We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated. Keith Law’s list is here. Ben Clemens’is here.
Number 4 on Ben Clemens list and number 10 on Keith Law’s is Michael King.
King declined a $28 million option for 2027, taking a $5 million buyout instead.
He had a nice 2026, with a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts,
with a 12-10 and a 4.3 bWAR (you don’t opt out of $28 million if you had a bad season). I bet you are thinking of checking your employment contract to see how much you would be paid if you quit.
King has been in the majors for eight seasons (well, one of those seasons totalled 2 innings), five with the Yankees, the last three with the Padres. In the last three years, he has a 3.15 ERA in 78 games, 77 starts with a 9.5 bWAR.
Among the things Law said:
He’s still a sinker/changeup guy, although in the last two months or so of the season he ramped up the use of a different slider, generating a 20 percent whiff rate on the pitch. It’s shorter, with more tilt to it and less vertical break, and having a better breaking-ball offering than his sweeper may actually mean he has a chance to be better in 2027 and beyond. I wrote last winter that the 2023-24 version of King was a $25 million a year pitcher. The Padres gave him that, and he delivered that and more. He’s a $30 million a year pitcher now, at least, and should get three years again at a higher AAV.
Ben:
Like Trevor Rogers ahead of him and Freddy Peralta behind him, King has a few blemishes that suitors will have to weigh against his bona fides. He posted career worsts in a number of process statistics this year – lowest swinging strike rate, lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate, highest xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. He withstood those headwinds thanks to a low BABIP and a high left on base percentage, but you probably shouldn’t count on that happening to the same extent again. That would make King more of a nice starter than an elite one, which is roughly what the projections say too. I rounded up from there because I value King’s steady presence and flexibility, and because the Padres under A.J. Preller have never been averse to paying up a bit to retain their own guys.
Ben figures he’ll get $25 million a year for four years, $100 million total, making it a little weird that he would turn down $28 million for next year, but let’s go with it anyway.
If your answer depends on whether he can shower enough to get rid of the Yankees smell, you are my kind of people.
