The Los Angeles Clippers are “nearing a deal” to send Kawhi Leonard to the Toronto Raptors for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two first-round picks, one first-round pick swap and two second-rounders, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
That seems like a clear win not just for the Raptors, but the Sixers as well.
Thanks to the James Harden trade, the Sixers own the Clippers’ fully unprotected 2028 first-round pick along with a top-three-protected pick swap in 2029. Swapping out the oft-injured 35-year-old
Leonard for the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ingram might give the Clippers a higher floor, but they now have a much lower ceiling.
That’s where the NBA’s new draft-lottery system could help the Sixers.
Under the former system, the lottery included the 14 teams that wound up missing the playoffs, and only the first four picks were drawn via lottery. In other words, the team with the worst record in the league couldn’t fall below the No. 5 pick, the second-worst record couldn’t fall below the No. 6 pick, etc. The lottery teams with the worst records also had higher odds of winning the No. 1 pick than those with better records.
For tanking teams, that floor was almost as important as the ceiling. Under the new lottery system, that floor is now gone.
The new lottery will include 16 teams—the 10 teams that miss the play-in tournament, the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds in each conference, and the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games—and all 16 picks will be drawn via lottery. The new lottery flattened every team’s odds, too. The teams with the three worst records have only a 28 percent chance of landing a top-five pick and a 61 percent chance of getting a top-10 pick, while the other non-play-in teams have a 39 percent chance at a top-five pick and a 73 percent chance at a top-10 pick.
In other words, the new system introduced far more variance into the lottery. That should make for thrilling television, but it’s now impossible to predict where any team will land.
In the wake of the Leonard trade, the Clippers are left to build around Ingram, Darius Garland and No. 5 overall pick Keaton Wagler. Beyond that, it’s unclear what else they have up their sleeves for now.
The Clippers do still have Derrick Jones Jr., Brook Lopez and Kris Dunn, but all three are on expiring contracts. Beyond that, they have Isaiah Jackson and Cam Christie signed for two more years, while Yanic Konan Niederhauser has three years left on his rookie-scale deal.
In an increasingly cutthroat Western Conference, where does that roster leave them? More importantly, how many West teams can you confidently say would be worse than the Clippers in 2027-28 and 2028-29?
The Sacramento Kings, for sure. The Memphis Grizzlies, maybe. The Dallas Mavericks? The New Orleans Pelicans? Beyond that, it’s already unclear.
Until the NBA announces the results of the cap-circumvention investigation into the Clippers, the Sixers should cling to the Clippers’ unprotected 2028 first-round pick and the top-three-protected 2029 first-round swap unless they’re blown away by an offer. Perhaps the Clippers get off scot-free… but what if they don’t? The NBA has the right to take away multiple draft picks and/or suspend the Clippers’ front office executives.
If the Denver Nuggets are amenable to swapping Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid with those picks attached, that’s one thing. But short of Jokić, Luka Dončić or Victor Wembanyama becoming available, it’d be a tough sell to give up a fully unprotected pick of a team that could easily be in the lottery in 2028 and 2029.
At this point, it seems clear that the Sixers are mostly building with the Maxey-Edgecombe era in mind. Those Clippers picks could be the crown jewel of that effort. They should act accordingly with those, particularly with Leonard now set to leave L.A.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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