For much of last offseason, many Cubs fans were saying, “Trade Nico Hoerner and replace him with Matt Shaw!”, assuming the Cubs would then sign Alex Bregman or someone else to play third base.
Today I saw one BCB commenter say: “Trade Nico and replace him with James Triantos,” which is just silly.
As of this morning, here are the top six National League position players in baseball-reference WAR:
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 6.3 Juan Soto: 6.1 Shohei Ohtani: 6.1 Gerardo Perdomo: 6.1 Fernando Tatis Jr.: 5.7
Nico Hoerner: 5.7
That’s pretty good company. Nico ranks a bit lower by Fangraphs WAR: 13th at 4.0.
Still… why would anyone be gung-ho to trade a player like this?
Let’s look at Nico’s career. He was the Cubs’ No. 1 pick (24th overall) in 2018, and was sitting home after the Double-A season ended in 2019 when he got a call — the Cubs desperately needed a shortstop in September due to injuries.
Nico went 3-for-5 with four RBI in his first MLB game and went 10-for-24 with two home runs over his first six MLB games. Here’s his first MLB home run, hit against the Pirates Sept. 13, 2019 [VIDEO].
He held his own the rest of that year, posting 0.3 bWAR in only 20 games. Then he had a down year in the pandemic season of 2020 — many players did — and spent most of 2021 injured, playing in just 44 games.
Nico became the Cubs’ fulltime shortstop in 2022 and batted .281/.327/.410 with 10 home runs, good for 4.2 bWAR. The next year he moved over to second base when Dansby Swanson was signed, and the transition was seamless — he won his first Gold Glove and had a 5.5 bWAR season which was good for seventh among NL position players.
Here are 10 minutes worth of Nico defensive highlights from 2024:
Hoerner has continued that excellent defensive play this year and after a slow offensive start, he is batting .315/.367/.414 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases in 48 games since the All-Star break.
Speaking of stolen bases, Nico had two of them in Wednesday’s win in Atlanta. Here’s the first of those two steals [VIDEO].
Hoerner now has 26 steals for the season in 31 attempts, a success rate of 83.8 percent. With four more steals he’ll have 30 for the third straight season. Just two Cubs in franchise history have accomplished that — Ryne Sandberg (1985-87) and Kiki Cuyler (1928-30), both Hall of Famers.
I am not suggesting Nico Hoerner is a Hall of Famer, but he is certainly a talent that deserves to be kept a Cub, not traded to be replaced by a guy who might someday be that good. He’s also posted these last four good seasons at a relatively bargain salary rate. He’s under contract for one more year at $12 million, a very low figure for someone this good, a player likely finishing 2025 with 6+ bWAR and another Gold Glove.
Nico Hoerner is one of the best players in the league. The Cubs should extend him, not trade him.
