It’ll have been a long ten days for the Detroit Lions fan base between games against AFC East foes, and they’ll gladly welcome the challenge of taking on old friend Aaron Glenn. His New York Jets nearly started 2-0 before coughing up a fourth-quarter lead to the Green Bay Packers last week.
Glenn’s Jets—who haven’t made the playoffs since Dan Campbell was in his first year of coaching in 2010—appear ready to put up more of a fight than some expected throughout the offseason. It’ll be a good challenge
for the Lions to continue improving and should be anything but a penciled-in win.
Below are my six-pack of key stats and matchups for the Lions’ return home looking to make improvements from their mini-bye.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Precious Cargo
After finishing in the bottom half of the league with 23 giveaways last year, the Jets—and especially their signal caller Geno Smith—have suddenly stopped making the costly mistakes that give opponents the football. Smith finished second in the NFL in giveaways and threw a league-high 17 interceptions in only 15 miserable starts last season.
Through two weeks, that has completely flipped. Only two offenses in the NFL have yet to turn the ball over: the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills.
Creating those takeaways is more challenging for the Detroit Lions defense without turnover machine Kerby Joseph. Still, they started the season by forcing three turnovers against the Saints in Week 1, tying their most in a game under defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. The Lions have now forced three turnovers in four different games under Sheppard, but obviously weren’t able to take the ball away from Josh Allen and the Bills offense last week.
Since Sheppard took over as defensive coordinator at the start of last season, the Lions are 9-3 when forcing at least one turnover and a perfect 6-0 when forcing two or more. When they haven’t been able to force a turnover and play complementary football, they’re just 1-6.
Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell have displayed a prowess for punching the pill out, but the question remains: Who else on this Lions roster can prove to be a playmaker and take the football away?
This defense may not be able to consistently stop the Jets offense—or other offenses this season—and simply force them off the field. That makes generating turnovers imperative, starting against one of only two offenses that has yet to give the ball away.
Jettsetting Smith
Keeping the Jets grounded will be a challenge. Turnovers are one thing, but the Lions also need to find areas where they can clip Geno Smith’s wings. In three games against the Lions as Seattle’s starting quarterback, Smith averaged nearly 350 passing yards per game alongside a 60.3% passing success rate, 8.2 yards per attempt, and a 107.2 passer rating—all figures that would have ranked top three among quarterbacks last season.
One area where the Detroit Lions might struggle to contain Smith is if they remain dead-set on throwing the kitchen sink at him instead of being more selective. The Lions’ blitz rate has jumped from 31.7% (8th) last year to 42.2% (5th) this season, and that aggressiveness could cost them against Smith.
While the Packers were able to generate a little heat on Smith late in the game, for the most part, the Jets offense has succeeded when defenses bring extra rushers. Against the blitz this season, Smith is 14-for-18 passing for 177 yards, with a 77.8% completion percentage (4th), 9.8 yards per attempt (3rd), +0.18 EPA/dropback (8th), a 61.1% passing success rate (5th), and a 16.7% explosive pass rate (3rd).
The last thing the Lions defense should do is take defenders out of coverage and help turn the Jets into a top-10 passing attack. Their best bet may be to try to win with four up front and allocate more ammunition to the back end.
Red-Eye Zone
The Detroit Lions defense has had its well-broadcasted struggles this season, and the red zone has been no different. They have allowed touchdowns on nine of ten red-zone possessions, with their 90% red-zone touchdown rate ranking fourth-highest in the NFL.
The Jets offense has scored a touchdown on four of six red-zone possessions so far this season, but when you double-click into the numbers, they’ve been even better when the field shrinks and the defense essentially gains a 12th defender with the back of the end zone.
In the red zone, the Jets offense has successfully moved the ball with +0.37 EPA/play (5th) and a 60.0% success rate (4th), finding success in the margins by bulldozing its way to a top-three yards-before-contact mark in the run game while also ranking top 10 in yards after catch.
Holding Smith, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson to three points—or even forcing a turnover—on just one trip inside the 20 would be huge. So far, about the only thing that has consistently stopped the Jets’ operation in the red zone has been itself, with three penalties, the second-most in the NFL.
Prior to last year, the Lions defense had developed a bend-but-don’t-break identity, winning situational football in the red zone and on third down under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Week 3 provides an opportunity for Kelvin Sheppard’s unit to start taking a step back in that direction.
Protecting the Pilot
For the third straight week, the Lions defense will face a formidable, well-built offensive line. The banner players are the bookend recent first-round offensive tackles, Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, but the Jets also added one starter this offseason who caught my attention: left guard Dylan Parham, a player I highlighted as a potential bargain-bin option for the Detroit Lions in free agency and my favorite available guard in terms of value.
The former high school tight end and triple jumper moved all across the offensive line at Memphis and with the Las Vegas Raiders, but is now able to concentrate on left guard. Through the first two weeks of the season, he is off to a career-year start.
Parham is PFF’s highest-rated guard with a 92.8 PFF offensive grade through two weeks. Parham has always been a strong run blocker and appears to be putting it all together next to Fashanu, while also excelling as a pass protector. He has allowed only six hurries across 78 pass-blocking repetitions without surrendering a sack or quarterback hit, while also avoiding any penalties.
Parham playing at this high of a level will challenge Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams, and Skyler Gill-Howard to outperform him and win on the interior for the Lions defense. Shutting down the Jets’ inside run game and generating pressure on Smith up the middle will be two areas of focus, and Detroit’s defensive tackles will have their hands full trying to disrupt the protection around the pilot.
Early Departure
The Jets defense, now with Aaron Glenn calling plays and bolstered by the reunion with stalwart linebacker Demario Davis and the addition of second-overall pick David Bailey, has surprisingly been much improved through its first two games—even while extending its streak without an interception to 19 straight games.
The Jets defense ranks second in yards per play allowed (4.0), tied for fourth in EPA/play (-0.25), ninth in success rate (39.4%), and third in defensive DVOA (-29.7%). They’ve done it while, interestingly, playing nickel defense at a top-five rate on nearly 78% of their snaps, using the second-lightest average box in the league, and playing the third-fewest snaps with eight or more defenders in the box.
Even with that lighter personnel usage—a stark contrast from Glenn’s tenure with the Lions—they’ve beaten the pulp out of the Titans and Packers offenses. That has especially been the case on early-down plays from under center, where they’ve held opponents to only 3.48 yards per play across 25 such snaps.
On those plays, the Jets have recorded -0.40 EPA/play (1st) and a 32.0% offensive success rate (2nd), while creating plenty of disruption with four tackles for loss (including one sack), two forced fumbles, and a pass breakup. Defensive tackles T’Vondre Sweat and Jowon Briggs, along with safeties Dane Belton and Andre Cisco, have been major advantages for the defense as early-down run-game enforcers.
The Lions will need to win on early downs, where they rely on under center formations, to set up manageable third downs, possess the football, and move downfield with regularity. They can’t allow the Jets to restrict them offensively and once again leave the Lions defense on the field for a majority of the game, chugging air.
Ground Control to Major Goff
Once Jared Goff and the Lions offense do get to third down, they’ll face a Jets defense as disciplined and determined as Tom Hanks’ character Viktor Navorski in The Terminal.
The Jets defense has faced 21 third-down snaps and allowed only five conversions. That 23.8% third-down conversion rate makes them the second-stingiest third-down defense in the NFL. On third down, the Jets pass defense is throwing out plenty of single-high safety looks (71.4%, 6th) and man coverage (52.4%, 9th).
They’re also finding success by getting off the ball in a hurry, with a league-leading 0.63-second team average pass-rush get-off. They’re getting off the snap quicker than me pointing the air-conditioning vent directly at my face after boarding an airplane.
That immediate burst off the line will put plenty of pressure on the Lions offensive line, with Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller returning after missing the Bills game and Tate Ratledge dealing with an elbow injury.
The Lions offense will have to earn everything on money downs. Goff processing quickly and getting the ball to his weapons, while the offensive line maintains the integrity of the pocket, will be an ongoing battle against a Jets defense with the likes of Bailey and Jermaine Johnson II pinning their ears back.
Improving upon their 19th-ranked 37.5% third-down conversion rate against this fierce Jets defense will be a significant test for Drew Petzing and his unit.
