NY Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury game 3 preview: Win or go home

The first round of the WNBA playoffs concludes as the Liberty are fighting to keep their championship reign alive.

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

The dream might end here. The New York Liberty had a chance to move on to the semifinals, but put forth their worst performance in years as the Phoenix Mercury cruised to a record setting victory on Wednesday night at Barclays Center. It was their worst home loss in years and if things don’t break right in the playoffs and in WNBA CBA negotiations, might be the last playoff game we see at the ‘clays for a good long while.

Where to follow the game

ESPN2 on TV. Disney Plus on streaming. Tip after 9 PM.

Injuries

Breanna Stewart has a sprained

left MCL, but she’ll be out there. Everyone else on both teams is good to go. Win or go home.

The game

How do you bounce back from a disastrously bad loss? That’s the question Sandy Brondello and the Liberty have spent the past few days trying to figure out. It will start with how they defend inverted pick and rolls. In game one, Phoenix ran it a bunch with Alyssa Thomas, but the Liberty eventually got successful in defending it. In game two, Nate Tibbetts flipped the switch and ran it with Satou Sabally to TREMENDOUS success

View Link

In an instance like this, I wonder if the Liberty can work to avoid switching there. They have the size to stick to the Mercury wing players and having Sabrina Ionescu constantly having to battle it out on the inside like that makes things more difficult.

speaking of things being difficult for Ionescu, the team is going to need a lot more from her this evening. Sabrina never got in gear, and you could tell things were off when she missed her first four free throw attempts of the game. I can’t recall something like that happening to her before and it was a bad omen for what turned out to be a frustrating night. In the first quarter, she was finding her way into the painted area, and that’s when she’s most effective. When New York gets downhill juice, they become even more challenging to defend and allows them to control the flow of the game. As pointed out by Stephen Trinkwald

Need to trade those threes in for attempts in the painted area.

Breanna Stewart is less than full strength, but the Liberty are going to need every bit of energy she has. In postgame, she mentioned that she was moving as well as could be expected and that the knee feels pretty good. The first day dealing with an injury is always the toughest, and if she’s able to find enough comfort in her game, it can help propel the Liberty into Minnesota and a rematch with the Lynx.

Player to watch: Alyssa Thomas

The greats always bounce back after rough outings, and AT did her best to erase the sting of Game one. Thomas did a little bit of everything as she had 15/6/7/1 in only 25 minutes of work. As Liberty fans know well from the 2023 playoff series against the Connecticut Sun, AT is more than capable of pitching a complete game if the moment calls for it. Her ability to force the issue and get the defense second guessing itself makes her one of the most challenging forwards to defend in the game and the Liberty will have to press various buttons to keep her in check.

With Stewart at less than full strength, the team should lean on Jonquel Jones more. JJ has a lot on her shoulders and when the team has needed her, she’s delivered. In postgame, she mentioned that the Mercury had them congested and made things really hard on them. JJ also mentioned that the team needs to be more confident in their three point shooting to combat this Phoenix ball club. There have been so many moments where the Liberty haven’t done enough to get Jones the ball, and they’ve got to get that right before their repeat dreams go up in smoke.