After the loss Saturday at UCLA, some fans are in panic mode. Some are suggesting that Coach Underwood will never win in the Big Ten and certainly not claim an NCAA title. That’s crazy talk.
The Fighting Illini basketball program is enjoying arguably its best season in almost 20 years. For the seventh consecutive season, the Illini have at least 20 wins. They currently sit second in the league at 22-6 overall and 13-4 in conference. They have ranked wins over national opponents Texas Tech, Tennessee,
Purdue, and Nebraska. Now in the interest of full disclosure, two of Illinois’ losses are to unranked teams (Wisconsin and UCLA), but they are Quad 1 losses. While it is not a big hit to the resume, it is still a hit!
What is a little more disconcerting is that three of the losses were in overtime, and two of those were to the unranked teams. Two weeks ago, hopes were high around Champaign, but now, after dropping 3 out of their last 5 games, concerns are growing. And with a HUGE game vs. Michigan coming up.
While Illinois is still eyeing a two-seed in the tourney, fans are now worrying that the Illini can be a one-and-done.
Here is my argument against that.
Let’s start with the numbers: (All updated through Saturday)
- 4th in KenPom (1st in Offense and 10th in strength of schedule.
- 4th in NET
- 10th in RPI, 7-5 in Quad 1 wins, which is better than 9 of the current 16 top 4-seeds, including Michigan State and Nebraska
But the question still remains: are they National Championship-caliber? According to Brent Stover from CBS, the Illini are his pick to win it all. He has a final four of Arizona, Iowa State, Nebraska, and Illinois, with Illinois beating Nebraska in the title game.
It is not just him. Andy Katz, after the loss to Michigan State, moved the Illini UP in his power 37 from #5 to #4!
Jay Bilas, even after the loss to Wisconsin, had the Illini at #6 and says they are every bit a Final Four contender and a National Title threat. After the loss to UCLA, he doubled down, saying the Illini have an unlimited ceiling. What makes these analysts and others so high on this team?
You have seen the credentials, now for the particulars.
Size and length
Illinois is the tallest team in college basketball across the board. But it is not just height; it is length. Many analysts say they play long, inside, outside, the top of the key. It’s not just the twins at 7-foot-1 and 7-foot-2, On the wings they are average with Ben Humrichous at 6-foot-9 and Jake Davis at 6-foot-6. But then you look at the perimeter: David Mirkovic, 6-foot-9, Andrej Stojakovic, 6-foot-7. Keaton Wagler, 6-foot-6, and to round out the rotation with Kylan Boswell at 6-foot-4.
It’s okay to have height, but what else do you have?
Big Z is a big-time rim protector with 61 blocks on the season.
On defense, besides Big Z down low, the Illini’s perimeter defense with Wagler and Boswell is relentless. And then there is the size issue again with Stojakovic and Mirkovic. It forces teams to constantly adjust.
Rebounding-wise, the Illini out-rebound opponents by an average of 10.4 boards per contest. It especially comes into play on the defensive end, where they have a 17.8 rebounding edge over opponents: 28 defensive rebounds vs. 10.2 offensive rebounds, limiting opponents’ second-chance points.
Shooting
Just about everyone on the team is a danger from three, Big guys, Tomi 34.8%, Big Z 32%. They can step out and are deadly with getting a three off the ball screen. Mirkovic is hitting at 39.4%, Humrichous 34.2%.
Davis cashes in from the wing at 41.3%, and then Wagler has a step-back move that paralyzes opponents, giving him separation to knock down threes at a 42.0% clip.
Weaponizing passing
The biggest strength the Illini have besides size is that they have turned passing into a weapon. Led by Wagler with 4.3 Assists per game; Boswell: 3.5 Assists per game. Just about everyone can handle the ball and pass to some degree. They average only 9.1 turnovers vs. 14.1 assists. All Illinois guards can penetrate and dish. They are one of the best teams at ball reversal and finding the open shot. Even the Bigs are accomplished at the high ball screen.
Do they have weak spots?
Every team does, and Illinois is no exception. At times, they do seem to get “3-point happy” and shoot too quickly and too often.
Fast-break, at times, when they get 3-point happy, they tend to give up fast breaks.
The TEST
This season has been a test for the Illini, with early-season illness and injuries. And just recently, when Boswell injured his arm. The players have bought into the next-man-up mantra. Someone almost always shows up and puts the team on their back.
When Illinois remains disciplined and plays its game, with rebounding, shooting, and a pace of play, they are hard to beat. They can score in a variety of ways. They rebound, play defense, and one of the most important aspects is that they don’t panic, and they don’t give up! That is the trait of a champion!
So what do you think?
