The Kansas City Chiefs currently have two first-round selections (picks No. 9 and 29), but that doesn’t mean that’s when the organization will be making picks.
Draft night is a flurry of selections and trades, where teams swap picks to navigate draft boards and either move up to get a targeted choice or trade back to stockpile on picks or players later in the draft.
And while trading back is often the smart thing to do, trading up is a lot more fun when considering hypothetical situations. For this
exercise, we will limit our draft navigation to vertical moves only and resist the temptation to trade out of the first round to pick up an additional third-rounder.
Trading up is a tricky business in itself. A team wants to make sure it moves up high enough to get the right guy, but there’s a premium to pay for each selection jumped in that ascension. Front offices don’t want to pay the ransom to move up to the fourth-overall pick to get a guy who would have been there at six.
We are going to look at three possible trade-up scenarios for Kansas City, and list who we are trading up to select, calculate the cost of the trade, and then decide if the juice is worth the squeeze.
Methodology
We will use the 2026 Rich Hill Model to calculate the real-world cost to trade up and make the selection.
And then, we’ll use our dear friend and leader, John Dixon’s AV-based NFL draft pick value chart, to evaluate whether we’ve made a good investment in the player.
Scenario 1: trade up to pick No. 6 to select an edge rusher
What Kansas City gives up: Picks No. 9 and No. 74 (451 total pts)
What they get: Pick 6, to select Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. (446 total pts)
In this scenario, defensive studs flew off the board fast, with Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey being selected No. 2 by the New York Jets, followed by a trio of Ohio State players in linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese, and wide receiver Carnell Tate.
Sitting at the sixth spot, the Cleveland Browns‘ biggest need aside from quarterback is offensive tackle, and with the Washington Commanders and New Orleans Saints both being threats to take a pass rusher, the Chiefs’ hand is forced here to move up to fill arguably the biggest need on their roster with a guy who is arguably the biggest disruptor at his position in the draft.
Evaluation: According to Rich Hill, the Chiefs were only -5 in this trade, which is pretty equal for both sides. But John Dixon has the discrepancy a little more stark, with pick six (2696 pts) and pick nine (2530 pts). So when pick No. 74 is added in, the total draft capital given up of 3288 is a deficit of -592 in the wrong direction of Kansas City. That’s the equivalent of the 91st pick in the draft on John Dixon’s chart.
So the ultimate question is, do you think in the long run that Reuben Bain Jr. will be worth the value of the ninth pick and a pair of third-rounders?
If the answer is yes, then it was a good trade.
Verdict: I’m a big believer in Bain. I’d make the trade.
Scenario 2: trade up to pick No. 4 to select the best edge rusher
What Kansas City gives up: Pick 9 and pick 40 (536 total pts)
What they get: Pick 4, to select Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, pick 101, and pick 184 (532 total pts)
Similar to last time, the Ohio State linebackers went fast at picks two and three this time, leaving Kansas City with the opportunity to make a move to go up and secure the best pass rusher in the draft in Bailey.
But the asking price from the Tennessee Titans was steep, and the Chiefs were unwilling to give up more than two selections in this draft, which forced them to part ways with their second-round selection. The silver lining is that they received a couple of picks on Day 3 to play around with, balancing the value surrendered to move up.
Evaluation: Rich Hill has this as a pretty even trade on both sides once again, but this time around, John Dixon has the discrepancy slightly more even with the Chiefs giving up 3882 pts of value, and getting 3440 back in return, for a deficit of -440, which equates approximately to pick No. 112.
I know it may not sound like much, but the difference between losing a Day 3 pick in value and a Day 2 selection makes the trade a lot more palatable.
Verdict: Yes. I think Bailey is a unique pass-rush talent.
Scenario 3: trade up to pick No. 24 to select a stud safety
What Kansas City gives up: Pick 29, pick 109, pick 210 (240)
What they get: Pick 24, to select Toledo safety Emmanuel McNiel-Warren (237 total pts)
In this scenario, Reuben Bain Jr. slid to Kansas City at pick nine, and the organization was able to get the pass rush help it sorely needed without giving up any additional resources. That freed the franchise up to make a move later in the draft to fortify the safety position with a long, aggressive playmaker who would thrive in Kansas City.
Evaluation: This is our most even trade from a Rich Hill standpoint, with the Chiefs only being -3 in this scenario. The John Dixon model is kinder to Kansas City this time around as well, with the Chiefs only being -357 points.
The thing you can’t overevaluate is the positional importance of the safety in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme.
Verdict: Yes. McNeil-Warren has the upside to be an All-Pro someday.
What do you think?
Would you make these trades?
What trade would you like to see the Chiefs make?
