The Philadelphia 76ers head into the NBA All-Star break at 30-24, good for sixth place in the Eastern Conference. On the surface, that’s perfectly fine, a modest overperformance relative to our preseason expectations. However, the team’s current two-game losing streak is a flashing warning sign for danger ahead.
Now, you might be thinking, ‘Two-game losing streak? Who on earth cares about that over the course of an 82-game season?“ And I hear you, particularly when Joel Embiid missed both games, the first
loss in Portland was the end of a long West Coast trip, and Wednesday’s home defeat in New York came as players might have been readying their plans for their time off over the break. But let’s look at what has gone down recently.
The Sixers traded Jared McCain at the trade deadline. (I’m not going to rehash whether or not it was a good trade in a vacuum, but McCain sure seems to be taking to Oklahoma City like a duck to water). They also shipped out Eric Gordon in order to help with further luxury tax machinations. Conversely, Philadelphia brought in exactly zero fresh faces at the deadline (aside from forward Patrick Baldwin on a 10-day deal and Dalen Terry on a two-way — two players who are not likely to help the current roster).
We were told the McCain trade was, in part, due to the “glut of guards” on the roster.
By my count, the Sixers now have three useable guards on the roster: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes. I know there are sometimes funny names for groups of things — i.e. a group of crows is a murder and a group of rhinos is a crash — but are three guards a glut? So Quentin Grimes comes down with an illness and suddenly the Sixers are down to two guards. I haven’t presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but I’m confident in saying having two guards available is insufficient.
Philadelphia’s stopgap solutions are playing 6-foot-8 forward and minimum signing Trendon Watford in a guard role, having 39-year-old Kyle Lowry, who is more coach than player at this point, log 18 minutes in a game, and giving significant rotation minutes to recent two-way signing MarJon Beauchamp. Beauchamp has played well enough, and I like the idea of leaving no stone unturned, but we’re talking about him as the third guard on a team that should realistically be fighting for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Now, you might counter, ‘Grimes is only sick and they’ll be fine when he’s available’. We’re now counting on perfect health across the roster? For the Philadelphia 76ers? Additionally, maybe Maxey shouldn’t be leading the league in minutes by a significant margin? Maybe the rookie Edgecombe shouldn’t be ninth on that minutes list?
McCain trade aside, I still can’t believe Daryl Morey brought in no one at the trade deadline. I know he targeted some guys and those avenues didn’t pan out, and he ultimately didn’t see any deals available for ‘needle movers’. But Jose Alvarado just torched the Sixers and he came to New York for a couple of second-round picks. Luke Kennard, who is literally the most accurate three-point shooter in NBA history, went to Los Angeles for one second-round pick six years from now. Would it have crippled the franchise for Morey to part with a couple of the team’s more than a dozen second-round picks to bring in somebody to actually help this team compete this season?
I know this team probably doesn’t meet his five percent chance of winning a title threshold, so Morey is thinking why reduce the asset chest by even a smidge in that scenario. But these players are taking the floor every night with one hand tied behind their backs. It has to be frustrating for them knowing management didn’t think it was worth acquiring a replacement-level wing or something. It’s certainly frustrating as someone watching from home.
