth with a total of 26 wins at its ceiling.
“Greg Gard has been one of the most consistent coaches in the country,” Medcalf wrote. “He has won at least 20 games in seven of the past eight seasons. He also has exceeded expectations in a handful of those campaigns, including a season ago when John Blackwell became a breakout star and the Badgers earned a 5-seed.
“Gard will have to reset again with both Blackwell and top scorer Nick Boyd gone, though his team could thrive with 7-footer Nolan Winter (13.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG), and if Australian point guard Owen Foxwell can make the transition from international standout to Big Ten star at a crucial position.”
Now, 26 wins would be quite a strong year. Wisconsin has hit that twice under Greg Gard: in 2024-25, when they went 27-10 and earned the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten, and in 2016-17, when they went 27-10 as well and were tied for second in the Big Ten.
But Wisconsin’s ceiling ranked below those of Purdue (No. 8), Ohio State (No. 7), USC (No. 6), Nebraska (No. 5), UCLA (No. 4), Illinois (No. 3), Michigan (No. 2), and Michigan State (No. 1).
Medcalf sees Wisconsin’s ceiling as finishing fourth in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the top six teams in the rankings all have a ceiling of being first in the Big Ten, while Ohio State and Purdue’s ceilings are third in the conference.
But they do have a high floor. Medcalf sees the Badgers at 20 wins at the lowest, which Wisconsin has hit in every year since 2020-21, and a Big Ten finish of eighth place as the floor.
As for their postseason luck? The ceiling has a trip to the Sweet Sixteen, which has eluded the Badgers since Greg Gard’s first two years as head coach, whereas the floor is an NCAA Tournament berth, but a first-round exit, which we saw this season.
