It’s been 245 days since we last watched Missouri play in a football game.
We’ve only got five days left before we get to do it again.
A lot has changed in the landscape of College Football over the last 8 months. The NCAA moved forward on their 5 years to play 5 seasons rule, football budgets have exploded, and Missouri has a mostly new looking roster.
But such is life in the age of NIL and open transfers. The latest headache is players entering the transfer portal while in camp with NFL franchises
thanks to any number of different court cases and rulings. If you want the light at the end of the tunnel, I don’t think we’ll have to deal with this stuff en masse for much longer. After this year the rules on eligibility will be quite clear. At least we can hope.
Regardless this is the atmosphere with which Mizzou Football embarks on its 136th season of competition, the games begin soon. There will be games with players with helmets and pads on a 100 yard field. The stadiums will be full and the crowds will be cheering. Once the games kick off, we will spend a lot less time talking about court cases and a lot more time talking about football.
This is now my eighth season writing about the state of Mizzou’s football program, and the seventh in which Eli Drinkwitz’s been at the helm. Last season was a makeover after a tremendous two season run. This season feels different. A year ago the team was buoyed by a terrific defense and an awesome run game, but the Quarterback play held them back from being anything more than just solid. So Drinkwitz went out and signed the best Quarterback he could, but now turnover on the defense leads to the same questions heading into year 7.
Expectations outside the team facility may be different than inside. But they aren’t as different as we’ve seen. Which shows where the program has been moving over the years. The respect is there. Most outlets expect the Tigers to be pretty good. You have to hunt to find those who think the Tigers will stink. Those takes are out there, but they’re a lot fewer and further between than in years past.
Mizzou is expected to be good this season. The SEC Media poll tabbed the Tigers 10th in the SEC. While that doesn’t sound great, it’s better than you think. It’s one spot behind where the AP top 25 poll has them.
The AP voted Missouri 25th, but that’s 9th in the SEC. Only SEC Media voters had Florida ahead of Mizzou, with AP voters having Florida just behind the Tigers.
After years of building, and working to change expectations, Drinkwitz has done that. Mizzou is longer expected by others to simply dwell in the forgotten regions of the SEC standings.
But the job isn’t done. Mizzou is merely expected to be good in a league that should be great. They’re not expected to contend to win the league, or challenge to win the league. They aren’t even expected to be in the ever expanding playoff.
Even the godfather of RMN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings have Missouri is a good, but not great position.
There’s no doubt Drinkwitz has taken Missouri and made the program better. After two poor seasons, Mizzou improved his third year, and took off in year 4. But each of the last three years the finish has been top 25 worthy. The expectation for the floor has now been raised.
What will it take for Missouri to go take the next step? What does Drinkwitz and his staff need to accomplish in order to move Mizzou up the pecking order, permanently.
For one, they need to beat someone who is better than they are.
A common trope, or knock, against Drink is his inability to win a big game. He’s done the minimum by not losing to bad teams, you can read the full resume here since Nate already did the work. But a big part of program building is beating the teams below you consistently.
The next step for him has to be pulling off bigger upsets. Per Nate’s research Drink’s lone victory over an SP+ top 10 team came against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, and while Ohio State is a formidable win. Their quarterback situation for that game was a disaster and Mizzou took advantage. The QB is inarguably the most important position on the field.
So about Mizzou’s Quarterback this season…
Can Austin Simmons be the answer?
Simmons was the focus for Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin at the start of last season. But his inconsistency coupled with an injury allowed Trinidad Chambliss to take the job, and he ran with it.
Simmons pops when you watch him. But his decision making in the past has been suspect. In the opener last year against Georgia State he made some spectacular throws, but also threw two interceptions. Then in game 2 he threw no touchdowns but two INTs against Kentucky. The Ole Miss offense was high powered, but the 235 passing yards against UK were the second lowest on the season. The Rebels squeaked out the win thanks to a Kewan Lacy and the rushing attack.
To Simmons credit, he didn’t pout when he lost the job. He supported Chambliss, and when it was time to transfer his teammates supported him right back. Simmons was a leader.
Now he’s just got to put more of it together.
The arm talent is there. He’s got a good head on his shoulders. His teammates respond to him.
It all adds up to a star-making Quarterback. And if Simmons turns into a star, he’ll take Missouri with him.
Nobody knows
There are a million questions about this Missouri team. And right now nobody has the answers.
How good will the defense be?
Will the passing game be able to support the rushing attack enough?
Can special teams return to being special?
These are the broad questions, and there is a long list of more intricate questions I’m not going to ask.
But the state of the program is in a healthy enough place that we should expect Missouri to push well past the meager Vegas expectations, and at least meet the expectations of SP+ and the AP Poll.
The betting markets aren’t in love with Mizzou, maybe Vegas knows something we don’t. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Tigers championship odds at +10,000, which is 10th in the SEC. They’re +950 to make the College Football Quarterfinals which is 23rd in the country, and they’re +3,500 to win the SEC. And they’re +390 to win 9+ games which is 32nd in the country.
There’s a difference between Vegas and the early AP Poll and SP+ isn’t all that much. Missouri has a pretty brutal schedule. They play 9 SEC games this season and three of them are in the top 10 of SP+, they also play 11, 16, and 20. Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are the only SEC teams Mizzou plays outside of the top 20. That leaves 3 Non-Con games. Realistically if Mizzou wins all three non-con games, and takes care of UK, Arkansas and MSU, that gets them to just 6 wins. They may be only favored in one more game, the home game against Florida.
So you can understand the Vegas over/under on wins.
Drinkwitz has managed to elevate our own expectations, even if Vegas isn’t a buyer. We expect the over. 8 wins would feel about right to me.
RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See FanDuel Sportsbook for details.
