The Denver Broncos have a double dose of motivation this Sunday.
They were embarrassed by the Jacksonville Jaguars the last time these two teams played. The Broncos are coming off a humiliating showing on Monday Night Football in the opener.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, meanwhile, just whipped Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns. On paper, it looks like Denver is in for another tough afternoon. How does Jacksonville replicate the 34-20 beatdown from last season?
To get a feel for the Jaguars
and what they can take from the playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, we go “behind enemy lines” with Gus Logue from Big Cat Country.
MHR: How tough was the playoff loss to the Bills? What can the Jags take from that loss into this season?
Gus: The loss to Buffalo was brutal. Jacksonville entered last postseason on a league-best eight-game winning streak, highlighted by a convincing dub in Denver. Everyone in Duval County believed they were one of the best teams in the AFC. So the loss was tough because it felt like the Jaguars had a lot more football to play, although they used it as motivation in the offseason. After clobbering the Browns in Week 1, head coach Liam Coen said his team was hungry “to get a bad taste out of their mouth with the first time they played a game since, obviously, Buffalo.” Jacksonville wants to play sticker coverage this season to help its pass rush get home, partly because it couldn’t affect Josh Allen in their Wild Card Round exit.
MHR: Aside from it being against Cleveland, why was Jacksonville so dominant in the opener?
Gus: The top reason was probably the difference in quarterback play. Deshaun Watson’s traditional box score numbers don’t fully reflect how much he tanked Cleveland’s offense with lazy footwork and poor reads. Looking at Expected Points Added, Watson generated -2.8 EPA compared to 18.6 EPA for Trevor Lawrence, who lifted his own offense with aggressive decisions and jaw-dropping touchdowns. Those figures indicate that Jacksonville’s quarterback advantage gave them a 20-point advantage — but the Jags won by 24 — so I would also credit the coaching staff. Coen has proven himself as effective a culture builder as he is a play caller, and you could say the same for defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, who will become a head coach himself in just a matter of time. The Jaguars have a balanced roster, a franchise quarterback, and a real-deal coaching staff. They were dominant in the season opener because they’re a really good team! It’s not like they won the turnover battle 5-0 or anything.
MHR: How do the Jags replicate last season’s win against the Broncos this Sunday?
Gus: By continuing to lean into a potent passing attack. Lawrence has been letting it rip ever since last season’s Week 10 collapse in Houston, and based on last week’s game, he’s not letting his foot off the pedal. The Jaguars will go under center and use heavy personnel more often this season, but the strength of the team is Lawrence throwing downfield to a receiver room that’s five deep. He’ll pick on cornerbacks not named Surtain in Week 2 the same way he did in last season’s meeting. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars plan to repeat as the NFL’s No. 1 run defense, so they’ll key in on J.K. Dobbins and screen plays to make Bo Nix beat them with his arm. Campanile only blitzed Nix on 14.3% of dropbacks in their last meeting, which was the second-lowest rate for the Jaguars all season, but he may want to turn up the dial after seeing Nix take 4 sacks against the Chiefs in Week 1.
MHR: What are your thoughts on the current spread? And what is your best bet for Sunday’s game?
Gus: It’s tempting to take the points with the Jaguars. They beat the Broncos by two touchdowns last season, and since that game, I’ve grown more confident in Jacksonville and less confident in Denver. I still view the Broncos as Super Bowl contenders because their depth chart and coaching staff are too good to ignore — but IDK about Bo, y’all. As for my best bet for Sunday, I like Parker Washington to go over 51.5 receiving yards. He had a career-high 145 yards against the Broncos last year and a game-high 83 yards against the Browns last week. He’s the No. 1 pass-catcher on what projects to be a top-10, maybe even top-5 passing offense. His weekly receiving yard props should be in the 70s or 80s soon.
MHR: What are your expectations and predictions for Sunday?
Gus: I don’t want to fall victim to recency bias, but it was hard to watch Monday Night Football and not get excited about what Jacksonville’s under-center run game could do against Denver. Second-year running back Bhayshul Tuten looked impressive in the season opener. According to PFF, the only player with more broken tackles last week was … wait for it … Kenneth Walker III. I’ll predict a breakout game for Tuten and a second-half interception by Travis Hunter to seal another double-digit-point win at Mile High. Jaguars 23, Broncos 13.
