It’s hard to look ahead with anything but a tinge of dread. That kind of loss knocks a team for a loop, and their fanbase takes that particularly stomach-churning roller coaster ride with them. The Falcons
aren’t getting an easy team to try to rebound against—Carolina was supposed to be their straightforward game before a gauntlet of contenders—even if injuries are hitting Dan Quinn’s team hard.
Here’s what you’ll need to know as we cross our fingers and hope the Falcons can turn up the intensity several thousand notches and emerge victorious against the Washington Commanders.
Team rankings
The Falcons have their best defense in years through three games, but the Commanders will provide a stiff challenge even with Terry McLaurin likely to miss this one and Jayden Daniels quite possibly absent, as well. That’s because they have a tough-to-contain scrambling quarterback in Marcus Mariota and a three-headed backfield with multiple home run threats, plus the always dangerous Deebo Samuel. Washington has been careful with the football and quite good at running, and that will be enough to test this defense.
The Commanders defense has a quality pass rush and a solid run defense, but they’ve struggled to get turnovers thus far and don’t have a terrific secondary, especially now that they’re down another starter in Will Harris. A heavy dose of Bijan is warranted in this one, but it’s not the worst week for the passing game to get back on track, if such a thing is possible.
How the Commanders have changed
Justifiably fancying themselves contenders after the 2024 season, the Commanders didn’t so much set out to transform the roster as supplement it.
On defense, they added former Saint Will Harris—they love those Saints defensive backs—and Javon Kinlaw to boost a talented interior and secondary. Unfortunately for them, they’re adding Darnell Savage after Harris hit injured reserve following Week 3.
They added ex-Falcon Eddie Goldman and ex-Bear Jacob Martin for depth up front, signed legendary pass rusher Von Miller in late July, and made some small signings for the offense. The bulk of their additions were re-signings and draft picks, however.
That includes Jacory “Bill” Croksy-Merritt, the team’s nominal starting running back, and rookie starting right tackle Josh Conerly, the latter of whom is struggling mightily early on. That also includes rookie cornerback Trey Amos, who has looked pretty good in coverage for long stretches, but has been a non-factor against the run.
The Commanders largely bet on running it back with a few key additions; the results have been inconsistent thus far but they are a cool 2-1.
What to know about Week 4
So much hinges on whether the Falcons have to face Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota. Both quarterbacks pose a danger to this Falcons defense given that both are excellent runners, but Daniels is also a deadly, precision passer who can take advantage of the Falcons without A.J. Terrell. Without him, the matchup is certainly simpler.
Let’s start with the positives. This Washington defense held the Giants in check and held the Raiders down until the fourth quarter, when they were way ahead, but they’re not great. Their quality ranking in points allowed obscures the fact that they’re a pretty average defense overall, one that a good Packers team (and, eventually, a capable Raiders passing attack) exploited to the tune of five passing touchdowns over the past two weeks. Washington has just one forced fumble and zero interceptions to this point; they’re less of a big play defense than a late Atlanta-era Dan Quinn bend, don’t break defense. It’s largely working for them so far, but their secondary has not looked good, so I don’t know how long that will keep up.
Mariota as a pure passer has his well-known flaws; we saw them all in 2022. Flustered, he throws it willy-nilly and can misfire badly, and the deep balls come and go. When he’s settled and taking what a defense gives him, Mariota can still pull together really good stretches, but they rarely last. The Falcons can’t let him take off running—more on that in a bit—but if they can get in his face, sack him, and force him to make off-schedule throws, his accuracy slips in drive-killing fashion. The more comfortable he is, the more dangerous he is, but blessedly the Falcons have not lacked in ability to get some kind of pressure thus far in 2025.
Oh, and like the Falcons, the Commanders have some shakiness baked in at kicker. Matt Gay is just 3/6 thus far in 2025, meaning if it comes down to a clutch kick, Washington may be in just as much trouble as Atlanta.
There are areas to take advantage of here, and it would be a nice week to get the offense untracked a bit. But for all that, I’m not expecting an easy road to victory.
The dual threat nature of both potential quarterbacks is something worth watching; it’s not clear just yet if we’ll see Daniels or Mariota but I’d lean toward Mariota. We know that Mariota is a dangerous, fast runner, and the Falcons have already scuffled when asked to keep Bo Nix and Bryce Young in the pocket. Daniels is no less dangerous and both much better and much more consistent passing the football; he’s also less prone to the occasional hilarious miscue. The Falcons can hope to crank up the pressure on Mariota if he plays to force some ill-advised throws, but they have to remember that once they miss, he’s gone. Mariota with time is also not shy about airing it out, and while Washington isn’t nearly as dangerous without Terry McLaurin, they can certainly still hurt this secondary. Mariota is not, in other words, an easy mode opponent for Atlanta; it’s just that even a limited Daniels is likely to pose real problems if he suits up.
Penix and this offensive line will have their hands full, too. While the Commanders haven’t forced many turnovers, they’ve been able to make plays on the ball and are ninth in the league in passes defensed. They’re also fifth in the NFL in sacks, meaning a slow, ponderous operation with a nervous Penix is going to lead to another long afternoon for Atlanta if this team can’t get it going. The worst thing that can happen is snowballing and receivers failing to take advantage of a reasonably porous secondary; Mike Saintrisil and Marshon Lattimore are talented but are both struggling mightily in the early going. The Falcons defense has looked so bad that a quality pass rush is still extremely threatening, and the Washington run defense is stout enough to potentially stymie Bijan a bit. Things have been compounding rapidly for this offense, and if that happens early in this one with mistakes and lost drives, the Falcons are probably in real trouble.
The Falcons are catching Washington at a decent time, with the team potentially missing Daniels and McLaurin and having just lost Will Harris in their secondary. This is a winnable game for a Falcons team that can limit mistakes, show the strength of their defense, and get Bijan rolling, as they did against Minnesota. The problem is that against Carolina and at times against Tampa Bay, they have been a far lesser team, and that version of our Falcons almost certainly will lose this game.
