Whoa, last night was fun, no? This playoff series win was at least five years in the making, which is exactly the last time the Braves won a playoff series. The Phillies have excelled at beating the Braves in October in recent years, but didn’t have a lot of luck with anyone else. I felt very confident in the 50-50 nature of this particular encounter, and felt Atlanta could pull this off if they don’t blow it. However that’s been the rub, nay a calloused blister formed over 35 years of (mostly) playoff disappointment.
But Michael Harris and crew pushed through years of angst and pain into the next playoff round.
The Braves will have to refocus on the red-eye flight this morning and prepare for a much different encounter tomorrow. The Dodgers will be rested and preparing to kick off their run toward a third World Series title. This is not a team like the Phillies, who needed to scratch and claw to advance and brought a jumbled and rest-deprived starting rotation. Let’s have a look at that Dodgers rotation and what will greet the Braves.
Starting Rotation
The Dodgers healthy starting pitching options look like this: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, Justin Wrobleski, and Emmet Sheehan. Is that all they have and no Shohei Ohtani, huh Dodgers? They aren’t the Evil Empire 2.0 for nothing, folks. The best option to start Game 1 will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto. After him the Dodgers can run three left-hand starting pitchers at Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II. Let’s walk through Yamamoto first.
Those are some menacing red bars there. The other menacing part is the arsenal, which includes a 96 MPH fastball, split-finger, cutter, curveball, sinker, and slider. The four-season fastball usage has gone down season, and so have the strikeouts. But he has back-to-back 4.6+ WAR seasons, so it’s a pick-your-poison type of encounter.
I would expect the Yoshinobu to dial up the fastball some more in Game 1. There’s no reason to ration the fastballs or the MPH. He will enter Game 1 after 10 days of rest. The rested bullpen will be able to pick him up later in the game. If you’re looking for green shoots, Michael Harris is 2-6 lifetime versus Yamamoto. Drake Baldwin has a home in 3 plate appearances. All of NLWCS starters have hits off him except Matt Olson and Mauricio Dubon. But combined they’re 8-44 with 1 home run and a .182/.250/.333 line.
Next up will be the two lefties: Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell. Let’s grudgingly look at these lefty options.
If you don’t know Tarik Skubal, you may wish that you haven’t. He was the prize trade deadline target this July, and of course the Dodgers with their army of talent were able to get his services. He’s a back-to-back Cy Young award winner. He’s accumulated 1075 strikeouts in his age 29 season and 24.7 WAR. There’s no telling what it would take to sign him in the offseason. But right now, he’s bearing down on the Braves.
His fastball touches 100, works a devastating changeup off it, a sinker, slider, and why not a curveball as well. He’s also never faced the Braves as a team. Neat. For Game 3, Blake Snell has 28.3 career WAR, but has been limited to 104 innings over the last few years. He exited a game on September 16th after 1 inning with a groin issue. But it’s apparently okay now.
Tyler Glasnow might be waiting in Game 4. He’s been back after a back injury that warranted a 60-day Injured List stint. He’s put up a 4.46/2.14/2.88 line since. He struck out 7 Braves in five innings in a game that the Braves would eventually win on August 25th.
Dodgers Heavy Hitters
The Dodgers are second in position player WAR at 26.9 WAR and feature nine hitters with at least 10 home runs. Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching, but he brings a team-high 30 HRs and 139 wRC+. Mookie Betts has a .780 OPS at short. Max Muncy has 29 home runs and a .830 OPS. Old friend Freddie Freeman has been merely pretty good with a 120 wRC+. Then there’s Andy Pages and Will Smith as well, and Teoscar Hernandez with his torture devices. It’s a deep lineup, everybody.
Dodgers bullpen
Lefty Tanner Scott brings a 100 MPH fastball and 25 saves into this series. However the Braves victimize him for two losses to August. Those would be the Ha-Seong Kim game and another featuring Ozzie Alibes with an 8th-inning RBI single.
I’m deeply concerned about Game 1
Yesterday these guys were dumping champaign on each other deep into the night. Since June, the Braves are 5-10 in the first game of a road series when they don’t get a travel day. They appear to arrive in new cities rather flat. This time they will have Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Tarik Skubal waiting on them. Now, they do get a travel day this time. But they will also arrive with their starting rotation in a mess.
Chris Sale bookended the previous series. Starting him on Sunday for Game 2 would keep him in line to pitch Game 5, or perhaps be the fireman in a Game 4. But what does Walt Weiss do for Game 1? It’s too early for Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes just pitched almost 1 turn through the order. No one knows yet if Bryce Elder will be available (at time of writing, at least). Martin Perez won’t be eligible to return until Game 3. And hero Ray Kerr just picked up 10 outs. So what can Walt Weiss do?
There’s Didier Fuentes, Brent Suter, Dylan Dodd and Robert Suarez as multi-inning options. JR Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver are also available. Weiss has limited options here. They might not have a starter and they may not score.
Are the Dodgers going to pitch to Ronald?
Ronald Acuña Jr went 1 for 9 in the NL Wild Card Series. However, he needed to be super patient. There were 4 walks, with one of those intentional in a Game 2 big spot. Overall, he had a very good .385 OBP versus the top end of the Philadelphia pitching staff. But it won’t fit The NarrativeTM and only the 1 for 9 will be remembered. However, look what he was served.
This is a classic Don Mattingly approach, especially as the Marlins manager. A heavy dose of inside pitches, and no fastballs in the healthy part of the zone. They dotted the upper inside corner, which is thankfully better than in his ear as in previous seasons. The walks definitely hurt the Phillies last night, mainly because of what Michael Harris would contribute. I’m not sure how the Dodgers will approach Ronald. But with some strong left handed pitching, they may not have to challenge him. Postseason games hinge on home runs, and they may elect to not give him that opportunity.
What happened to the outfield defense?
This was funny, but the play in right field overall in the Wild Card Series was bad, shambolic even. Even Michael Harris had trouble in the first inning of the series. But there’s a throughline between Ronald Acuña Jr and Bryce. Both have had numerous lower body injuries. Harper has been ailing since June. When Ronald would finally get comfortable at the plate this season, an injury would knock him off track.
While Harper has the offseason now to rest and perhaps consider options for his knee. The Braves will play again on Saturday afternoon. Designated hitter is an option for Acuña, but it’s also a position that Drake Baldwin needs while not behind the plate. Lane Thomas is returning, but I don’t know if this helps this particular situation. The Dodger Stadium’s right field has some nuance, so Ronnie will have to be on his toes.
So now, Ronald will be in a position where he may not have as many opportunities for power. And he may be hobbled in right field. Atlanta media is going to Atlanta media, and the national ones may pile on as well. So it’s essential for the Braves that Ronald make the most of this series. And it will save us a full offseason of hot takes.
Ray Kerr is not a playoff one-off
Kerr was acquired by the Atlanta Braves in exchange for the Braves assuming 4 million of Matt Carpenter’s contract over the 2023 offseason. I remember being very excited about this move. I saw a lefty with a 96 MPH fastball, 3 option years, and a 38/13 K/BB ratio. I thought at the very least that the Braves would have a bullpen arm in the prime of his playing years that they could bring up and down as needed. So upside would be 2024 Dylan Lee, and baseline a helpful arm. With Bryce Elder and Martin Perez possibly unavailable, he may be employed as a multiple inning option again this series.
Projected Pitching Matchups
Fangraphs is guessing Didier Fuentes versus Tarik Skubal in Game 1. They give the Dodgers a 62% chance to win. I think Brent Suter is more likely, though we may see both. And we may see Yamamoto first, because Suter versus Skubal feels like overkill.
Game 2 will feature Chris Sale versus Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Again, the Dodgers might flip the first too. But Fangraphs gives the Dodgers a 56% chance in this matchup.
Game 3 will be a battle of Tylers. Glasnow for the Dodgers will meet Mahle for the Braves. Fangraphs puts 56% Dodgers again.
I don’t feel comfortable guessing any deeper for this series. And I would argue with Fangraphs’ odds, but honestly those numbers feel slightly favorable. The Braves did win 5 of 6 matchups this season. So maybe these are okay.
Dodgers in 4?
In any other regular season scenario, I wouldn’t be worried about Los Angeles. The Braves tended to play up for good teams this year more than any other year. They have the second best winning percentage versus over-.500 teams. However, they will enter this round with depleted starting pitching, a sagging offense, and perhaps a metaphorical (not physical, please) hangover. But we might as well win now that we’re past the first round.
