Daylen Lile is one of my favorite players on the Washington Nationals, but he is really struggling right now. The 23 year old is 4 for his last 27, and has scuffled badly since his amazing series against the Reds. When you watch Lile hit, it is easy to diagnose his problem, he is swinging at everything.
Lile has been chasing more than he did last year all season long. However, this problem has really caused him trouble lately. Last season, Lile’s chase rate was 26.7%, which is slightly better than the
league average. This year that chase rate is up 10 points to 36.7%, and it is causing him to struggle.
One of the secrets of Daylen Lile’s success last year was that his swing decisions were very sharp. He was chasing less than the average hitter while swinging at pitches in the zone at a 75% clip, which is very high. Lile was using his premium hit tool to make contact on pitches in the zone while laying off the junk. Being aggressive in the zone and patient out of it is part of what makes guys like Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager such special hitters.
It is also one of the reasons I loved Lile so much entering the season. His rookie season was so impressive offensively. Lile hit .299 with an .845 OPS as a 22 year old. I love comparing him to Michael Brantley, and I still think he has that ability offensively. However, he needs to get back to making good swing decisions, or else that comparison will not stick.
I am being harsh on Lile right now, but he has not been awful either. Despite a heavy slump, his OPS is still above .700 and he is close to a league average hitter. Once he gets on one of his signature heaters, that OPS will be right back up towards .750. Lile has also been much better defensively this season, which helps his profile massively.
Lile’s batted ball data is pretty similar to last year as well. He is whiffing more, but part of that is due to the chase issues. Fundamentally, he is still the same guy other than the chase problem. We still see the flashes of excellence from him as well. That series in Cincinnati in front of his family was absolute fireworks. I thought that would kickstart his campaign, but instead, he has gone into a tailspin since then.
All of those home runs in that Reds series may have given Lile some of the wrong ideas as well. There are times at the plate where he is trying to do too much. You see that a lot with runners in scoring position, where Lile is a dreadful 9 for 64. When you talk to Lile and people in the building, you get the sense that he is a guy who has very high standards and can be hard on himself. Right now, that is leading to a lot of pressing and trying to break out of his slump with one swing.
Having high standards is a positive quality, but it can be a curse as well. In a 162 game season, you do not want to get too high or too low. Lately, it feels like Lile is chasing that magic from last September, both figuratively and literally. He just seems like a player who needs a day off right now.
Long term, I am still very bullish on Lile, especially with his defensive improvements. His fielding run value has gone from -10 to +3 in just one season. Lile’s elite speed always gave him the ability to be a good defender, but this year he has a much better idea of what he is doing in the outfield.
If he can combine this year’s defense with last year’s hitting, Lile can be a borderline star player. I truly believe that player is in there as well. He is just 23 years old and in his first full season as a big leaguer. Daylen Lile has a sweet swing, but right now he is just using it too much.
With this coaching staff, I have faith that they can get Lile back to his best. That would make this lineup even more dangerous. Sophomore slumps are a real thing, and Daylen Lile is going through one right now. However, he will come out the other side of this better than ever once he recalibrates his swing decisions.
