This weekend (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 123. Did ever enjoy the title fights and general excellence of UFC 333? I hope so, because it’s time to drop expectations back to the floor! The main event will serve as a solid test of rising contender, Tom Nolan, by Brazilian veteran, Renato Moicano, but otherwise there aren’t a ton of standout bouts on the card. Hopefully, the recent trend of frequent finishes
continues here and at least provides another solid evening of highlight reel material between trick-or-treaters.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:
Welterweight: Jacobe Smith (-220) vs. Randy Brown (+185)Best Win for Smith? Niko Price For Brown? Nicholas Dalby
Current Streak: Smith is undefeated at 12-0 with four UFC wins, while Brown has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Brown has fought MUCH better competition
How these two match up: Complaining aside, this is an excellent 170-pound contest that came together on short notice.
Smith is an outstanding wrestler with remarkable athletic ability. The densely muscled All-American is capable of shocking explosions and suddenly violence, able to slam opponents through the canvas or melt them with seemingly innocuous ground strikes. He can be a little lackadaisical between those bursts, but the threat is always there.
This is a big step up for “Cobe.”
Brown has been there and done that, facing many tough opponents in his 22-fight UFC career. Though “Rude Boy” never quite managed to break into contention, he’s established himself as a tough out on the basis of his rangy boxing. He definitely has one of the division’s better jabs, which could come into play here.
I would love to predict a Randy Brown upset here. I don’t fully see Smith as a future contender — fighters with his style of overwhelming athleticism and no particularly cohesive MMA strategy tend to hit a wall when experienced opponents survive the early onslaught. Plus, he’s facing a significant height and reach disadvantage. The writing is on the wall for Brown to blind Smith with the jab, resist the wrestling, and leave him looking ordinary.
Unfortunately, I trust Brown even less. For all his slick head movement, he occasionally reacts with complete surprise (aka a non-reaction) when his opponents punch him in the face. He’s not an especially durable fighter and is now a bit long in the tooth.
If Brown escapes the first, I like his odds. Unfortunately, I think he gets got before then.
Prediction: Smith via knockout
Bantamweight: Yana Santos (+180) vs. Luana Santos (-235)Best Win for Santos? Macy Chiasson For Santos? Karol Rosa
Current Streak: Both women have won three straight
X-Factor: Luana Santos is a decade younger
How these two match up: In the interest of avoiding Santos vs. Santos confusion, I’ll be referring to these women by their first names for the rest of this prediction. Nevertheless: a rare collision of Top 10 fighters on an Apex card isn’t the worst thing, even if it’s in an uninspired division.
Yana, originally brought in as a quick sacrifice to Cyborg Santos, has achieved far more than most would have expected. A longtime Top 10 contender, Yana’s combination of physicality and grit have allowed her to outwork opponents and pull through as the underdog on several occasions. Luana, meanwhile, is one of very few rising talents in the division. The 26-year-old Brazilian is skilled in both jiu-jitsu and Judo, and she’s been able to take down and control most of her opponents.
I give this fight roughly 20 seconds before the duo land in the clinch. Ostensibly, that would favor the Judoka over the kickboxer, yet I’m not so certain. Most of Yana’s wins do not come off the strength of her range striking but in face from her clinch work, where she’s able to wear her opponents down with knees, elbows, and simple size.
The question is whether Yana can employ that strategy without getting tossed on her head and held down for long periods of time. Going against a decade of youth is always a risky endeavor, and yet I trust Yana to come on strong down the stretch. She tends to get rattled by big hitters, and that’s far from Luana’s strong suit.
Luana is able to take the first round off control time before Yana surges back in rounds two and three against a slowing opponent.
Prediction: Yana Santos via decision
Flyweight: Ode Osbourne (-130) vs. Cody Durden (-102)Best Win for Osbourne? Charles Johnson For Durden? Charles Johnson
Current Streak: Osbourne is winless in his last two, while Durden lost his last bout
X-Factor: Durden consistently fatigues and collapses
How these two match up: My God, the two least trustworthy (but still decently good) Flyweights on the roster are going head-to-head.
Osbourne is huge for the division and has a ton of power. He’s a sharp counter puncher who occasionally struggles to initiate, and though his first layer takedown defense is solid, he struggles when forced into deeper transitions. Durden, conversely, is a wrestler first and foremost. His inability to pace himself is a consistent problem, which is why Durden so often looks great in the first and then taps out in the second.
Fatigue makes cowards of us all.
I could see Osbourne sparking Durden right away, as “Custom Made” has taken a ton of damage in recent years and is going to run right at a big hitter. I could also see Durden outclassing Osbourne on the canvas and making him look woeful. I could see either man starting very strong and then collapsing for various reasons … assuming the other manages to actually take advantage.
Let me reiterate once more: this is a low-trust fight.
All of that said, Durden has fought (and very occasionally beaten) the better class of opponents. When he does lose, it’s usually because he dives into a submission, and Osbourne hasn’t tapped anybody out since 2019. Meanwhile, Osbourne loses often by getting wrestled, and that’s Durden’s bread and butter.
I’ll take the Georgia-native to survive some shaky moments and pin his foe to the canvas often enough to sway the judges.
Prediction: Durden via decision
Middleweight: Zachary Reese (-270) vs. Mickey Gall (+250)Best Win for Reese? Dusko Todorovic For Gall? George Sullivan
Current Streak: Reese has lost two in a row, while Gall has lost four straight
X-Factor: Gall is moving up to Middleweight
How these two match up: Please be a fun Middleweight meme fight and not an awful Middleweight clinch slog.
Somehow, this is Reese’s 10th UFC fight, a fact that shocks and demoralizes me. In his nine previous chances to make an impression, all that particularly stands out about Reese is that he’s tall, occasionally throws nasty left-side offense, and has no real defense to speak of. Gall, somehow, stretched beating CM Punk in a decade-long UFC career. How he did so without being remotely good is anyone’s guess, but at least the jiu-jitsu black belt has obvious ground skills.
Let’s not waste time overanalyzing slop: Reese should win here. He’s bigger and can throw a mean left hand down the middle. Gall doesn’t react to punches well, so unless that was an issue stemming from the weight cut, he’s probably going to catch one on the chin before he can try to employ his BJJ advantage.
More important, UFC can finally rebook Sedriques Dumas versus Gall after his defeat.
