There are any number of ways to look at the effectiveness of an offense or defense. We have been alternating throughout the season on Thursdays to look at one unit or the other. Sometimes the numbers within the numbers reveal things that the overall numbers do not. For instance, when we look at the offense we see that it is succeeding in a number of ways. Obviously, we have looked at the lack of a run game over and over again, but when we look at the overall numbers we see something different.
Points
per game: 26.1 (9th) Total Yards per game: 356.5 (11th) Yards per play: 5.8 (8th) Turnovers: 4 (1st) Sacks: 16 (10th)
So, essentially the Texans are a top ten offense when you look at scoring, total yards, turnovers, and sacks allowed. They are only really deficient in terms of running the ball. However, there are some cracks in the veneer and they came to the forefront when Nick Caley appeared before reporters for his press conference during the bye week. He was asked about tendencies and it became very obvious that he was not aware of them. Self scouting is always the most important scouting.
This seems natural in baseball which has always been my first love. One player hits .300 and the other hits .250. Obviously there are numerous other numbers to come to the forefront, but in general you play the more effective player. This can be seen when we look at the pass catchers on the Texans. We can look at just catches, yards, and touchdowns, but we can also look at snaps, targets, catch percentage, yards per target, and success rate. In other words, who is getting the most playing time and who should be getting the most playing time. We will look at snaps on passing plays only since we are including tight ends and running backs.
No single number is the holy grail here. All of these numbers work together in concert. For instance, Tank Dell obviously has a lower catch percentage and success rate but he also has the highest yards per target. Obviously, he is valuable as a down the field threat and should probably be on the field as much as possible even given his low catch percentage and success rate. Those measurements don’t account for how much bang the Texans get for their buck and it doesn’t account for how his presence impacts the other receivers.
However, there is something glaring that many people have noticed outside of Kirby. Xavier Hutchinson leads the wide receivers in passing down snaps and targets. So, obviously Hutchinson should be the best receiver on the Texans. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t bare that out. He is fourth among wide receivers in catch percentage, fourth in yards per target, and fourth in success rate. I might be nuts, but I’m not seeing exactly what Hutchinson brings to the table.
This is the difference between looking at basic numbers and looking at the more advanced numbers. He is on pace to have 51 catches and over 600 yards receiving. He could have four or five touchdown catches at that pace. That feels like a pretty good season for a guy that is a second or third wide receiver. He is likely to be second on the team in catches at that pace. So, of course he is a solid wide receiver right?
Except Boutte is a better down the field threat as well and Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like he could be a better possession receiver once he gets acclimated. Not only that, but Hutchinson was getting more snaps than Jaylin Noel who had very similar numbers to Tank Dell before he went down. Obviously there is more to football than just numbers, but it seems logical that you would want the players on the field that are going to be the most successful the most often.
That has never been Xavier Hutchinson. Even when you go back to the last game you go back to Hutchinson leading the wide receiver group in snaps. That just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. We realize that Harrison is still adjusting, but Boutte has been here all season and he clearly is more effective. Moving forward you could justify Harrison as WR5 given the numbers, but you could also surmise that he will get better as he gets acclimated to the offense.
Moving forward Hutchinson should really be WR4 at the very best. Obviously, Dalton Schultz should be on the field as much as possible too as an underneath or intermediate target if you are going to go with Boutte and Dell as the other two wide receivers. A part of the art of running the most efficient offense possible is putting the best eleven guys on the field as much as possible. That means knowing what you have been doing and whether it has worked or not.
