The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are currently franchises headed in opposite directions. The Bills are 2-0 and sitting atop the AFC East. The Dolphins are 0-2 and seem to be on the verge of imploding. All signs point to a big Buffalo victory this week; however, a short week plus a date with a divisional rival desperate for a victory should give Bills Mafia some pause before they go making any declarations of the sort.
Perhaps it’s years of being let down by the Bills talking, but this game isn’t
one I’m writing in the win column just yet. While Buffalo has handled Miami of late, winning six straight matchups and 13 of the 15 games where Josh Allen has been the starting quarterback, none of that matters on Thursday night. The Bills will need all hands on deck in order to win this one.
Which five players are we watching this week? Here are our picks for this big early season divisional matchup.
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QB Josh Allen
After a heroic first game, Allen took a back seat to his rushing attack, namely James Cook, in a 30-10 blowout victory over the New York Jets. Allen also joined Joey Bosa and me in the “guys with huge noses club,” except, unlike the aforementioned lifetime members of that club, Allen is only an honorary member thanks to the shot to the schnoz he took early in Buffalo’s Week 2 win.
Miami has been a mess defensively, playing the run and the pass poorly. Given that Allen has dominated the Dolphins over his career, that doesn’t bode well for the aqua and orange. Allen might not need to be Superman for the Bills to win, but it would be nice to watch him take advantage of a defensive secondary that’s currently ranked No. 30 in yards per attempt, having allowed Daniel Jones and Drake Maye to average 8.4 yards per pass this season.
With respect to those quarterbacks, they aren’t Allen. Look for a much better stat line from Allen this week.
(Insert Pass Catcher Here)
Who will it be next? Allen’s top target from 2024, Khalil Shakir, hasn’t seen much action so far, catching just seven passes for 76 yards in two games. I have a funny feeling it’s going to be a tight end here, with old friend Tyrel Dodson being a weak link as a coverage linebacker in the intermediate middle of the defense.
I imagine that Keon Coleman will mix it up with former Bill Rasul Douglas in what should be a tough matchup overall. I think the Bills can find space in the middle, and if they commit to the play-action pass game, they might be able to dial up some big gains in the middle of the field. The question is whether it will be Dalton Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman, Joshua Palmer, or someone else making the big gains.
DE Joey Bosa
Bosa has had a nose for the opposing quarterback so far this season, notching one sack, two quarterback hits, and three forced fumbles so far. Two of those forced fumbles came last week against Justin Fields. Tua Tagovailoa has fumbled 37 times in his career, but only four of those fumbles have come against Buffalo. Tagovailoa has thrown more interceptions against the Bills (10) than he has against any other team, however.
Look for Bosa to force Tagovailoa into at least one turnover. He might do it by hitting the sixth-year man, or he may do it by speeding up his internal clock via his presence. Either way, Bosa should have a big impact on the game.
LB Terrel Bernard
With how quickly Tagovailoa likes to throw the ball, it’s imperative that Buffalo’s defense is aligned and ready at all levels. Bernard is responsible for so much over the middle, and even without a real receiving threat at tight end, Miami still boasts a dangerous short- and intermediate-range passing attack thanks to running back De’Von Achane.
Bernard has seven tackles, one tackle for loss, one quarterback hit, and one fumble recovery this year. He has a nose for turnovers, and against a team that could be ready to take some risks, he needs to be ready to force one on Thursday night.
CB Christian Benford
As great as Benford has been throughout his career, he’s been just okay so far this year. He was very good in run support, especially last week against the Jets, but he’s allowed a much higher completion rate than he generally has throughout his career. Benford has allowed 73% of the passes thrown his way to be completed for 102 yards and two scores. Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson combined for a 140.9 passer rating when targeting him through these first two weeks.
Buffalo seems to be playing more man-to-man this season, which could be a reason for some of the early struggles. It also could just be that the Ravens were very good in Week 1, which is skewing the overall numbers given the small sample size. In any case, Benford is better than he’s played the first two weeks. It would be nice to watch him dominate on Thursday whether he’s matched up with Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
