Rise up this morning, smiled with the rising sun
Three little birds pitch by my doorstep
Singing sweet songs of melodies pure and true
Saying, “This is my message to you-ou-ou”
Full disclosure: I am a happy clapper. And what you’re going to read is about the happy-clappingest happy clapping you’ll ever see.
I’m writing this to explain to everyone why we shouldn’t be panicking about Sunderland being in the bottom three with only four points from six matches – while I try my damnedest not to panic about Sunderland being in the bottom three with only four points from six matches,
and try not to read too much into how we played against Torreense on Thursday.
It’s therapy. Bear with me.
First, let’s do a Rorschach test.
Which of these was a Sunderland win?
If you guessed the right, you’d be right. Those are the numbers for Sunderland’s 3-0 season-opening win against West Ham last season. The left are the numbers from Saturday’s loss at Brighton.
I’m not going to pretend Sunderland played well against the Seagulls, but I think it wasn’t as bad as it looked. The toothless final half hour left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, but while Sunderland may not have played phenomenal football, up to the opening goal/red card combo, the Black Cats were at worst playing the league’s third-place team evenly.
And this was a Brighton team coming off a 3-0 win over the defending champions, with counting and underlying numbers – first in goals and goals allowed, second in possession and xG – to back up its place in the table.
Speaking of the top of the table, the schedule has been ruthless. After starting with currently 10th-place Ipswich and 20th-place Fulham, the last four matches have been against the top four in the league – Brentford, Arsenal, Manchester City and Brighton.
After six matches last season, our foes were the bottom five teams in the League – West Ham (19th), Burnley (18th), Wolves (20th), Aston Villa (16th) and Nottingham Forest (17th) – and 13th-place Brentford. They said we hadn’t played anyone, and at that point, they weren’t wrong.
The fixtures themselves also paint a relatively positive picture. In last season’s equivalent matchups – Brighton home, Man City away, Arsenal home, Brentford away, Fulham home and Burnley (Championship second place) away – the Black Cats picked up just one point.
Overall, the underlying numbers are strong. The xG is 1.69 and xG against is 1.09, good for sixth and 12th in the league and both better than last season’s end-of-year numbers. Possession (50.8% vs. 45.13%), field tilt or final-third possession percentage (50.69% vs 41.67%) and expected threat (1.62 vs. 1.18) – chance creation before a shot – are all significantly better than last year and currently ranked in the top 10.
Underlying stats are more relevant long-term than short-term, but these numbers do suggest the Black Cats are playing relatively well and doing so against strong competition.
Yes, there are also statistics that don’t paint as rosy a picture, and the only numbers that really matter are 12 goals allowed (tied for second most), six goals scored (tied for sixth fewest), and only four points earned.
But I believe the Lads are poised to start spinning their silver linings into golden results.
Don’t worry about a thing
‘Cause every little thing gonna be alright
Singing, Don’t worry about a thing
‘Cause every little thing gonna be alright.
