We are five days into the college basketball season, which means we have five days’ worth of data with which to analyze teams, players, coaches and the sport at large. It has largely been a solid few days for
the MAAC, which ranks over a point higher in conference net rating than it did last year. But breaking from that, what are some possible overreactions one can have from the first week? And are they even overreactions? Here’s a breakdown.
OVERREACTION #1: Siena is the best MAAC team since Rick Pitino’s Iona
The case: Each of the last two seasons, the MAAC’s highest-ranked KenPom team has ranked below 170th in the country. After two games, Siena has already risen from 208th to 148th. In those two games, the Saints’ net rating increase on KenPom of 4.38 points is the second highest in the country, behind only Mercyhurst. In fact, 148th is the highest that any MAAC team has ranked in KenPom at any point in a season since Rick Pitino left Iona for St. John’s.
Yes, the Saints were facing a Bryant team with a new coach and a whole new roster, and then a Brown team down Landon Lewis, AJ Lesburt, and David Rochester, but the performances have still been impressive.
It’s the different ways in which Siena has won the games that has stood out as well. Against Bryant, the Saints opened on a 14-2 run in the first five minutes and rode an efficient offensive performance. Gannon transfer Tasman Goodrick scored 22 points and grabbed 11 boards, while Justice Shoats conducted the orchestra with nine assists along with his 17 points.
On Friday in Providence, the story was the defense, holding Brown for over 10 minutes without a field goal in the second half. Gavin Doty was the only Saint in double figures, scoring 21. Shoats, Goodrick and Brendan Coyle combined for just 16.
Siena defeated both Bryant and Brown last year to open the season as well, and this Saints team was already at the top of my preseason power rankings, so taking care of business was after all, just the expectation. The team’s first major challenge awaits on Wednesday with a Franciscan Cup road trip to St. Bonaventure.
Verdict: I think Siena is really good, but the metrics probably overvalued both Bryant and Brown, thus overvaluing the Saints’ two wins.
OVERREACTION #2: Rider is the worst team in the MAAC
The case: This probably isn’t a crazy thing to say – after all, I had the Broncs 12th out of 13 in my preseason power rankings – but Rider subverted my modest expectations this far. In just two games, they’ve dropped 23 spots in KenPom’s rankings thanks to buy-game losses to Virginia and Rutgers.
I’m not expecting the Broncs to go out and beat those teams, or even play them close, but the games were non-competitive, and all of my concerns about Rider reared up. Schematically, Kevin Baggett emphasized in the MAAC Season Preview that he wanted to run more ball screens this year, but the Broncs’ offensive DNA looked similar, with lots of mid-range shots but also missed bunnies.
“We missed layups,” Baggett said. “Gotta make the layups, gotta make the free throws. We go through too many scoring droughts. Next thing you know, we get down pretty fast.”
Rider won’t win many games when Flash Burton and Zion Cruz are a combined 6-of-28 from the field and only get to the line twice. But on the flip side, none of the Broncs’ issues are problems that they haven’t overcome – to an extent – in the past.
During the nine game losing streak last season, Rider struggled to generate easy offense and didn’t have much consistency. The poor play looked a lot like it did on Wednesday, and there’s plenty of time for Baggett to get in the lab and help his team grow. The Broncs managed a 9-11 finish in the MAAC last year even with how ugly it appeared at times. If you can overreact and say that Rider is the worst team in the conference, you must also acknowledge that to an extent.
Rider wasn’t alone though, as Niagara and Canisius – the other two teams I had in the bottom three of my power rankings – also got blown out in buy games on Monday.
Verdict: The Broncs don’t look good, but we haven’t seen enough of Niagara and Canisius to make the determination that Rider is worse.
OVERREACTION #3: CJ Anthony is Iona’s best guard
The case: Dan Geriot told me in the preseason that CJ Anthony would be a “case study,” as he spent four years as a walk-on at Cincinnati before transferring to Iona. Because of the lack of in-game college experience, the walk-on label, and some of the bigger names Iona brought in, the point guard was mostly an afterthought in preseason evaluations of the Gaels.
He’s not an afterthought anymore.
Something tells me that Geriot knew how the case study was going to go when he told me that.
“He’s the heartbeat of our team,” Geriot said. “We did a little bit of data collecting throughout the summer and fall, and he’s the top guy in everything.”
Anthony scored 25 points on just six field goal attempts and dished out five assists in Iona’s win over Hofstra. He opened the scoring in the opening seconds and helped the Gaels build a 23-point first-half lead. While the Pride made the score respectable in the final frame, there was never much of a question as to who would win the game.
Rice transfer Denver Anglin and Colorado State transfer Keshawn Williams started alongside Anthony in the backcourt, but it was clear that Anthony was the head of the snake on Friday night.
Iona was one of the final teams in the country to open its season, waiting until the fifth night of action, but the wait was well worth it. The Gaels look to prove that opening night wasn’t a fluke on Tuesday in Kansas City before returning home to face Fordham and Princeton.
Verdict: I’m not sure if the performance on Friday night is sustainable — especially once free throw rates around the country begin to normalize — but Anthony is clearly significantly more important to this team than anybody gave him credit for in the preseason.
