When a team that is 2 games below .500 is on a 3-game losing streak and facing two games against a pair of conference foes, each with a 5-2 record, there’s really no silver lining, and “must win” no longer has much meaning. It’s usually too late; the team is a dead man walking.
If you’re the type to look at the schedule and decide that there’s really no reason to play the next two games because the games against Seattle and Detroit are automatic losses, then you’ve already got the Commanders at 3-7
as they head off to Madrid in Week 11 to face Miami. You’re already thinking of draft picks in April.
On the other hand, if you’ve got a tattoo on your bicep that reads, “Any Given Sunday”, then you may be thinking about Jayden Daniels returning to play 3 home games and a neutral field game over the next 4 weeks and smiling inwardly at the opportunity that provides. You might also look at 4 NFC East games in 4 weeks to close out the season and think of what that could mean if the Commanders were to win all 4 of them.
I absolutely belong to the latter group. I enjoy football — the time spent playing games is too short and the offseason too long to give up on the second half of a season just because I didn’t love how the first half went. It seems wasteful to me. I’ve never understood the desire to move on from a season any sooner than absolutely necessary.
I approach the kickoff of every game with the same anticipation and blend of confidence and worry. I never think, “Here we go again!” if my team falls behind on the scoreboard early.
I remember how disappointed I was at the end of the first quarter of Super Bowl XXII, when the Redskins were trailing the Broncos 10-0. Of course, Washington scored 35 points in the second quarter behind an MVP performance by Doug Williams. “Comeback” was the definition of his career.
Three times since the 2012 season, Washington has made the playoffs after starting a season 3-5 or worse. In 2012, the Redskins won their final 7 games — including a victory over the AFC North Champion Ravens, who finished 10-6 — to finish with 10 wins and the NFC East crown. In 2015, after starting 3-5, the Redskins won 6 of their final 8 games, including going undefeated in the final 4 games of the season, to reach 9-7 and again take the division title.
The mountain that would need to be climbed this season looks a lot steeper. Three of the remaining 5 non-division opponents currently have records of 5-2 or 6-2. All three division opponents are playing better football in October than they were in September.
All that means is that the Commanders have to play better than they have played so far.
That has to start on Sunday night vs the visiting Seahawks, who are traveling east, but also coming off a bye. Washington, of course, has a short week after visiting Kansas City on Monday night, but there are no excuses left for the burgundy & gold. Playoff pressure is here, with each game increasingly having ‘win or go home’ consequences. Washington can still turn around its season, but to do so, the Commanders probably need to win at least 4 of their next 6 games, with at least 3 conference wins, to get back to .500 or better before playing the Eagles for the first time in Week 16.
That needs to start with a win against Seattle.
Offensive and defensive rankings
Seattle Defense
The Seahawks have the 10th-ranked defense in the NFL, but are the top rushing defense in the NFL, allowing just 76 rush yards per game at an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Obviously, they give up more in the passing game, where they rank 23rd, at 230 yards per game. When it comes to points per game, the Seahawks rank 7th at 19.4 points per game average.
Seattle Offense
Offensively, the Seahawks rank 11th by yardage per game, but 6th in points per game. They rank 8th in passing yardage, but 21st in rushing.
Opponents
Interestingly, Seattle and Washington have no common opponents thus far in the ‘25 season. The only opponents the two teams will have in common by the end of the season are the Vikings and Falcons — the other 2nd place teams from the NFC in 2024.
Looking at Seattle’s opponents broken down by wins & losses offers a fairly predictable result:
Seattle has beaten every sub-.500 team they have faced, and lost to every team with 5 or more wins in 2025.
Importantly, the Seahawks beat both 4-3 teams that they played — Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
To win Sunday night’s game in Landover, the Commanders are going to have to play like a 5- or 6-win team, something that they’ve really only done once this season, against the Chargers in Week 5.
In my mind, there are five keys to Washington claiming victory on Sunday night.
1. The Jay & Bill show
Jayden Daniels has started and finished only three games this season: Week 1 vs the Giants; Week 5 at the Chargers and Week 6 vs the Bears.
Jayden Daniels
Turnovers ruined an otherwise strong performance by JD5 against the Bears. He threw for 211 yards and a touchdown, adding 52 rushing yards.
In the wins against the Chargers and Giants, Jayden threw for a touchdown and over 230 yards in each game, rushing for 39 yards against the Chargers and 68 yards vs the Giants.
Bill Croskey-Merritt
Those three games have been the most productive of Bill Merritt’s short career.
- 111 yards, 2 TDs vs Chargers
- 82 yards, 1 TD vs Giants
- 61 yards vs Bears
Croskey-Merritt’s two fumbles came against LA and Chicago, with the latter contributing to the eventual loss to the Bears.
What does this mean?
While Seattle’s run defense is, statistically, the best in the league, the Seahawks haven’t really faced a litany of mobile quarterbacks. Kyler Murray averaged 8.2 yards on 5 attempts for the Cardinals, with Arizona’s two lead running backs averaging 4.3 ypc for the game. CJ Stroud earned 12.5 yards per carry on two runs for Houston, though neither of his two running backs could sustain consistent success.
It feels as if the opportunity exists for Daniels to gash the Seattle defense for substantial yardage on multiple QB scrambles, and for Bill to find some room on the kind of zone-read RPOs that JD5 has excelled at so far in his career. There are some who want to put Jayden in bubble wrap because of his two injuries already this season, but if he is on the field, there is no reason to take away his greatest powers as a player. Jayden is the Commanders biggest competitive advantage, but only if he’s allowed to play his brand of football.
Without Terry McLaurin to stretch the field vertically, the Commanders are going to need to find efficient ways to threaten the Seattle defense horizontally and put key defensive players in conflict. If they can do that frequently, then Jayden can use his outstanding real-time processing to exploit the small cracks that can be created in the defense.
2. Commanders need to win the turnover battle
While the Commanders have been inconsistent in producing turnovers, they have proven that they can generate them against good teams and good quarterbacks. Defensively, Washington’s two best turnover games of the season came against the Chargers in Week 5 and the Chiefs this past Monday night.
There seems to be an opportunity for the home team to step up on Sunday night and “produce the ball” as defensive coordinator Joe Whitt is so fond of saying.
The Seahawks have not excelled with respect to turnovers, with a differential of -4 in the 2025 season to date.
- The Seattle defense has generated 8 interceptions, but recovered no forced fumbles.
- Offensively, the Seahawks have been intercepted 5 times, but given away 7 fumbles; QB Sam Darnold has been responsible for 4 of the INTs and 3 of the fumbles.
The Commanders are -5 on the season, but Marcus Mariota has thrown 3 of the team’s 5 INTs and lost 1 fumble. While Daniels had a bad day vs Chicago, with 2 fumbles and his lone interception of the season, his only other turnover was on the fumble that occurred when he was injured on a tackle in the 3rd quarter of the loss to Dallas.
On offense, Jayden Daniels has typically been stingy about giving the ball away. The Bears took it away from the Commanders 3 times (leading to a disappointing loss by Washington) but Chicago leads the league in takeaways.
It feels as if Washington has the opportunity to protect the ball behind excellent QB play, while having chances to pry the ball loose from a Seahawks offense that doesn’t seem to hold on to it as tightly as they should.
3. The Washington defense has to play better
Washington’s defense looked very good for 30 minutes against the Chiefs on Monday night. If they can play at that level for 60 minutes against Seattle, then the Commanders have a chance for the upset win against the current leaders of the NFC West.
Here are some factors in favor of the Washington defense:
Home cooking
After playing 5 of the first 8 games on the road, Washington is back home on Sunday night (and for three of its next 4 games). That home crowd support should count for a lot.
Better offense
The defense needs help from the offense. Overall, Washington has converted just 38.6% of third-downs this season, though that figure has been 47.2% (which would rank 3rd in the NFL if it were a season-long rate) over the past three weeks. Related to this is the fact that the Commanders have the 3rd-lowest average time of possession in the NFL — though that, too, has improved over the past three games.
With the return of Jayden Daniels, the hope and expectation is that the offense, in mid-season form, should benefit from his mobility, his week of rest, and his coolness under pressure to improve dramatically with respect to 3rd down conversions and extended possessions. This should help the defense by (a) keeping Seattle’s offense off the field; and (b) scoring more points for the good guys.
Recent changes
Injuries and mistakes have forced DC Joe Whitt to adapt both scheme and personnel. We saw a lot more of young players like Jordan Magee and Tyler Owens on Monday night. Also, Frankie Luvu lined up a season-high 31 times as a stand-up OLB on the line of scrimmage.
The defense still surrendered 4 touchdowns, but a lot of that was driven by Patrick Mahomes producing on off-schedule extended plays in the 2nd half. Sam Darnold is unlikely to present the same challenge.
Also (and again), Washington’s defense played very well for 30 minutes. With more focus and more help from the offense, this younger, faster version of Washington’s D may be able to hold up for a full game this week.
4. Washington has to minimize penalties
Washington played its most penalty-free game of the season on Monday night after one of its worst against the Cowboys.
If the Commanders can maintain the kind of discipline they showed against Kansas City, that should be a big help.
Elimination of drive-wounding or drive-killing penalties by the Commanders offense, in particular, should help change the balance of the game, though a huge momentum swing came on a defensive penalty on Monday night — a hit on defenseless receiver by Quan Martin after the ball was on the ground on 2nd & 5 less than a minute into the 3rd quarter.
They shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the crew calling the game. Bill Vinovich’s crew typically throws about 12 flags per game on average, with about 5 going against the home team and 7 against the visitors.
5. Washington needs to have stellar special teams play
The Commanders have excelled on kickoffs and punts for most of the season compared to other NFL special teams units.
Against the Chiefs, Luke McCaffery and Jaylin Lane had kickoff returns of 37 yards and 30 yards, respectively, and Lane added a 14-yard punt return in the 2nd half.
The Chiefs ran back a pair of kickoffs, drawing a penalty flag (and resulting in poor field position) on each.
But Jaylin Lane also mis-handled a kickoff, muffing the ball and having it spin out of bounds at the 1-yard line, to give the Washington offense 99 yards of green grass to cover for a score. That kind of mistake has to be avoided; Washington’s special teams have to give Washington the field position advantage on every drive. It’s a key element of the offensive and defensive edges that the team will need to come out on top against Seattle on Sunday night.
I’m sure that the decision to use Lane on kickoff returns was, at least in part, driven by the desire to protect Deebo from unnecessary risk of injury, but, as mentioned above, it’s ‘do or die’ time with respect to the 2025 season. Either Jaylin Lane needs to be completely reliable on kickoffs or the coaches need to be ready to put Deebo back as the secondary return man on kickoffs.
The game
Washington hosts Seattle at 8:20 pm on Sunday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN. FanDuel currently has the Seahawks favored by 3 points, with an over/under mark of 47.5 points.
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