Belal Muhammad, welcome back to the Apex.
It’s been four years since “Remember The Name” has been booked to fight in The World’s Most Dangerous Warehouse, and a lot has happened since then. Back in that April 2022 headlining bout, Muhammad avenged a loss to Vicente Luque, then went on to defeat Sean Brady and Gilbert Burns to earn a shot against welterweight champion Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Muhammad dominated Edwards to claim the title, only to drop it in his first defense against Jack Della Maddalena.
And then he lost to Ian Machado Garry to suffer a second straight loss for the first time in his 30-fight career.
Now, at the Apex once more.
Muhammad’s precipitous fall could become a plunge into the darkest depths if he loses again in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 118 main event. In Gabriel Bonfim, Muhammad has a hungry young contender at his heels, just waiting to take that top 10 number next to his name. “Marretinha” has shown flashes of being a championship threat, but clearly has a long way to go before he’s a finished product. Regardless, all that matters is whether he’s evolved enough to impress against a seasoned veteran who was UFC champion just 13 months ago.
In other main card action, Brendan Allen faces Edmen Shahbazyan in a compelling—if strange—middleweight contender matchup, Fares Ziam looks to creep up the lightweight rankings when he takes on streaking prospect Tom Nolan, Bryce Mitchell faces short-notice replacement Santiago Luna in a bantamweight contest, and light heavyweight sluggers Iwo Baraniewski and Junior Tafa (also here on short notice) meet in a bout guaranteed to hit the under.
What: UFC Vegas 118
Where: Meta Apex in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 6. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Belal Muhammad (7) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (15)
Belal, buddy, what’s the game plan here?
Are we going to see him bust out the Canelo hands again (they weren’t bad!) or will we see the championship-level wrestling that neutralized Leon Edwards? Which is the best path to victory for Muhammad? And what does Gabriel Bonfim have to say about it?
As mentioned above, Muhammad has never lost three straight fights and for good reason. His rise to the top was defined by consistency and he routinely found ways to exploit his opponents weaknesses’ and break (or at the very least, frustrate) them. That won’t be so easy against Bonfim, who has also found success with a well-rounded skill set.
Bonfim will welcome a grappling attack if that’s the path Muhammad takes. He’s shown solid striking when he’s had to, but his bread-and-butter is still his slick submission game. I question how effective he can be off of his back, even if he’s confident he can punish Muhammad from that position. Even with five rounds to work, getting stuck on bottom position with Muhammad racking up points seems suboptimal.
As usual, I’m probably the last person to realize when it’s time to leap off the bandwagon, but I can’t give up on Muhammad just yet. His experience and cardio will be the difference here as he takes a competitive decision.
Pick: Muhammad
Brendan Allen (7) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Once again, it’s time to play “Is Edmen Shahbazyan For Real?”
Based on his past few fights, Shahbazyan has unquestionably shored up one of his greatest weaknesses: his takedown defense. Shahbazyan seemed cursed to join the long list of dynamic strikers unable to deal with elite grappling and while that may still prove to be his undoing as he rises up the ranks, he deserves credit for his improvement.
Brendan Allen is exactly the kind of opponent to test how far Shahbazyan has come. He’s as aggressive as anyone at 185 pounds and, yes, he will put Shahbazyan’s grappling skills to the test. As wild as Allen can be, he knows better than to stand at distance just waiting for Shahbazyan to land a knockout blow. When the opportunity to shoot opens up, Allen will dive for those legs.
I fully expect the Shahbazyan hype train to hit another snag Saturday. Fun to watch, and someone who will be dangerous for years to come, he’s just not at Allen’s level yet. Allen via ground-and-pound in Round 2.
Pick: Allen
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan
At the risk of asking too many questions, could these ginormous 155ers not have just fought at welterweight? I know that’s not how MMA works, but it will always be hilarious to see two big dudes cut weight just to end up having no size advantage (or disadvantage, I guess) on fight night. The Prisoner’s Dilemma remains a constant.
Tom Nolan is a live dog here. He’s the rare lightweight that’s taller than Fares Ziam and he has the kind of creativity that could throw Ziam off of his game without the right training partners in camp. Nolan’s jab is also a developing weapon and he’ll confidently put his distance striking up against Ziam’s, even if that might not be the best idea.
If you’re Ziam’s team, you should be pushing for him to be first because Nolan has a lot of holes defensively. It’s not unfixable, but this might be the right time for a more experienced fighter like Ziam to impose his will on the matchup and take away Nolan’s options.
Even though I find the odds to be a little too wide (Ziam is around a 3-to-1 favorite on FanDuel), I still believe in Ziam as a dark horse title contender and I’m picking him to score a knockout win.
Pick: Ziam
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna knows an opportunity when he sees one. Stepping in on just nine days’ notice for an injured Victor Henry, Luna could pick up the biggest win of his young career if he upsets Bryce Mitchell. At 21, the sky is the limit for the Mexican prospect.
He’ll have to overcome a ferocious wrestling attack from Mitchell, who has grounded some tough fighters at 145 pounds and has even more of a physicality advantage at 135. Mitchell has to be thinking takedown, takedown, takedown, because Luna will smoke him on the feet. Luna goes in there to throw punches in bunches and as tough as Mitchell is, even he shouldn’t game plan to get pieced up for 15 minutes.
Factor in a rough-looking weigh-in for Mitchell, and it’s understandable why Luna is a trendy pick this week. I’m playing it safe though and assuming Mitchell can outwrestle him en route to a decision win and a learning lesson for Luna.
Pick: Mitchell
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa
Yeah, this one isn’t going to take long.
Iwo Baraniewski is plenty raw and so far has relied on brute force as much as technique to get his wins, but it’s hard to argue with the results: Eight pro bouts, eight first-round finishes. Frankly, if someone is going to expose Baraniewski in this early stage of his career, it won’t be Junior Tafa.
Like Luna, Tafa is also stepping in on short notice and he’s fighting for the second time in 15 days. He just righted the ship with a first-round knockout of Kevin Christian in front of a friendly Australian crowd, and now he risks losing all of his momentum by taking on a red hot prospect with little prep time. Seems unwise.
The brutish Baraniewski barrels into Tafa and batters him for another big win.
Pick: Baraniewski
Preliminaries
Alessandro Costa def. Matt Schnell
Marcus McGhee def. John Yannis
Bruno Silva def. Edgar Chairez
Priscila Cachoeira def. Chelsea Chandler
Joanderson Brito def. Jordan Leavitt
Jeisla Chaves def. Yuneisy Duben
Ketlen Souza def. Ariane Carnelossi
