This weekend (Sat., Oct. 17, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, for UFC Edmonton. Though a step up from recent Apex events, the promotion continues to underwhelm in its ventures to “The Great White North.” Michael Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley is certainly an intriguing main event, and Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius in the co-main carries title implications as well. The rest of the card, however, is filled with Canadian
no-hopers and Wikipedia-less unknowns.
Set your expectations to mild … and let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Lightweight: Kyle Nelson (+250) vs. Christian Perez (-340)Best Win for Nelson? Matt Frevola For Perez? Logan Paxton
Current Streak: Nelson lost his last bout, while Perez debuts on a two-fight win streak
X-Factor: Potential Octagon jitters for Perez
How these two match up: This should be a fun striking match.
Nelson is an interesting fighter. The Canadian veteran has a very classic Muay Thai style that revolves around counter punching and a surprisingly adept lead leg. He may not be the most athletic Lightweight on the roster, but he’s able to slow down his opponents and force them into his style of distance striking battle often enough. Perez, conversely, is a fast-starter with a high finishing rate. He’s an accurate and rangy striker, but he’s also scored a handful of wins via tapout.
The 27-year-old prospect already has a wealth of experience, primarily in the Combate Global organization.
Generally, this feels like the kind of fight Nelson should win. Perez is not an overwhelming athletic force like Terrence McKinney. He shouldn’t be capable of just destroying Nelson in the opening exchange, nor is he likely to ground “The Monster” frequently. As a result, the odds of Nelson drawing him into a kickboxing match and out-pointing him feel high, particularly since we have seen Perez slow down in the past.
Prediction: Nelson via decision
Middleweight: Marc-Andre Barriault (+180) vs. Kyle Daukaus (-235)Best Win for Barriault? Eryk Anders For Daukaus? Michel Pereira
Current Streak: Barriault has lost two in a row, while Daukas lost his last bout
X-Factor: Barriault is long in the tooth
How these two match up: This matchup of Middleweight veterans comes at an interesting moment in their careers.
Barriault is clearly past his best. Quebec’s “Power Bar” was known for knockout power and an iron chin his entire career, and then he suffered consecutive knockout losses. He’s still gritty and comes to fight, but 29 professional bouts have taken their toll. Daukaus, conversely, returned to the UFC for a second stint with momentum. He really reignited his career with two quick finishes of Gerald Meerschaert and Michel Pereira … two men we must now sadly acknowledge are rather washed as well.
Bo Nickal then took him apart with ease at UFC White House, so it must be asked: is Daukaus actually better this second time around or was it merely fortuitous timing? A follow-up question: does it matter since Barriault is also in the twilight of his career?
Barriault pushing his way into the clinch, manhandling Daukaus, and knocking him out wouldn’t be a shocking outcome. Historically, it’s how he wins fights and how Daukaus loses them. However, it would be a real turn-back-the-clock moment for the Canadian, and I think Daukaus has the firepower to prevent such a rewind.
Prediction: Daukaus via decision
Bantamweight: Louis Jourdain (-210) vs. Timmy Cuamba (+162)Best Win for Jourdain? Danilo Adreani For Cuamba? Chang Ho Lee
Current Streak: Jourdain debuts having won four in a row, while Cuamba lost his last bout
X-Factor: Possible UFC jitters for Jourdain
How these two match up: This is a little Canada-first matchmaking, but I’m here for it.
Jourdain’s little brother looked like a standout talent on Contender Series, out-classing his opponent on the feet. His 9-3 professional record doesn’t jump off the page at first glance, but “The Mad Prince” hasn’t lost an mixed martial arts (MMA) fight since 2021, and he also took a brief foray into professional boxing. Cuamba, meanwhile, is an unheralded young fighter with a negative UFC record. Part of his struggle came from finding a home: he debuted at 155 pounds, fought twice at Featherweight, and will now make the walk for the third time as a Bantamweight. He’s primarily a boxer, but we’ve seen him spend more time as the nail than hammer inside the Octagon even on the feet.
Jourdain is the obvious pick here, a former professional boxer against an okay MMA boxer. He’s significantly slicker on the feet, appears to hit harder, and holds a major edge in volume. I don’t see anything in Cuamba’s game that would throw Jourdain off his rhythm, and so I think Jourdain joins UFC’s roster in style.
Second round club-and-sub — book it!
Prediction: Jourdain via submission
Lightweight: Mandel Nallo (-310) vs. Nate Landwehr (+230)Best Win for Nallo? Samuel Silva For Landwehr? Ludovit Klein
Current Streak: Nallo lost his last bout, while Landwehr has lost three straight
X-Factor: Landwehr is heading up to Lightweight in hopes of a career revival
How these two match up: This should be a firefight for however long it lasts.
“Mango” is still searching for his first UFC win. The Bellator veteran is very much a kill-or-be-killed fighter, a knockout artist who is not afraid to start fast or go out swinging. Landwehr fits into the same brawler mold, but he’s more of a gritty pressure fighter. He doesn’t rely on the early finish, as he’s happy to break down his opponent over time and win the battle of wills.
Look, I love Nate The Train. We ALL love Nate The Train. He’s an highly entertaining character who leaves his entire self in the Octagon every time.
Unfortunately, he’s looking pretty washed. At 38 years of age, he’s been in a lot of wars, and I’m not sure why moving up to Lightweight would fix the situation. A couple years ago, I would expect Landwehr to pick apart and outlast Nallo without much issue.
Nowadays, I fear the early blitz ends his night.
