Just for curiosity, I checked the math on flipping a coin and getting heads eight consecutive times. You’d expect to find four such sequences out of 10,000 flips, or about once every 2,500 times. I think I could take that math and apply it to once every 15 years if you were a team that played around .500 ball. I feel safe in saying there are some assumptions in there that don’t hold up to scrutiny. This isn’t a coin flip. The last six of these wins are at home. Even if we give both of these two teams
credit for their capabilities and not how they’ve played over the first month of the season, I suspect the Cubs are a bit better than a coinflip at home against them.
Without drifting into the abstract, we know that the Cubs last won eight in 2023. As we talked about yesterday, that team wasn’t particularly good (winning 83). So this kind of streak isn’t necessarily a launching pad. That said, if you figure 88 wins is an almost definite playoff berth, the team accomplished nine percent of the wins they will need for the season over the last eight games. There are never guarantees, but this kind of stretch can alter the trajectory for a team. It’s way too early for “if the team played .500…” but if they played .500 the rest of the way, they’d win 84. The point is, the team doesn’t have to do much to reach 85 wins which is either going to be just in or just out of the playoffs.
It’s going to get harder, but enjoy this.
The formula is much the same as what it has been throughout the streak. The Cubs held the Phillies to two runs. They’ve allowed 20 runs over the eight wins (2.5 per game). But it’s not a one way equation. The offense put up seven. They’ve scored 58 runs over the eight wins (7.25 per game). So a 7-2 win is right within the center of the range of outcomes.
The top offensive performers? Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong. So in brief, the guys who they didn’t get much production out of over the first 20 games are leading the way now. A seamless rotation and passing of the torch. Everything you’d hope for out of a team. My confidence in this team in the regular season is based exactly on what we are seeing. In the grind of the regular season, roster depth is the key to piling up enough wins to be a playoff team. The sheer number of Cubs, particularly offensively, who can beat you is significant.
The Cubs had 13 more hits in this one. Seven different Cubs had hits. Seven different Cubs scored. This was a deep and balanced attack. The pitching was terrific. Seven singles, two doubles and no walks. It was not enough offensive production for the Phillies to sustain any offense.
Another fun win. Four-game series sweeps are pretty rare. The last one of those for the Cubs was back in 2021. Yep. Another not good season. So these rare occurrences are certainly not predictive. Hopefully this streak puts quite a bit of win in the sails of this team. This probably isn’t a great team. But perhaps it can ride this wave for quite some time.
Three Positives:
- Alex Bregman gets my top spot with three hits including a triple. He scored a run. He’s heating up.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong also had three hits, one a double. He drove in two. Pete’s also heating up. He’s hitting .345 over his last eight games.
- Ben Brown. I felt like the game was very much in the balance when he came in. He faced 10 batters, retiring seven, five of those by strikeout. It was 4-2 when he entered and 6-2 when he left.
Game 24, April 22: Cubs 7, Phillies 2 (15-9)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.220). 3-5, 3B, R
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.127). 3-4, 2 RBI, SB
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.093). 2-4, HR, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-037.). 1-4, 2B, R
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-027.). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-017.). 1-5, R
WPA Play of the Game: Edmundo Sosa batted in the second with runners on first and second with one out, the Phillies down one. He doubled and a run scored. (.157)
*Cubs Play of the Game: PCA batted with a runner on second and two outs in the second. He doubled in a run. (.115)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 23 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 247 of 258 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Nico Hoerner +9.5
- Michael Conforto/Shōta Imanaga +7
- Seiya Suzuki/Jacob Webb -8
- Pete Crow-Armstrong -13
This was a “rotation” game for the Rizzo award. Every one who was on the positive side for the game had been on the negative side for the year and vice versa. H&G has so much inertia towards the center.
Up Next: Next stop Javy Báez? I’ve given you my favorite No. 7, my favorite No. 8 and now let’s see if we can get to my favorite No. 9. It won’t be easy, but I don’t want this ride to stop. In a rare occurrence, three-fifths of the NL Central lost Wednesday night. The Cubs move into sole possession of second, half a game behind the Reds. The Brewers drop to last. The win pace sits at 101.25. Unbelievable.
Edward Cabrera (2-0, 2.38 ERA, 22.2 IP) starts for the Cubs. He had a quality start and a win last time out and then got an extra day off. The Phillies start Cristopher Sánchez (2-2, 1.59, 28.1) for the sixth time. Last time, he was a tough-luck loser, throwing six innings and allowing eight hits and no earned runs. He struck out eight and has struck out 39 already.
It’s a tough one on paper. But find a way and keep this rolling.
