The Carolina Panthers won their third game in a row on Sunday to improve to 4-3, the first time they’ve had a winning record in about 25 years based on my feelings and not facts. They reached that milestone
by capturing a rare road win, the second of Bryce Young’s career. The win and the current record have everyone feeling good, but somewhat lost in the shuffle is the fact that the offense was not good against the New York Jets.
The performance and the health of Young make expectations for this week murky. On one hand, the Panthers are coming off an uninspiring performance and are facing a Bills team that is supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. On the other, the Jets defense might actually be pretty good, while the Bills defense has been pretty poor this season. Plus there are bonus points for this game being at home, where the Panthers are an entirely different team for some reason.
The Panthers do catch the Bills in a tough spot. Buffalo lost two surprising games in a row going into their bye week and are going to come out looking to right the ship in Carolina. Their offense hasn’t been its usual explosive self, so it hasn’t been able to outweigh a defense that allowed 6.4 yards per play in the two losses. For reference, Carolina has allowed 3.7 yards per play during their three game winning streak, second best in the league during that span. The Bills are probably going to better that number, so the Panthers offense has to keep up. Here’s how they can do that:
- Keep grounding and pounding. The run game struggled against the Jets, but to be fair, the Jets run defense is about the only good element of that team. The Bills rank 32nd in the league in run defense DVOA, so the Panthers should have every opportunity to make this game look like the Dolphins and Cowboys games on offense. Keep feeding the ball to Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. They’re going to find room to run. Bijan Robinson torched this defense with 170 yards on just 19 carries a couple weeks ago. Carolina should aim to generate another 200 yards of rushing if they can keep this game under control.
- When airing it out, target Tetairoa McMillan. I know I’m going out on a limb here suggesting that a team throw the ball to its best pass catcher, but this is an opportunity for McMillan to have a real breakout game. The Bills have struggled to corral number one receivers in recent weeks with Drake London most recently tallying 158 yards and a touchdown (almost two) on 10 catches. The Bills starting outside corners Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford rank 80thand 83rd out of 112 CBs according to Pro Football Focus’s grading system. They’ve given up a healthy helping of chunk plays on the outside, and McMillan should be able to beat them should Young or Andy Dalton give him a chance. Maybe Xavier Legette can keep the momentum going as well.
- Keep the chains moving and minimze possessions. I’m normally a big “time of possession is overrated” guy, but I think there are exceptions if one team clearly outclasses another. In a large sample size, it’s hard to see this Panthers offense going score for score with a motivated Josh Allen. The best chance to keep pace is to keep the number of possessions low so the defense only needs to make a couple of stops to keep the game within reach. If the offense starts going three and out or turning the ball over, it’s very easy to see a Buffalo avalanche engulfing Carolina and turning this game into a laugher.
