Welcome back to BCB After Dark: the hippest hangout for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. It’s good to see you to start the week out right. Come on in and join us. The dress code
is casual. We can check a coat for you if you need to. There are still a couple of tables available. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
The World Series is all set and the Toronto Blue Jays are going to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1993 after a 4-3 win over the Mariners. A dramatic George Springer three-run home run in the bottom of the seventh is what Blue Jays fans will tell their grandchildren about. They’ll be taking on the National League Dodgers, and I think I can speak for most of us when I say we are all Canadians now. But if you want to cheer for the Dodgers, that’s cool too. After all, I was the World’s Biggest Dodgers Fan just last week.
My condolences to Mariners fans. I know what it’s like to be a few outs away from a World Series appearance and to have it stripped away in an instant.
Last week, I asked you if you thought it wise to re-sign Kyle Tucker for an eight-year, $340 million deal—or something around those parts. I split it into four tiers with two saying “yes” and two saying “no,” depending on how much you quibbled with my figures. In the end, a majority of 67 percent were willing to say “Sayonara” to Tucker. That breaks down to 38 percent saying you’d sign him for significantly less than that and 28 percent of you saying that you just don’t want him back at any reasonable price.
Here’s the part where we listen to music and talk movies. It’s up to you whether or not you want to join us for that.
Tonight we’re starting nothing by Halloween jazz from now until the end of the month. So tonight we have Nina Simone performing the Screamin’ Jay Hawkins tune “I Put A Spell On You” in France in 1965.
I’m still not ready to start the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic. I’ve been doing nothing but watching science fiction films in my small amount of spare time and I still have a few to go before I finalize the brackets. I’m about one-third of the way through Stalker. I’m still churning through stuff trying to decide what will be the eighth film in the “Classic” bracket.
Since I can’t exactly write about any of the films I’ve been watching before the tournament starts, I thought I’d throw the floor open to you. Tonight’s topic is “What are some of your favorite Chicago films?”
By “Chicago films,” I mean movies set in Chicago. They don’t have to be filmed here, but it would help.
The obvious ones are The Blues Brothers and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Getting into the documentary category. many have written that Hoop Dreams is the greatest Chicago movie ever made.
The first part of Some Like It Hot is set in Chicago. Does it qualify as a Chicago movie even though most of it was set in Florida (and shot in California)? Not for me, but I’m willing to listen. Director Michael Mann’s Thief is an obvious Chicago film. Sticking with the eighties, The Untouchables leans into the Chicago of the days of Al Capone. So do two classic pre-Code gangster films: The Public Enemy and Scarface (1932).
I’ve seen Eight Men Out listed among the great Chicago films. It’s also among some of the great baseball films. It’s not a very good piece of history (nor is the book on which it is based which is filled with inaccuracies), but it’s a great baseball drama.
Two more that I can vouch for as good movies set in Chicago are Judas and the Black Messiah and High Fidelity. Although it was weird after reading the very English Nick Hornby novel High Fidelity to see it set in Chicago, I have to admit that it worked very well in Chicago.
So what are your favorite films about the city that hosts your favorite baseball team?
Welcome back to everyone who skips the music and movies
Just for tonight, I’m going to assume that Kyle Tucker leaves as a free agent. Maybe that’s a safe assumption—I just don’t know. I do know that it would be foolish to assume Tucker is coming back and not make other plans.
If Tucker is gone, that leaves a huge hole in the Cubs lineup and a need for a left-handed power bat. There’s someone else on the free agent market that may be the best left-handed power hitter in the game and he’s someone that Cubs fans are quite familiar with: Kyle Schwarber.
Even the biggest defenders of the Cubs front office have to admit that the Cubs messed up when they non-tendered Schwarber after the 2020 season. I’m pretty sure team president Jed Hoyer has admitted it was a mistake. Yes, there were reasons that made some sense at the time as to why they did it and they were under orders from ownership to cut payroll after the “biblical losses” of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. But clearly the Cubs should have found somewhere else to cut payroll if they had to.
Today, Schwarber at 32 and is coming off what is probably the best season of his career in 2025, hitting 56 home runs and 132 RBI. Both numbers led the National League. Schwarber’s biggest weakness is traditionally his batting average, but last year he hit .240, which is just a tad below the league average of .247. But Schwarber draws a ton of walks, so his .365 on-base percentage was way above the league average of .317.
There isn’t a team in MLB who couldn’t use that kind of performance at the plate. But you’re also aware of the downsides of Schwarber. He’s so poor defensively that he really can’t be played in the outfield except in an emergency situation. He’s played 13 games in left field in the past two seasons combined and 298 as the DH. So by signing Schwarber, the Cubs would essentially be walling off the DH position for the next four or five years for anyone else. This is a problem for any team, but it could especially be one for the Cubs as one of their top prospects, Moisés Ballesteros, looks like a full-time DH and a part-time catcher. Ballesteros is also a left-handed hitter of enormous promise. He’s not the same kind of hitter Schwarber is—his power is more above-average than elite and he won’t draw anywhere near as many walks, but he also has a good chance to hit .300 in the majors as his bat-to-ball skills are outstanding.
Ballesteros, like almost all prospects, is no sure thing, but he certainly looks like he could be something special. But even if he weren’t, tying up the DH position with someone like Schwarber would prevent Seiya Suzuki from moving there if other prospects Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcántara look ready to take over right field. And in any case, manager Craig Counsell likes to use the DH position to give players a half-day off from time to time.
The other issue is that Kyle Schwarber turns 33 before Opening Day. As good a hitter as he is, Father Time is undefeated. As Schwarber ages, will he be able to keep his bat speed up to still be able to hit a 99-mile per hour fastball? There are some studies that say that players with “old player skills,” as Bill James put it, age more poorly than players with skills like speed and contact that we associate more with younger players. Those studies are 15 years old now so I’m not sure they still apply. But in any case, Schwarber is going to want at least a four-year deal and that takes him through his age-36 season. Prince Fielder had a great season at age 31 and was out of baseball by age 33. Kris Bryant has been a disaster since turning 30. Adam Duvall’s last good season was at age 32. Mark Trumbo hit 47 home runs at age 30. He hit 40 over the next two seasons combined and was out of baseball after a poor, injury-filled age-33 season Yes, many of those declines were because of injuries, but guess what? Older players have a harder time staying healthy than younger players.
Of course, I’m sure you can find some exceptions to this decline of players with “old player skills.” Nelson Cruz is one example as he was still a productive hitter until he turned 40. But if you go to baseball-reference and look at the “Similarity Scores” for Schwarber, it’s not very encouraging: Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, Mark Reynolds, Roger Maris, Trumbo, Chris Davis and Khris Davis. There are a few more positive comps—Mark McGwire, Greg Vaughn—but there are more examples of players who flamed out in and around age 33-34 than had good careers into their late-30s.
For these reasons, I think it’s highly unlikely that the Cubs pursue Kyle Schwarber as a free agent this winter. But just because the Cubs won’t doesn’t mean they shouldn’t. And I’ve read plenty of commenters on this site saying that they would like to see Schwarber back in Cubs pinstripes. Maybe you agree with them.
Schwarber is finishing up a four-year, $79 million contract with the Phillies and is in line for a raise. He reportedly wants a five-year, $150 million deal this time. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he doesn’t get that. But a four-year, $110 million deal? Very possible. Possibly even $125 million.
So if you were running the Cubs and Kyle Tucker was leaving as a free agent, would you pursue Kyle Schwarber?
Thanks for stopping by tonight. We’re all looking forward to the World Series, even if the Cubs aren’t playing. Maybe more—it’s a lot less stressful when they don’t. Please get home safely. Clean up around your table. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow night for more BCB After Dark.
