The ball. The ball. The ball. This was a phrase Jason Garrett repeatedly used to emphasize the importance of protecting the football and forcing turnovers on defense. It was a mantra deemed so significant that it was painted in large letters on the wall of the team’s main meeting room at their training facility. And for good reason. Turnovers are the ultimate currency in the NFL. They can break the spirit of the offense, rescue the defense, and be the single most influential factor in turning a good team into
a playoff team.
This rings loud for the Dallas Cowboys. Over the last 20 seasons, winning the turnover differential has shown a strong correlation to successful seasons. Sorting from most wins to fewest, here is how they have rated over the last two decades.
The data provides overwhelming evidence that if they want to make the playoffs, they need to come out on top of the turnover battle. Summarizing this data provides the following key points:
- Every double-digit win season, they’ve had a positive TO differential (8 times)
- Every negative TO differential season has resulted in fewer than 10 wins (11 times)
That seems rather compelling. “Every” is a strong word. If the team wants 12+ wins, then it would behoove them to finish with a +5 in turnover differential, as five of the six 12+ win seasons they have finished with that mark. The lone exception was the 2007 season, where they finished with a turnover differential of +3, but it would have been higher had Tony Romo not turned the ball over six times in the wild Monday night game against Buffalo.
You might also notice that the Cowboys are coming off back-to-back seasons with poor results in turnover differential. They have finished in the bottom 10 both seasons, which has resulted in back-to-back seven-win seasons. And you can’t really just blame one side of the ball, as both sides are contributing to this.
To right this wrong, the Cowboys are hoping the defense provides enough adjustments to shake up this differential disparity. The addition of new defensive coordinator Christian Parker is expected to bring confusion and spacing manipulation to the mix rather than just relying solely on raw athleticism to win individual matchups. With pre-snap illusions and quick post-snap rotations, the Cowboys hope to create hesitation for the quarterback, causing late throws and costly decisions.
Parker’s defense plays mind games as one of its tools. He’ll look to disguise his pressure and rely heavily on versatile defenders who can do different things on any given snap. Challenging the opposing offense to make fast decisions on which players are coming after the quarterback and which are dropping back will go a long way in determining how quickly the defense can get off the field. Deception can force hurried throws and create strip sacks that can flip the game script in a hurry.
Improving the location of the defenders will be instrumental in determining whether they are in the right position to make plays. Parker wants his guys operating with forward-facing eyes. Keeping their eyes locked on the quarterback and getting quicker breaks on the ball can be the difference between giving up a big play and causing a turnover. Turning last year’s reaction defense into one of anticipation should offer up more interception opportunities.
For them to even get to those passing situations, they need to be good on early downs. Parker will employ a more conservative gap-and-a-half run defense designed to keep the running game in check. Rather than aggressively attacking lanes and hoping they guess right, they’ll read blocks and just try to hold their ground. Successful stops will lead to more 3rd-and-longs, and more 3rd-and-longs will lead to more mistakes.
There is a tradeoff, though. Parker’s defense is designed to limit big plays, but it does open the door for dink-and-dunk opportunities where risk-averse quarterbacks may opt to lay short and look for checkdowns. In those situations, the defense won’t get as many chances to take the ball away. If the defense is too cautious and keeps everything in front of them, they could be subjected to a steady diet of boring short-yard gains that may grind out large-play scoring drives.
But there’s also an added benefit as well. If the defense stops giving up explosive plays and easy scores, this takes a little pressure off their own offense. Those instances where the defense spiraled out of control took the Cowboys completely out of games last year and forced their own offense to take unnecessary risks. With a defense that can actually make stops, the offense can operate with patience and pose, creating a more stable path to victory rather than all the crazy back-and-forth madness we were subjected to last year.
Looking ahead to the upcoming season, a realistic projection for the Cowboys’ turnover differential would be +5. This value comes from the balancing force of stabilizing a broken secondary, taking them from a bottom-tier unit to a top-15 squad. Don’t expect them to create Quinn-esque level takeaways, but small improvements combined with drastically reducing explosive plays will be huge. Combining that with no longer requiring the offense to take high-risk gambles downfield will help them improve on both sides of the ball. If the Cowboys can hit that mark, then historical data shows they could reach a 12-win season with a return appearance to the postseason.
