We are through week 11, and the AFC playoff picture is coming into focus, and thankfully, it includes our Denver Broncos. After their big win over the Chiefs, they improved to a 9-2 record and are currently
the number one seed in the AFC.
Things are great in Broncos Country!
They now head into their much-needed BYE week and should get several key contributors back from injury, including reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II. They will be getting healthy at the right time and will look to finish the season strong. However, they will face competition for the top seed in the AFC as the New England Patriots, led by Drake Maye, are also 9-2, while the Colts, who hold a tie-breaker over the Broncos, are 8-2.
As for the AFC West, the Broncos are in control of their own destiny after they defeated the Chiefs, and the Jaguars absolutely destroyed the Chargers on Sunday.
So, with all that said, let’s take a look at the AFC Playoff picture and see where each team stands through 11 weeks and the road ahead for all the playoff contenders.
Division Leaders
1. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Man, it feels good starting this off with the Broncos.
The Broncos have won 8 straight games, lead the AFC West, are currently the number 1 seed in the AFC, are coming off a big win over the Chiefs, and will head into their BYE week with a 9-2 record.
They are led by their dominant defense, which leads the NFL in sacks, and have been performing at a high level despite not having All-Pro and reigning DPOY corner Pat Surtain II in the secondary. That should change coming out of the BYE, while also potentially getting back linebacker Alex Singleton, as well as other injured players. They are getting healthy at the right time. As for their offense, they are inconsistent, but hopefully turned the corner with a strong performance vs. the Chiefs
Looking ahead, they do have a favorable schedule coming out of the BYE week, but face the Packers, Jags, Chiefs, and Chargers to end the season. They have proven they can compete with anyone and will once again need to prove that as they finish out the season.
If they do that, not only can they win the AFC West, but they can be the number one seed in the AFC heading into the playoffs.
Remaining Games: BYE, at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs (Christmas Night), and vs. Chargers
2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Like the Broncos, the Patriots keep on winning! They’re led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who is having a surprise MVP-caliber year, and Head Coach Mike Vrabel, who always has a well-coached team. On top of that, Broncos draft darling TreVeyon Henderson is starting to break out which gives them yet another explosive element to their offense.
After having a disappointing 4-13 season in 2024, the 2025 team is benefiting from a last-place schedule and has a very favorable schedule moving forward. I am not dismissing them by any means, but they have very few tough challenges remaining on their schedule. They have also defeated the Bills and Bucs on the road this season, proving they’re very much a contender in the AFC.
As I mentioned, the Patriots’ upcoming schedule looks fairly easy on paper. They only have two games vs. teams with winning records, while the rest are either against their division rivals or 3rd or 4th place teams. If they continue to play well, they have a real shot at being the number one seed in the AFC.
Remaining Games: at Bengals, vs. Giants, BYE vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, and vs. Dolphins
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
The Colts dropped two spots since they are enjoying their BYE week, while both the Broncos and Patriots won their games this week. However, they are still a top team in the AFC and have a true MVP contender on their roster in running back Jonathan Taylor(but it’s a QB award).
Quarterback Daniel Jones has been great for the Colts this season and started off hot for them, but has cooled off a bit in recent weeks. We’ll see which Daniel Jones shows up for the Colts coming out of the BYE. With that said, they’ll go as far as Jonathan Taylor can carry them. He has been excellent this season, and we saw first-hand what he can do in week 2 when he had plenty of success against the Broncos’ defense.
Unlike the Patriots, the Colts have some tough games ahead of them. They come out of the BYE to face a desperate Chiefs team in Arrowhead, trying to keep their bleak postseason hopes alive. After that, they have back-to-back divisional games, a tough game in Seattle, host the Niners, and then finish the year with two more divisional games.
I think the odds are stacked against the Colts to get the number one seed, and with them having two games vs. both the Texans and Jaguars remaining, they may not even with the AFC South. We shall see how it shakes out for them.
Remaining Games: at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Jags, at Seattle, vs. Niners, vs. Jags, and at Texans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
The Steelers defeated the Bengals on Sunday to improve to 6-4 and kept control of the AFC North. However, Aaron Rodgers left the game due to a wrist injury and will get evaluated for it this week. If he were to miss an extended period of time, Mason Rudolph would get the start, which makes things rather murky for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
They are a tough team to figure out. Some weeks, they look really good, and other weeks, they play some bad football. Despite that, they are 6-4 and lead their division. Mike Tomlin always has his teams playing tough, and they figure to be at or above .500 at season’s end. They just need to hold off the fast-rising Ravens from leapfrogging them in the standings.
Looking ahead, the Steelers have some tough games coming up, especially if they are without Aaron Rodgers. The two big games that stand out to me are the two vs. the Ravens, which includes a week 18 season finale that may decide the division and which team makes the playoffs. I doubt we see two teams come out of the AFC North this year so the Steelers and Ravens are likely fighting for one spot in the playoffs.
Remaining Games: at Bears, vs. Bills, at Ravens, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, and vs. Ravens
Wildcard Teams
5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
The Bills were coming off a brutal loss to the Dolphins, which saw them lose ground to the Patriots in the division. They looked to bounce back this Sunday vs. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, and they did just that. While it was close for most of the game, they pulled away at the end and remain firmly in the postseason conversation.
This team will go as far as quarterback Josh Allen takes them. They lack playmakers on offense; they had Keon Coleman as a healthy scratch this week, and their defense has struggled a bit this season. Despite that, they are 7-3 and right behind the Patriots in their division.
They have a big game vs. the Patriots still on their schedule, along with a handful of other tough games that will be a tough test for them. I think due to the Patriots’ soft schedule, the odds of the Bills surpassing them are low, and they’ll settle for a wildcard spot, but you never know in the NFL.
Remaining Games: at Houston, at Pittsburgh, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, and vs. Jets
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Another team that can look like a legit Super Bowl contender one week and then get blown out the following week. That’s what happened here with the Chargers. Last week, they dominated the Steelers at home and followed that up by getting completely blown out by the Jaguars.
With the Broncos winning, they fell two games behind them in the loss column and will need to gain some ground on them if they want to win the AFC West. However, I think the injuries along their offensive line are starting to catch up to them. Justin Herbert is getting hit a lot, and they’re just a very inconsistent football team.
It might be my bias, but they seem like a team that could collapse in the second half and fall completely out of the playoffs.
As for their remaining games, it won’t be easy for them. They have their BYE this coming week and then after a game vs. the Raiders, they host the Eagles and then have back-to-back tough road games before finishing out the year in Denver vs. the Broncos. It will be a tough final month and a half for this banged-up Chargers football team.
Remaining Games: BYE, vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, and at Broncos
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
They are coming off a week where they blew a 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Texans, to absolutely blowing out the Chargers at home. The Jags are another inconsistent team that can look bad one week and then amazing the next week.
Head Coach Liam Coen has Trevor Lawrence playing well; they have a strong run game, and their defense has been pretty good at times this season. They also have a kicker who can make 70-yard field goals with ease. When all of these elements are playing well, they have proven they can contend with anyone.
They are also just two games back of the Colts, a team they play two times before the end of the season. So, while the Colts seem to have control of the AFC South, I would not rule out the Jags from making a run for the division crown.
Remaining Games: at Cardinals, at Titans, vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, and vs. Titans
The Rest
8. Houston Texans: They sit at .500 and despite being down quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans have managed to win back-to-back games without their starting QB. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and will need to lean on them if they want to make the playoffs. They might be too far out to challenge for the division, but they certainly have a shot at the wildcard if they string together some victories.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Who saw this coming? After losing to the Broncos, they fall to 5-5 on the year and are currently the 9th seed in the AFC. Their chances of winning the AFC West are very low now, and even the playoffs seem difficult at this point. They lost to the Chargers, Bills, and Jags this season, which means all three of those wildcard teams hold a tie-breaker over them. They have some tough games ahead on their schedule and cannot afford to lose many more games if they want to return to the postseason.
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5): After starting the year 1-5, the Ravens have won 4 straight games and are right on the heels of the Steelers for the AFC North division title. I think they’ll catch and surpass the Steelers before it’s all said and done, especially if Aaron Rodgers ends up missing games.
