Vanderbilt is favored to beat (checks notes) Louisiana State University? Huh? What is going on with the universe?
Anyway, time to find out if our writers think that Vanderbilt is going to follow through and get bowl eligible or if, well, this is going to play out like a typical Vanderbilt-LSU matchup.
What say our writers?
Thomas Stephenson
LSU’s defense so far has been great. Its offense… has yet to score more than 23 points in a game against FBS competition.
Something has to give here. Either LSU is able to shut down
the Diego Pavia offense, or LSU is going to have to score points in a way it has yet to do this season. I am betting on neither of these things happening and a Vanderbilt win.
The Pick: Vanderbilt 27, LSU 21
The SEC Upset Pick of the Week: Somehow picking Vandy to beat LSU isn’t it, so I will go with Ole Miss (+7.5) over GEORGIA, as tempting as it is to think that Mississippi State will put Billy Napier out of his misery.
Andrew VU ‘04
LSU has one of the best defenses in the country and a QB who entered the season with top of the first round hype, so Vanderbilt surely has no chance in this one, right?
(Record scratch; puts on the Mr. C Head) Not so fast, my friends! Nussmeier has been Suss-meier (oh God, I spend far too much of my life with teenagers) and the Gumbo Bengals running game burnt the roux. Seriously, both Diego Pavia and Sedrick the Entertainer (who has been woefully underfed) have more rushing yards this year than Yellow Shoe’s top RB, Caden Durham. Hell, add up back-ups Makhilyn Young and Blaze Berlowitz, and they would have more rushing yards than Bullshit Durham. As for Suss-meier, short of Saints-based nepotism, I’d be pretty shocked if he was picked on Day One at this rate, let alone the first round.
Further, as we saw in last week’s game against Ramajama, our lines can hang with the big boys.
Add in the home field advantage, the likelihood of a Pavia bounce-back and revenge game, the chances Tim Beck gives Sedrick the Entertainer the damned ball after last week’s criticism, and Brian Kelly being a world class dingus, and though I expect this one to be very close, I’m predicting the Pavia Brothers will have a celebratory reason to try to outdrink the traveling LSU fans at Lonnie’s at 3am tonight. (They will not be able to collectively outdrink even one LSU fan who’s a Mandeville Maw-Maw, of course, but will have a celebratory reason to make the attempt.)
The Pick: Vanderbilt 23, LSU 20.
The SEC Upset Pick of the Week: There’s actually a bunch of potential SEC upsets this week, but give me Ole Piss (+7.5) over Ugga, as Ugga still has not figured out their offense. There might be a theme of teams who haven’t figured out their offense this deep in the season losing this weekend.
Patrick Sawyer
The Alabama loss was a series of missed opportunities. In the past, “missed opportunities” meant chances to keep the game close enough to be interesting. I firmly believe that if Pavia does not fumble on the second offensive possession, Brock Taylor chips home a FG to go up 10-0 then Vanderbilt never looks back. The energy from the fumble then TD for Alabama kept the Tide in it. Tying the game up before halftime did the same, especially when Vanderbilt went 3-and-out to open the half.
It was Pavia’s second multi-turnover game as a Commodore, and the other was Texas last season. I doubt he coughs the ball up multiple times again Saturday, even with how good LSU’s defense is. Some of the things that led to the offense unraveling were self-inflicted and have not been present at other points in the Pavia/Beck/Kill era. I am almost concerningly assured that the offense will get right back on track Saturday morning.
Luckily, the defense gets to face a struggling Bayou Bengals offense. Garrett Nussmeier is a highly talented QB, but things are just not clicking. Nussmeier has thrown for 4 more yards than Pavia on the season from 45 more attempts. He has thrown for 9 TDs, 5 INTs, and been sacked 7 times. For comparison to Pavia, that is 5 fewer TDs and 1 more INT while taking 3 more sacks. LSU also only averages 3.9 yards per carry on the ground while Vanderbilt averages 6.6 yards per carry. Their schedule might be slightly tougher, but not that significantly.
The Vanderbilt fan dread kicks in every time I see that every statistical model and pundit is picking Vanderbilt in this one. It feels wrong for that to happen against a team ranked #10. I as a Vanderbilt die-hard am supposed to feel good about their chances. Everyone else is supposed to laugh and say, “You’re Vanderbilt.” Still, this game feels like it should go the Commodores’ way.
The Pick: Vanderbilt 31, LSU 17
The SEC Upset Pick of the Week: I think our newly-minted arch-rival Mississippi State takes down Florida. They got their big win 2 weeks ago over Texas then got handled by Texas A&M. State’s last game was also against the Aggies, but they have had a bye week to prepare.
I also think there may be another upset in a game where a meteor needs to strike. That result could set up some very interesting things at the end of the season if Vanderbilt gets back on track.
Cole Sullivan
The Tigers have not scored above 23 all year save for their FCS game. Aside from the Bama game (which was much closer than the score indicates) we have not scored below 31. We almost beat them last year. I was there and I saw the difference a healthy Diego would have made. We have a healthy Diego this year and are coming off a bye. I really don’t see how we don’t blow these pussycats out of the water. Nussmeier is NOT. GOOD.
The Pick: Vanderbilt 34, LSU 20
The SEC Upset Pick of the Week: I think Auburn beats Missourah (spits) for no other reason than I think it would be funny to see.
