The baseball Winter Meetings begin this weekend, which means the chances of the Phillies actually doing something within this timeframe are more heightened than ever. This is the place where business usually happens at a pretty steady pace and the Phillies are no stranger to that. The Winter Meetings is where Trea Turner agreed to his hefty contract, as did Taijuan Walker of the same season.
This year, there is some business the Phillies need to take care of, so let’s rank some of the bigger rumors
that are floating around the team. Instead of thinking about it in terms of who is going where, let’s talk about the odds that one of these things happens while the team is in Florida for the meetings.
The Phillies re-sign Kyle Schwarber
Remember, we’re talking about during the meetings here and since they are at hand, one might think the odds of his getting re-signed this week are high. The team clearly wants to see what is going to happen with Schwarber before they move on to other business, but they also can’t simply wait the entire offseason for Schwarber to make a decision. We’ve seen enough rumors about teams’ interest in his services that it feels as though the endgame has been entered.
Still, it would behoove the player to keep as many teams involved as possible. The number of teams that would actually want to designate their DH spot to one player for the next 4-5 years is probably smaller than he would like and it would make sense for him to get other teams engaged. However, you’d think that by now, teams would know their plan and would communicate that plan to him pretty clearly.
Schwarber probably knows that the team most willing to give him the years and money he has been looking for is the Phillies. They want to get started on their offseason. This is probably going to happen.
Odds: 75% chance
The Phillies re-sign J.T. Realmuto
Another one that would make sense to happen sooner rather than later. Maybe the urgency for them to get Realmuto back into the fold isn’t as high as it is with Schwarber, the desire is still there. The lack of solid available free agent catching has been discussed already, which makes a trade of some kind the usual way for people to steer their thinking towards. However, think about it in this capacity: how many good starting catchers are there? A few, right? Having a solid catcher that can contribute behind the plate and at the plate is almost a luxury at this point, many teams settling for replacement level if they have to. So if a team has a prospect that is near ready to join the major league level, they would likely value that kind of player highly, even if we factor in the developmental curve catchers are on. That kind of trade may be quite lopsided if the Phillies were to try and pull one off.
That’s why the smartest thing is and will continue to be to just re-sign Realmuto. His reported desire for a two-year deal probably makes his market much wider than it would have been, so this negotiation might take some time. Still, there is something the team can get done, but they’ll probably wait on Schwarber first.
Odds: 40%
The Phillies make a major trade of some kind
Ah yes, the good ol’ fashioned trade that happens at the Winter Meetings. Gone are the days when GMs would meet at the bar at 1:30 am to hammer out a deal between two clubs, sloshing themselves with alcohol as they try to coherently remember the name of that one kid who threw hard down in Single-A. Instead, we have executives huddled together in a suite, scrambling to text a friend in another organization as they haggle over the value of Saul Teran’s spin in his slider.
The Phillies will probably make a deal during the Meetings. Dave Dombrowski loves to make trades and the Phillies have holes that could be filled. Yet what would classify as a “major” trade? Is that sending Alec Bohm somewhere to free up his expected $10 million? Is it a blockbuster brings in an impact pitcher along the lines of Tarik Skubal? That is probably in the eye of the beholder.
Odds of making a trade: 90%
Odds of if being a “major” trade: 45%
The Phillies sign a posted Japanese player
The thing about signing Japanese players is that they have a posting window of 45 days. They know when the players will sign. It will be as close to that 45 day deadline as possible for all the free agent reasons we have come to know and love. So if the team was interested in making Munetaka Murakami their new third baseman, they’re going to have to wait for that deadline to draw nearer.
Unless, there is someone who is dead set on joining the Phillies, breaking down that barrier that seems to exist for players coming to the city to play, the odds are as close to nil as we can get.
Odds: 0.1%
