On paper, the ACC looks like a “who’s playing for second?” type of race. Miami, fresh off an appearance in the National Championship Game, has a loaded roster and more continuity than the rest. However, last year’s ACC race looked like Miami and Clemson a cut above the rest, and Duke (Duke?!) ended on top of the heap after beating an upstart Virginia team in the ACC Championship Game. Are we in for more surprises this season, or is Miami bound to run away with the conference title?
Miami
As I mentioned
in the intro, the Canes have the best roster on paper and are an inner-circle contender for the National Championship. Their losses last year were by three, six (in OT), and six. QB Carson Beck is gone, but while he played well, he was hardly the straw that stirred the drink for Miami. Darian Mensah will take over after a wonderful season at Duke with a 34:6 TD:INT ratio. The skill position players are elite: WR Malachi Toney is back, as are Mark Fletcher and CharMar Brown in the backfield. If there is a question mark on the roster, it might be how to replace star DEs Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. They filled one of those spots with coveted Georgia transfer Damon Wilson. With blue chip recruits in the pipeline and both coordinators aback under Mario Cristobal, it might be another tough season for Miami haters.
SMU
After Miami, the rest of the list is full of contenders, but certainly not co-favorites. I listed the Mustangs here first, though there’s little separating the rest of the teams on this list. The general trend is very positive. Rhett Lashlee has been a home run hire, winning 9-11 games in each of the last three seasons. They recently completed a $100m remodel of their home stadium. They’re bringing back QB Kevin Jennings, who has proven himself adept at running Lashlee’s high-speed passing attack. On the other hand, they lose a ton around Jennings. Both coordinators are out the door, and four of the top five receiving targets from last season are gone. Lahslee’s offensive approach minimizes my concern on that side of the ball, but they took a big step forward on defense the last two years. Will they be able to keep that high bar without Scott Symons, who left for the Dallas Cowboys?
Clemson
It was trendy to put Clemson in the tier of dark horse CFP contenders last year. Instead, they flopped to a 7-6 record in a continuing downward trend. It was the most losses for Dabo Swinney since 2010, his second year. The Tigers have lost at least four for the last three seasons and at least three for the last five. So, three double-digit win seasons in five, what’s the big problem? Well, 20 losses in five years isn’t so bad, but it stands out against 14 combined losses in the previous nine. Has the game passed Dabo by? In a general sense, no, but there are little things that seem to be costing Clemson the edge against other national powerhouses. They finally took 10 transfers this year, a huge increase for the school but still a small number by the national standard. He brought back Chad Morris as the OC, who previously had the job from 2011-14. Since then, Morris has had a spotty track record as the HC at SMU and Arkansas and the OC at Auburn. He hasn’t called plays for anyone since 2021 at Auburn. While none of those things necessarily mean Morris is outdated, it’s another datapoint against the Tigers. These are the question marks. On the positive side, Clemson remains absolutely loaded with talent as Swinney has remained a great HS recruiter. They probably won’t have more than 1-2 games this year where they are at a talent disadvantage. Whether they have the coaching, depth, and experience to match will determine how far they go.
Louisville
Even if Jeff Brohm has been consistently rock solid at Louisville, I find them to be one of the least exciting good teams in the country. One thing going in their favor is transfer QB Lincoln Keinholz, a former UW commit who backed up at Ohio State to this point. They have some good returning production on defense at at RB, where Keyjuan and Isaac Brown are probably most interesting element of the team. They have to rebuild their offensive and defensive lines, as well as break in new defensive coordinators. These are both yellow flags, though they did get some promising transfers in these areas. If Keinholz can quickly establish himself as a better and more dynamic option than Miller Moss, perhaps Louisville’s rushing attack and challenge for the conference title. Otherwise, it could be another season with too many close losses to feel like a real contender.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are not actually part of the ACC and cannot win the Conference Championship, but they are an “affiliate” of the ACC and won’t appear in any of the other P4 previews in this series, so I’m adding them here. They warrant inclusion because they might be the best team in the country. If you want to look for a Championship contender outside the B1G and SEC, they’re are definitely the best bet. Marcus Freeman has elevated them above their previous status of “good, but behind the teams that play 9 real conference opponents.” CJ Carr is an outstanding QB with a year of experience under his belt. WR Jordan Faison and RBs Jaden Greathouse and Aneyas Williams make up an excellent skill position core. The defense looks stacked, especially in the secondary. They didn’t generate a ton of pressure last year, but they have ascending talent and transfers who should help there. On paper, it’s hard to find a flaw with Notre Dame.
Prediction: I will take Miami to beat SMU in the ACC title game. I think the Canes’ ceiling is ever-so-slightly lower than last year, but a return trip to the CFP is very much in the cards. Consider the SMU pick a vote of confidence in Rhett Lashlee to put together a better passing offense than any other single thing the rest of the contenders will do.
Who are your picks to win the ACC? Discuss in the comments.
