This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.
For Part 3, we move into the modern Colts era and one of the first major quarterback pivots after Andrew Luck’s retirement.
Philip Rivers only spent one season
in Indianapolis, but it was a successful one. The Colts went 11-5 in 2020, made the playoffs, and pushed a very good Buffalo Bills team in the wild-card round. Rivers was not the quarterback he had been in his prime with the Chargers, but he was still effective. He could still read defenses, control the offense, get the ball out quickly and keep the Colts offense humming.
Then he retired, but there were quotes and interviews that made it seem he would’ve stayed for another season had he been offered by Indianapolis.
That decision pushed the Colts into the Carson Wentz trade, and everything changed from there. Indianapolis gave up a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 pick that became a first-rounder because Wentz played enough snaps. The trade was supposed to stabilize the quarterback position and reunite Wentz with Frank Reich, the coach who had helped him play the best football of his career in Philadelphia.
Instead, it became a one-year waste. The Colts missed the playoffs, collapsing in Jacksonville, moved on from Wentz immediately, and lost premium draft capital in the process. So the question is simple: what if Rivers came back for one more year?
The answer is not that Rivers would have solved the Colts’ long-term quarterback problem. He was too old for that. The better answer is that he probably would have given the Colts a cleaner 2021 season, saved them from the Wentz trade, and left the organization with far more flexibility to find the next quarterback.
Rivers was limited, but still effective
By the time Rivers got to Indianapolis, everyone knew what he was and what he was not.
He was not going to beat teams with mobility. He was not going to consistently drive the ball outside the numbers with the same arm strength he had earlier in his career. The deep passing game was limited, and there were certain throws that just were not as available anymore. Against the best teams, that always put some kind of ceiling on the offense.
That said, Rivers still knew how to play quarterback at a high level. Heck, he even proved it this year after a long retirement and no arm strength.
His ability to read defenses was invaluable. He understood where pressure was coming from, knew how to get the offense into the right looks, and rarely looked overwhelmed by the moment. He also fit what Frank Reich wanted to do. The Colts had a strong offensive line, a good run game, reliable targets, and a defense that was capable of keeping them in games. They did not need Rivers to be Superman. They needed him to be sharp, decisive and steady and for the most part, he was exactly that.
His lone season in Indianapolis was not perfect, but it was good enough to believe he could have played one more year. The arm limitations were obvious, yet the brain still worked. For a team built around structure, protection, timing and a strong running game, that mattered more than raw physical upside.
The 2021 Colts needed stability, not chaos
This is where the Rivers-Wentz contrast becomes important.
Wentz had more physical talent than Rivers at that point. He could move better, extend plays, make throws off platform and create outside of structure. There were moments in 2021 when that ability helped the Colts. He did have stretches where he played good football, and it would be unfair to pretend every part of the season was terrible.
The problem was that the Colts did not need a roller-coaster quarterback.
The 2021 roster had Jonathan Taylor playing like the best running back in football. Michael Pittman Jr. was breaking out as a legitimate top target. The offensive line, when healthy, still had strong pieces. The defense created turnovers and gave the team enough chances to win. Indianapolis did not need a quarterback who could make one incredible play and then follow it with a panic decision. It needed someone who could stay on schedule, protect the ball, manage the game and let the rest of the roster work and that’s exactly who Rivers was.
The Colts were not asking their quarterback to carry a weak roster. They were asking him to keep a good roster from beating itself. That is why Rivers returning makes so much sense in hindsight. He was not the long-term answer, but for that specific 2021 team, he was probably the better answer.
The Jacksonville collapse probably never becomes the final doorway
The easiest version of this argument is that Rivers would have played better than Wentz in Jacksonville. That is probably true, but it is not even the biggest point.
The bigger point is that with Rivers, the Colts may not have needed that game in the first place.
The 2021 Colts finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs after losing their final two games. The final loss to Jacksonville is the one everyone remembers because it was embarrassing, decisive and completely unforgivable. The Colts needed to beat the worst team in the league to make the playoffs, and instead they looked unprepared, tight and completely lost.
Wentz was not the only reason they lost. The offensive line struggled. The defense did not do enough. The entire team played poorly. That loss was a collective collapse.
However, it is hard to imagine a Rivers-led offense looking that disjointed with the season on the line. His experience, pre-snap control and ability to avoid panic would have given the Colts a better chance if it came down to that game. On top of that, his veteran leadership would’ve proven to be especially valuable in those games. Moreover, the Colts probably would have been less likely to enter Week 18 in that position at all.
With Rivers and another year of continuity in Reich’s offense, Indianapolis likely steals at least one more win earlier in the season. Maybe the start is smoother or maybe one of the close losses flips. Maybe the offense is less volatile or maybe the quarterback does not create the same late-season tension.
The 2020 Colts were a playoff team with Rivers. The 2021 Colts should have been a playoff team even with Wentz. It is not a stretch to say the Rivers version probably gets there, and possibly gets there without needing a final-week rescue in Jacksonville.
Saving the Wentz picks changes everything
The football part matters, but the draft capital might matter even more.
The Wentz trade cost the Colts a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 pick that became a first-rounder because Wentz played 75 percent of the offensive snaps. That first-round pick ended up being No. 16 overall.
That is a massive price for one season of quarterback play, especially when the quarterback is gone immediately after.
Keeping Rivers means the Colts keep those picks. That changes the entire team-building picture. They keep their 2021 third-rounder and they keep their 2022 first-rounder. They avoid spending premium assets on a quarterback who becomes a one-year rental. They also avoid the awkward cleanup that came after the Wentz season, when the organization had to admit the move failed and start over again.
The most interesting possibility is the 2021 draft. If Rivers returns as a one-year bridge, the Colts could have used their draft capital to move up for a young quarterback like Justin Fields or Mac Jones. That does not mean they definitely would have done it. Chris Ballard had not shown much appetite for that kind of aggressive quarterback move, and trading up would have required conviction.
Still, Rivers returning would have created the cleanest possible setup. The Colts could have kept a veteran starter in place, drafted a young quarterback, and let that player develop for a season instead of forcing him onto the field right away. That is how teams should want to handle a young quarterback when they can (cough cough Anthony Richardson cough cough).
Would Fields have worked in Indianapolis? Maybe, maybe not. Would Jones have been a long-term answer? That is also debatable. The point is not that either player definitely saves the franchise; The point is that the Colts would have had options and the Wentz trade took those options away.
Instead of using draft capital to either select a quarterback or strengthen the roster, Indianapolis spent it on a short-term gamble that did not work. That is the part that makes the move so damaging. It did not just fail for one season; It limited what the Colts could do after it failed.
Rivers was the bridge the Colts wanted Wentz to be
The more you look at it, the more obvious this becomes.
Wentz was treated like a bridge with upside, but the cost made that plan dangerous from the beginning. You do not give up a first-round pick and a third-round pick for a bridge unless that bridge becomes the long-term answer. Once Wentz did not become that, the trade became almost impossible to defend.
Rivers, meanwhile, was the proper bridge.
He already knew Reich. He already knew the offense. The locker room respected him. He did not require a trade package. He did not need to be sold as the future. Everyone would have understood the arrangement. One more year, one more run with a playoff-caliber roster, and more time for the front office to figure out what came next.
It also would have removed the emotional attachment that came with Wentz. Reich believed in him because of their history together in Philadelphia, and that belief became part of the problem. The Colts were not just evaluating a quarterback. They were trying to revive a quarterback. They were betting on the old version coming back.
With Rivers, there was no illusion. He was old. He was limited. He was temporary, but that was fine, because temporary stability would have been better than expensive volatility.
The long-term quarterback problem still remains
This is where the what-if needs to stay honest.
Rivers returning does not magically solve the Colts’ quarterback problem. Unless Indianapolis drafts Fields, Jones or another young quarterback in 2021, the team is still looking for a starter in 2022. That part is unavoidable.
The 2022 quarterback draft did not offer much. The veteran market was not loaded with clean answers either. If Rivers retires after the 2021 season, the Colts are still searching. Maybe they end up chasing another veteran. Maybe they still make a trade. Maybe they eventually land in a similar place, cycling through short-term options while trying to keep the roster competitive.
So this alternate path does not create a perfect future. It does not guarantee the Colts find their franchise quarterback and it does not guarantee Ballard and Reich suddenly figure out the position.
What it does is give them a better chance. They would be searching with more draft capital, less roster damage and no Wentz scar tissue. They would not be trying to recover from a failed trade that cost them a first-round pick. They would not have the same public collapse in Jacksonville hanging over the organization. They would not be forced into another reset quite as quickly.
Sometimes a what-if does not need to solve everything to still be clearly better. Keeping Rivers is one of those cases.
Reich probably survives cleaner, while Ballard somehow survives either way
The coaching and front-office impact is also interesting.
If Rivers comes back and the Colts make the playoffs in 2021, Reich’s standing is much stronger. The Wentz collapse hurt him badly because he was tied so closely to that move. He believed in Wentz and he pushed for him. He was supposed to be the coach who could fix him. When it failed, it damaged Reich’s credibility and accelerated the decline of his time in Indianapolis.
A second straight playoff season with Rivers would have changed that. Reich would still have questions to answer, especially about the long-term quarterback plan, but the organization would feel more stable. He would not be carrying the same stain from the Wentz experiment.
Ballard is a little different because, at this point, he seems capable of surviving a nuclear strike to his front porch. The man has outlasted quarterback misses, roster holes, coaching changes and years of mediocrity. Even so, avoiding the Wentz trade would remove one of the biggest mistakes from his resumé.
That alone changes how people view this era. The Ballard-Reich partnership may still run into trouble eventually because the quarterback problem does not disappear. However, it probably does not spiral as quickly. There is no Wentz trade. No lost first-round pick. No immediate divorce after one year. No Jacksonville disaster defining the end of the season.
The ceiling is still limited
It is also worth remembering that Rivers returning would not have made the Colts a Super Bowl favorite.
His limitations were real as mentioned earlier. The offense would still have needed to be efficient, balanced and protected. Against the best AFC teams, the Colts may still have lacked the explosive quarterback play needed to win multiple playoff games.
The 2021 Colts with Rivers are probably a playoff team. They may even be a dangerous one because Taylor was playing at such a high level and the defense could force turnovers. Yet it is hard to say they would have been on the same tier as the true AFC heavyweights.
Rivers would have raised the floor more than the ceiling.
For that team, though, that would have been enough. The Colts did not need to become unstoppable. They needed to stop wasting a roster that was good enough to play in January.
The final verdict
If Philip Rivers returned for one more season, the Colts are almost certainly better off.
They probably make the playoffs in 2021. They probably avoid the final-week disaster in Jacksonville, or at least enter that game with less pressure. They keep their 2021 third-round pick and their 2022 first-round pick. They avoid the Carson Wentz trade, avoid the one-year cleanup, and give themselves more flexibility to draft or develop a young quarterback.
That does not mean everything gets fixed.
Rivers was not a long-term answer. The Colts still would have needed a quarterback plan beyond 2021. If they did not use the saved draft capital to move up for someone like Justin Fields or Mac Jones, they probably enter 2022 searching again.
Still, the Rivers path was clearly better than the Wentz path.
Wentz gave the Colts one uneven season, one embarrassing collapse, and a lost first-round pick. Rivers could have given them stability, continuity, a likely playoff appearance and a cleaner bridge to whatever came next.
He would not have solved everything, but he probably would have saved the Colts from the mistake that pushed the Ballard-Reich era into a downward spiral.
