When the Los Angeles Rams drafted Ty Simpson, they targeted a player who was praised for quick processing and a high football IQ within an offensive system at Alabama that is considered more complicated and “pro style” than other programs. However, we have a clear example of a recent first-round pick who came out of the same system and had far more college experience running it: Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
If Simpson ends up being as good as Penix, did the Rams make the right decision with
the 13th overall pick?
That is the most important question at hand for Rams fans wondering whether or not Sean McVay made the right decision in tabbing Simpson as Matthew Stafford’s eventual successor in the draft.
Kalen DeBoer’s offense
As the offensive coordinator at Indiana in 2019, DeBoer’s offense scored 36.6 points per game in the six starts by Penix prior to his injury that season.
Indiana’s offense got significantly worse with Peyton Ramsey and after the season DeBoer left to be the head coach at Fresno State.
The first year was a wash because of the pandemic, but in 2021, quarterback Jake Haener was electric with 33 touchdowns in DeBoer’s offense as Fresno State finished 10-3. A player who probably wouldn’t have received NFL consideration before then, Haener became a fourth-round pick by the Saints.
(Unrelated: Rams running back Ronnie Rivers was also on that team.)
In 2022, DeBoer took the head coaching job at Washington, replacing Jimmy Lake, who now works for the Rams and was also on the Falcons’ staff during Penix’s rookie season in 2024.
That season, Penix transferred to Washington to reunite with DeBoer and together the duo went wild over the next two seasons:
- Penix completed 65.4% of 1,109 pass attempts
- He threw 67 touchdowns vs. 19 interceptions
- He finished 2nd in Heisman voting in 2023
- Washington went 25-3
In their second year together, DeBoer and Penix went to the national championship game, losing to Michigan 34-13. Previous to that, Penix threw for 430 yards in a pivotal win over Texas.
When people talk about DeBoer’s offense producing something ‘special,’ Penix is the example they point to. Their chemistry and Penix’s arm talent helped make him the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. It’s not too dissimilar to the way people talk about Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay’s relationship.
It’s important that Simpson ends up having the same impact with McVay after Stafford retires.
Similar to Simpson, fans were shocked that Penix was drafted that high. In fact, leading up to the days before the draft, Penix was widely expected to be a late first round pick, if he even made it onto day one. Penix, JJ McCarthy, and Bo Nix were long thought to be “day 2 picks” prior to a random late surge in their value.
Two years later, a similar narrative emerged around Ty Simpson. Does that actually mean anything for his NFL future?
Simpson-DeBoer
After taking the Huskies to a title game, DeBoer parlayed his 15-minutes of coaching fame into filling the shoes of Nick Saban, the most successful head coach in maybe the last 50 years. And the first major decision he made was…
Starting Jalen Milroe over Ty Simpson.
Milroe shares little in common with Penix, but rushing for 20 touchdowns probably helped offset the concerns that Alabama had about his passing accuracy. Even so, at no point did DeBoer or the Alabama coaching staff wonder if Simpson should take over and if he could give them a more complete offense—which is even more relevant given that he was a junior and not a true freshman.
Three years into his college career, Simpson still wasn’t as ready to run DeBoer’s offense as Milroe.
Fine, it happens. I mean, Penix seemed good with it at Indiana and Haener was good with it at Fresno State, but I guess it didn’t jibe with Simpson as much as those two.
In 2025, Simpson wins a QB competition over two other players and Alabama’s record improves slightly (they lost four games both seasons) but they actually score fewer points per game with Simpson compared to Milroe: a dip from 33.8 PPG to 29.5 PPG.
This is especially evident later in the year, as Alabama scored 7 points in a loss to Georgia and 3 points in a loss to Indiana.
If you don’t look at blowout wins over Louisiana-Monroe (73-0) and Eastern Illinois (56-0), the latter of which being a non-major program, Alabama’s point differential and season record is even worse. It was the first time since 2007 that the Crimson Tide failed to rank as a top-3 team at any point in the year.
With Penix at Washington, DeBoer was atop the coaching world.
With Milroe and Simpson at Alabama, DeBoer inherited the premier program in college football and still hasn’t delivered the level of success fans expect. Even now, there’s no clear successor to Simpson.
If experience with DeBoer’s system is a plus in Simpson’s resume, then Penix’s track record in the NFL should hold weight too. Is that a good thing?
Penix or Simpson?
The two are very different as quarterbacks, but really it should be their adaptability to any system that counts, not just what they were asked to do in college. Even now we know that Penix is on his second offensive coordinator after former Rams coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson were fired and replaced by Kevin Stefanski.
It doesn’t matter if you can run DeBoer’s system anymore. It matters if you can run it for Stefanski and Tommy Rees.
The Falcons aren’t even sure if he can because they signed Tua Tagovailoa—another former Alabama quarterback—to compete with him.
Two seasons in, Penix is a bust. There’s no other way to put it when you’re the eighth overall pick because by the end of year two no team should be signing your competition.
Penix is completing 59% of his career throws and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Sure, he can come back this year, stay healthy, settle into his role, and become a star next season. Then forget the “bust” label.
But through two seasons, his experience in DeBoer’s system—which was a lot more than Simpson’s—has been irrelevant.
Penix has a better arm than Simpson. He’s bigger than Simpson. He had three times as many pass attempts in college as Simpson. He won a lot more games in college than Simpson. He was drafted higher than Simpson.
If Ty Simpson succeeds in the NFL, it probably won’t be because of DeBoer’s offense. What Penix has done — or will do — is largely irrelevant to Simpson’s long-term future. And if the argument is that experience in DeBoer’s ‘pro-style’ offense matters, the evidence from Penix and Haener suggests otherwise.
It won’t be long before we find out if Simpson is Sean McVay’s next “Matthew Stafford”, or if he’s the one who turns McVay into the next “Kalen DeBoer”.
