Despite only being 25 years old, Luis Garcia Jr. is the longest tenured Washington National. In the 2020 season, a 20 year old Garcia was rushed to the MLB, and he has more or less been a fixture since then. However, after yet another up and down season, it feels like it might be time for the Nats to move on from their long-time second baseman.
After a career year in 2024, it looked like Garcia had finally taken that next step and was well positioned to be the Nats second baseman of the future. He
had a true breakout both offensively and defensively.
At the plate, Garcia finally tapped into his power while remaining a high average hitter. He slugged a career high 18 homers while hitting at a .282 clip. Sure, Garcia was not walking much, but the rest of his game was so solid it did not matter. He had a 110 wRC+, which is a great mark for a second baseman.
It was not just the offensive side of the ball where Garcia thrived. He broke out defensively and on the bases as well. Before 2024, Garcia had been a below average defender. After a disastrous experiment at shortstop, the Nats eventually moved him to second base full time in 2023.
However, he was not great at second either in 2023. He put up -4 outs above average while struggling with the bat too. Something special happened in 2024 though. After having to fight tooth and nail to keep his job in a camp battle with Trey Lipscomb, Garcia was locked in defensively.
He put up 5 outs above average in his great 2024 season. Garcia looked more athletic, more engaged and more aware of his positioning. That fielding is why he put up 3 fWAR last year. Garcia also stole 22 bases and was an asset on the basepaths.
However, in 2025, the Nationals second baseman has come back down to earth on all sides of the ball. His OPS has gone from .762 to .707, with all his numbers regressing slightly across the board. The average has gone from .282 to .262 and the power is down a bit as well. For some hitters, a low average is alright, but given Garcia’s swing heavy approach, he needs to hit for average to get on base.
For me, the bat is actually the least of my worries for him. His underlying data is very strong. Garcia’s batted ball data has either stayed the same or actually gotten better. His expected numbers are actually better than last year. While he is chasing a lot, he has always chased a ton. It is just who he is as a hitter.
The biggest red flag in Garcia’s season in my opinion has been the defense. It has fallen off a cliff both statistically and from the eye test. He has actually been pretty sure handed with just 6 errors, but his range has diminished significantly.
That has led to his outs above average going from +5 to -7. He is simply not getting to balls he got to in 2024. I think that has to do with waning athleticism. Garcia has never been the best athlete, but he was good enough before. However, that looks to have changed.
In 2024, his sprint speed was in the 45th percentile. Not elite, but solid and with his instincts, he made it work. However, this year it is down to the 27th percentile, with Garcia looking much slower. That is also playing out on the bases, where he has not stolen as much and his overall base running value has regressed.
The Nationals clearly see this. For me, the biggest indication of that is the fact they are toying with the idea of moving him to first base. That would be a disastrous move for his career. While Garcia’s bat is good for a second baseman, it is light for the first base position. His plate discipline and so-so power would become issues.
So what should the Nationals do with Garcia? Well, he has two more years until he hits free agency. I think the Nats should test the trade market to see if anyone is interested. Garcia should have at least some value. His offensive fundamentals are still strong despite a down statistical season and he is only a year removed from being a top 10 player at his position.
If another team thinks that Garcia could get back to his 2024 ways on defense, he would be an intriguing target for them. While Garcia clearly has potential, I think it would be best for all parties if they move on. It just seems like a relationship that had some potential but has gone stale.
It would also open the door for CJ Abrams to move to second base. At shortstop, Abrams’ arm and range is tested, but he would be a much better fit at second base. However, if the right offer does not come in, holding on to Garcia would not be the worst thing.
He is due for positive regression offensively and has some upside. At the end of the day, we know that Luis Garcia Jr. is not the long term second baseman. However, he is good enough to hold down the fort for another year if he needs to. His future will be interesting to watch this offseason.
