The 162-game season has a way of allowing us to see all of the best and worst, not only of the team as a whole, of each and every aspect of the team. We’ve seen the highs and the lows of the offense and the bullpen in particular. While the starting pitching, the defense and the baserunning will occasionally give us a one-off headache, those aspects of this team have generally been strengths of the team throughout. The offense and the bullpen? They’ve had very high highs and very low lows.
The Cubs
ended up winning Tuesday going away. But that game was close for a long time. When the bullpen took over, the game was very much in doubt. But, they gave the Cubs eight up and eight down. That continued right on to Wednesday. Jameson Taillon, coming off of his second IL stint of the year and without a rehab stint, departed after recording just 13 outs. At the time, he’d only allowed one run, but there were runners on first and third and with Matt Olson looming, the game was very much in the balance.
Taylor Rogers was the first of five Cub relievers. Those five relievers faced 15 Braves hitters and retired 14 of them, including four strikeouts. So over two days, Cub relievers faced 23 Brave hitters and retired 22 of them. The “right now” mentality that grips the modern world has everything feeling like every moment is massive. After having lost three straight games through Monday night, that Tuesday felt like a crucial game to hold the line. Cade Horton started the job. And the bullpen came in and slammed the door over the final two days. They carried on Cade’s work and helped get the Cubs out of Atlanta with a pair of wins.
The Cub offense had an up and down night Wednesday. They had 11 hits, one of them a double and another a homer. They drew three walks. They stole three bases. That’s a whole lot of offense. But they just couldn’t get over the top. 13 strikeouts certainly don’t help. But, in general, the Cubs just couldn’t blow this one out and so it ultimately fell into the hands of the bullpen to close this one out.
Fortunately, the bullpen got it done. The Cubs did get these two wins. It wasn’t beautiful top to bottom. But two wins. 83 wins total. This team has already matched its win total of each of the last two years. When this team wins its next game, it will be the most since 2019 when it won 84. It’s comical looking back at how different that team was than this team. That team had a seven-game winning streak and a nine-game losing streak. That team had a game in which they allowed 18 runs and also won where they scored 17 (this year has had one where they scored 18 and two where they allowed 14).
The march to the postseason continues.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 147, 34 BF
- Braves: 159, 40 BF
We see right away here that this game was tight. Both teams threw a lot of pitches. This number of pitches (16.33 per inning for the Cubs, 17.66 for the Braves) often looks more like a 6-5 game. Neither team was able to cash in on relatively ample opportunities. The real stand out difference is in the number of batters. The Cubs faced only seven over the minimum. They did benefit from a double play and a caught stealing. The Braves were a respectable 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position. On the other side, the Braves faced 13 batters over the minimum. The Cubs also had a caught stealing. But more importantly, they were just 1-10 with runners in scoring position. The Cubs were fortunate to win this game.
The Cubs did use five relievers. None threw more than 18 pitches. Heading into an off day Thursday, the Cubs should be well rested by the time they take the field on Friday against the Rays. After the Cubs had those three tough losses back to back and the injuries to Kyle Tucker and Daniel Palencia, it felt like the Cubs needed a turning point and these last two days feels like a good step in the right direction. A reminder of what this team can be when things are going right. You don’t want to overstate two wins against a team having a rough season, but at no point have the Braves taken their foot off of the accelerator and started looking to next year. Winning series on the road will never be something you can just blow off.
Three Stars:
- Carson Kelly had an early homer to tie the game up and added a single.
- Seiya Suzuki had a single, two walks and a sacrifice fly.
- Nico Hoerner had three singles, two stolen bases and a run scored.
Game 146, September 10: Cubs 3, Braves 2 (83-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Andrew Kittredge (.203). IP, 3 BF, K
- Hero: Brad Keller (.143). IP, 4 BF, H, K
- Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.109). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.123). 1-5
- Goat: Carlos Santana (-.115). 0-4
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.066). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s solo homer leading off the fourth, tying the game 1-1. (.124)
*Braves Play of the Game: Nacho Alvarez Jr. doubled with no outs in the third and a runner on second. That produced the first run of the game. (.103)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Cade Horton won 130 of 140 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon/Brad Keller +16
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Carson Kelly -20
- Dansby Swanson -21.33
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 7). Giants lose (Cubs up 9). The Giants need to win out to reach 90 wins. Reds win (the Reds can win 90 games max). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 8 with 16 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers lost (Cubs down 5.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
A nine-game trip for the Reds continues this weekend in Sacramento and then on through St. Louis next week before facing the Cubs Thursday through Sunday of next week. It’s a little bit of a long shot, but it sure would be nice if the Reds weren’t playing for a whole lot by the time they face the Cubs. Even though the Cubs have created a ton of space, the Padres and Mets haven’t provided the kind of knock out punch that would be required and that’s allowing the Reds and Giants to stay alive on the periphery.
Up Next: The second to last scheduled off day of the regular season for the Cubs. They’re going to need to catch their breath, because on the other side of it comes 10 straight games, including the final seven on the road in the Eastern time zone at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Next up is a Rays team that tried to conjure some late season magic. They’ve split the first two games of a series in Chicago against the White Sox and have a Thursday afternoon game. They’ve lost four of their last five after winning seven straight and their remote postseason hopes are on life support.
Matthew Boyd (12-8, 2.92, 166.1 IP) starts for the Cubs Friday. Last time out, he pitched pretty well against the Nationals, allowing two runs over seven. He did allow seven hits and three walks. But two over seven is getting it done. Period. He’s 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home. It would be nice to see him string two good starts together after a pretty rough August.
Shane Baz (9-11, 4.94, 155 IP) starts for the Rays. The 26-year-old was a first-round pick of the Pirates back in 2017 (12th overall). I was at his last start against Cleveland. In that one, he allowed five hits, a walk and two runs over five innings. He struck out eight. He’s a hard thrower but I was generally unimpressed watching him. He’s 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA over his last seven start (36 IP) and finishing very poorly. Beware though, he’s been much better on the road (3.59 vs 6.28). The innings are basically identical, so the results are strikingly different.
The Rays rely a fair bit on homers. If Wrigley plays big, I think the Cubs can maybe sweep this series against a team running on fumes. I don’t know if it is playing without a true home is the reason or what, but the team looks much less effective than they have in recent years.
